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Forecasting People’s Influx on Mexico City Metrobus Line 1 Using a Fractal Analysis

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GIS LATAM (GIS LATAM 2020)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 1276))

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Abstract

Metrobus Line 1 user’s influx has increased significantly year by year since its operations beginning at 2005, the amount of Metrobus users increase day by day in every line, even with new routes and most BRT unit, it menas that Metrobus system has not a prospective model to determine the amount of users that the system will have every month and with this information, stablish an improvement planning to avoid user’s delays. This paper presents a fractal analysis of Metrobus line 1 users influx as a forecast model that allows us to know the people increase and the impact it will have in the future to help in the decision making process with an ARFIMA model to predict Metrobus Line 1 user’s monthly influx for every month during years 2020, 2021 and 2022, analyzing their behavior Metrobus line 1 infrastructure planning including rides, stations extension and user’s limit can be improved.

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Acknowledgments

This project was funded under the following grants: SIP-IPN: No-20201054, SIP-IPN: No-20201606 and the support of DEV-IPN Instituto Politecnico Nacional.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto Politécnico Nacional, DEV, SEPI-ESIQIE, SARACS Research Group ESIME Zacatenco, Mexico City, Mexico

    Vladimir Avalos-Bravo

  2. Instituto Politécnico Nacional, DEV, SEPI-ESCOM, Mexico City, Mexico

    Chadwick Carreto Arellano

  3. Instituto Politécnico Nacional, CDA, SARACS Research Group ESIME Zacatenco, Mexico City, Mexico

    Diego Alfredo Padilla Pérez

  4. Instituto Politécnico Nacional, DEV, Mexico City, Mexico

    Macario Hernández Cruz

Authors
  1. Vladimir Avalos-Bravo
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  2. Chadwick Carreto Arellano
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  3. Diego Alfredo Padilla Pérez
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  4. Macario Hernández Cruz
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Vladimir Avalos-Bravo .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto Politécnico Nacional, México, Mexico

    Miguel Felix Mata-Rivera

  2. Instituto Politécnico Nacional, México, Mexico

    Roberto Zagal-Flores

  3. El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Chetumal, Mexico

    Javier Arellano Verdejo

  4. El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Chetumal, Mexico

    Hugo Enrique Lazcano Hernandez

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Avalos-Bravo, V., Arellano, C.C., Pérez, D.A.P., Cruz, M.H. (2020). Forecasting People’s Influx on Mexico City Metrobus Line 1 Using a Fractal Analysis. In: Mata-Rivera, M.F., Zagal-Flores, R., Arellano Verdejo, J., Lazcano Hernandez, H.E. (eds) GIS LATAM. GIS LATAM 2020. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1276. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59872-3_7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59872-3_7

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-59871-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-59872-3

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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