Projections of Electricity Demand in European Cities Using Downscaled Population Scenarios

Abstract

This work projects future residential electricity demand derived from cities and municipalities’ population and residential land-use projections. Starting from national-level energy intensity data, we derived statistically downscaled residential electricity consumption with the aim to disaggregate residential electricity at the local administrative unit level for all EU member states in the year 2050. The intensity in 2050 is obtained from population density that, in turn, depends on the evolution of population and residential land-use. Residential land-use is projected to 2050 according to a model linked to population trajectories at the LAU level via the share-of-growth method. Finally, country-level intensity multiplied by the projected value of LAU residential area returns the electricity demand for every LAU. The results suggest that the amount of electricity required by cities depends on their land-use patterns, but with an evident between-and-within-country heterogeneity. The national average temperature does not provide significant effects over the evolution of electricity demand, highlighting the need for more detailed climate-related variables. This evidence poses significant challenges for the planning of future cities because it points out how the current patterns of land-use will need to be properly categorized with respect to the development of future electricity requirements.