Abstract
The severe drought that gripped many countries in Africa in the mid-1970s gave rise to this study of the possible connection with external or internal conflict. In this previously unpublished work from 1981, ten African countries with different impacts are systematically compared with the help of three different models for how drought might connect to armed conflict. Peter Wallensteen finds complex chains of influence, where the standing of nomadic groups may be a key. This work is highly relevant for the discussion of climate change and conflict.
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Notes
- 1.
This text has been an in-house document and is here published for the first time. This is an abbreviated version, where the empirical sections and the appendices with data have been excluded. The full text is available with the author. The manuscript was finished in November 1981, when it was submitted to the funder, SAREC.
- 2.
Kark, R.K. 1962. “Food and Hunger in a World of Turmoil” in The Role of Food in World Peace. Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, pp. 46–47.
- 3.
Sorokin, Pitirim A.1975. Hunger as a Factor in Human Affairs, The University Press of Florida, Gainesville, pp. 223.
- 4.
Tilly, C., Tilly, L.·, and Tilly, R. 1975. The Rebellious Century, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass, 1975, quote from p. 85, discussion on link to food prices, for France, p. 75 and for Germany, p. 214.
- 5.
A highly interesting article on disaster and conflict is Quarantelli, E.L. and Dynes, Russel R. 1976. “Community Conflict: Its Absence and its Presence in Natural Disasters,” Mass Emergencies, 1, pp. 139–152
- 6.
Cf. Gurr, T.R. 1970. Why Men Rebel, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
- 7.
Such perceptions are described in Derrick, J.1977, “The Great West African Drought, 1972–1974,” African Affairs, 76 (305): 537–586 and in Bell Pierre, “Le Coup d'etat militaire au Tchad,” Le Monde Diplomatique, Mai 1975.
- 8.
This actually parallels the results in my study of major power relations from 1816 to 1976: economic rivalries may result in tensions, but were seldom related to wars. Symbolic or ideological issues had considerably closer connections to confrontations and wars. See Wallensteen, Peter 1981. “Incompatibility, Confrontation and War: Four Models and Three Historical Systems, 1816-1976,” Journal of Peace Research 18 (1): 57-90, specifically p 84.
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Wallensteen, P. (2021). Disaster and Conflict: Conflict Formations in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, 1971–1976. In: Peter Wallensteen: A Pioneer in Making Peace Researchable. Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice, vol 30. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-62848-2_29
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-62848-2_29
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