Abstract
Amongst all the renewable energy resources (RES), solar is the most popular form of energy source and is of particular interest for its widely integration into the power grid. However, due to the intermittent nature of solar source, it is of the greatest significance to forecast solar irradiance to ensure uninterrupted and reliable power supply to serve the energy demand. There are several approaches to perform solar irradiance forecasting, for instance satellite-based methods, sky image-based methods, machine learning-based methods, and numerical weather prediction-based methods. In this paper, we present a review on short-term intra-hour solar prediction techniques known as nowcasting methods using sky images. Along with this, we also report and discuss which sky image features are significant for the nowcasting methods.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Kahl, A., Dujardin, J., Lehning, M.: The bright side of PV production in snow-covered mountains. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 116(4), 1162–1167 (2019)
Waldau, A.J.: Snapshot of photovoltaics. Energies 12(5), 7 (2019)
Sobe, A., Elmenreich, W.: Smart microgrids: overview and outlook. In: Proceedings of the ITG INFORMATIK Workshop on Smart Grids, Braunschweig, Germany, September 2012
Wan, C., Zhao, J., Song, Y., Xu, Z., Lin, J., Hu, Z.: Photovoltaic and solar power forecasting for smart grid energy management. CSEE J. Power Energy Syst. 1(4), 38–46 (2015)
Ren, Y., Suganthan, P.N., Srikanth, N.: Ensemble methods for wind and solar power forecasting-a state-of-the-art review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 50, 82–91 (2015)
Ahmed, R., Sreeram, V., Mishra, Y., Arif, M.D.: A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 124 (2020)
Behera, M.K., Majumder, I., Nayak, N.: Solar photovoltaic power forecasting using optimized modified extreme learning machine technique. Int. J. Eng. Sci. Technol. 21(3), 428–438 (2018)
García-Martos, C., Rodríguez, J., Sánchez, M.J.: Forecasting electricity prices and their volatilities using unobserved components. Energy Econ. 33(6), 1227–1239 (2011)
Basaran Filik, U., Gerek, O.N., Kurban, M.: Hourly forecasting of long term electric energy demand using a novel modeling approach. In: 2009 Fourth International Conference on Innovative Computing, Information and Control (ICICIC), pp. 115–118 (2009)
Zhang, J., Verschae, R., Nobuhara, S., Lalonde, J.-F.: Deep photovoltaic nowcasting. Solar Energy 176, 267–276 (2018)
Heinle, A., Macke, A., Srivastav, A.: Automatic cloud classification of whole sky images. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 3(3), 557–567 (2010)
Long, C.N., Sabburg, J.M., Calbó, J., Pagès, D.: Retrieving cloud characteristics from ground-based daytime color all-sky images. J. Atmospheric Oceanic Technol. 23(5), 633–652 (2006)
Kazantzidis, A., Tzoumanikas, P., Bais, A.F., Fotopoulos, S., Economou, G.: Cloud detection and classification with the use of whole-sky ground-based images. Atmos. Res. 113, 80–88 (2012)
Singh, M., Glennen, M.: Automated ground-based cloud recognition. Pattern Anal. Appl. 8(3), 258–271 (2005)
Calbo, J., Sabburg, J.: Feature Extraction from Whole-Sky Ground-Based Images for Cloud-Type Recognition. J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech. 25(1), 3–14 (2008)
Chu, Y., Pedro, H.T.C., Nonnenmacher, L., Inman, R.H., Liao, Z., Coimbra, C.F.M.: A smart image-based cloud detection system for intrahour solar irradiance forecasts. Atmos. Oceanic Tech. 31(9), 1995–2007 (2014)
Otsu, N.: A threshold selection method from gray-level histograms. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 9, 62–66 (1979)
Johnson, R.W., Shields, J.E., Koehler, T.L.: Automated whole sky imaging systems for cloud field assessment. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 17–22 (1993)
Shields, J.E., Karr, M.E., Burden, A.R., Johnson, R.W., Hodgkiss, W.S.: Scientific Report on Whole Sky Imager Characterization of Sky Obscuration by Clouds for the Starfire Optical Range: Scientific Report for AFRL Contract FA9451-008-C-0226. University of California San Diego, Scripps Instiution of Oceanography, Marine Physical Lab
Li, Q., Lu, W., Yan, W.: A hybrid thresholding algorithm for cloud detection on ground-based color images. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 28(10), 1286–1296 (2011)
Cazorla, A., Shields, J.E., Karr, M.E., Olmo, F.J., Burden, A., Alados-Arboledas, L.: Technical note: determination of aerosol optical properties by a calibrated sky imager. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9(17), 6417–6427 (2009)
Huo, J., Lü, D.: Preliminary retrieval of aerosol optical depth from all-sky images. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 27, 21–426 (2010)
Ghonima, M.S., Urquhart, B., Chow, C.W., Shields, J.E., Cazorla, A., Kleissl, J.: A method for cloud detection and opacity classification based on ground based sky imagery. Atmos. Measur. Tech. 5(11), 2881–2892 (2012)
Schmidt, T., Kalisch, J., Lorenz, E., Heinemann, D.: Evaluating the spatio-temporal performance of sky-imager-based solar irradiance analysis and forecasts. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 16(5), 3399–3412 (2016)
Haralick, R., Shanmugam, K., Dinstein, I.: Texture features for image classification. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 3(6) (1973)
Saito, M., Iwabuchi, H.: Cloud discrimination from sky images using a clear-sky index. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 33(8), 1583–1595 (2016)
Marquez, R., Gueorguiev, V., Coimbra, C.: Forecasting of global horizontal irradiance using sky cover indices. Solar Energy Eng. 135(1) (2012)
Marquez, R., Coimbra, C.: Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on cloud tracking image analysis. Sol. Energy 91, 327–336 (2013)
Li, M., Chu, Y., Pedro, H., Coimbra, C.: Quantitative evaluation of the impact of cloud transmittance and cloud velocity on the accuracy of short-term DNI forecasts. Renew. Energy 86, 1362–1371 (2016)
Ineichen, P.: A broadband simplified version of the Solis clear sky model. Sol. Energy 82(8), 758–762 (2008)
Bone, V., Pidgeon, J., Kearney, M., Veeraragavan, A.: Intra-hour direct normal irradiance forecasting through adaptive clear-sky modelling and cloud tracking. Sol. Energy 159, 852–867 (2018)
Pedro, H.T.C., Coimbra, C.F.M., Lauret, P.: Adaptive image features for intra-hour solar forecasts. J. Renew. Sustain. Energy 11(3), 036101 (2019)
Pedro, H.T.C., Larson, D.P., Coimbra, C.F.M.: A comprehensive dataset for the accelerated development and benchmarking of solar forecasting methods. J. Renew. Sustain. Energy 11(3), 036102 (2019)
Nespoli, A., Niccolai, A.: Solar position identification on sky images for photovoltaic nowcasting applications. In: 2020 IEEE International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering and 2020 IEEE Industrial and Commercial Power Systems Europe (EEEIC/I CPS Europe), pp. 1–5 (2020)
Yang, D.: Solardata: An R package for easy access of publicly available solar datasets. Solar Energy 171, (2018)
Augustine, J.A., DeLuisi, J.J., Long, C.N., Augustine, A., DeLuisi, J., Long, N.: SURFRAD-a national surface radiation budget network for atmospheric research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 81(10), 2341–2358 (2000)
Sengupta, M., Xie, Y., Lopez, A., Habte, A., Maclaurin, G., Shelby, J.: The national solar radiation data base (NSRDB). Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 89, 51–60 (2018)
Coimbra, C.F.M., Kleissl, J., Márque, R.C.: Chapter 8 – overview of solar-forecasting methods and a metric for accuracy evaluation (2013)
Zhang, J., Florita, A., Hodge, B., Lu, S., Hamann, H.F., Banunarayanan, V., Brockway, A.M.: A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting. Sol. Energy 111, 157–175 (2015)
Bernecker, D., Riess, C., Angelopoulou, E., Hornegger, J.: Continuous short-term irradiance forecasts using sky images. Sol. Energy 110, 303–315 (2014)
Elmenreich, W., Moll, P., Theuermann, S., Lux, M.: Making simulation results reproducible - Survey, guidelines, and examples based on Gradle and Docker. PeerJ Comput. Sci. 5(e240), 1–27 (2019)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Sharma, E., Elmenreich, W. (2021). A Review on Physical and Data-Driven Based Nowcasting Methods Using Sky Images. In: Arai, K. (eds) Advances in Information and Communication. FICC 2021. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1364. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73103-8_24
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73103-8_24
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-73102-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-73103-8
eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0)