Trends and Patterns for Gun Homicide in Trinidad and Tobago During the Early Years of the Twenty-First Century: A Data-Driven Analysis

Abstract

During the early years of the twenty-first century, gun-violence has been the primary form of violence negatively impacting the image of Trinidad and Tobago on the international front. Any attempt to reverse trends characterized by unprecedented high homicide rates has to be predicated upon objective principles reflecting trends and patterned relationships associated with this emergent national scourge. The chapter is descriptive, yet, at the same time explanatory. It seeks to examine temporal trends in gun homicide and related factors that are associated with such trends in the context of Trinidad and Tobago between the calendar years 2000 and 2019. Using a statistical datafile of homicide cases for the period 2000–2019, a host of statistical techniques including univariate statistical analysis, bivariate statistical techniques and binomial logistic regression are applied to examine statistical facts in accordance with objective principles. The available data permit analyses targeting antecedent factors such as time, police jurisdiction, homicide motive, age of victim and sex of victim. The results yield temporal and spatial impacts on gun homicide, their prospective differences that are often associated with key observed factors such as homicide motive, detection status, the age of the victim and the sex of the victim. Statistical evidence borne out in this paper has implications for assisting critical stakeholders in their quest to embark upon decisions that could be instrumental in reducing the prevalence of gun-violence and especially, gun homicide, the latter being a desirable outcome in taking steps to reduce homicide rates in Trinidad and Tobago.