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The Context of Investing

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Abstract

This chapter presents an analysis of the exterior context in which investing, company building, finance, and economics are currently operating. It brings to the forefront the biggest task of our time, namely solving the tension between: (1) our current economic model that is based on inflation, ongoing growth and debt in order to survive in the short-term at the expense of growing inequality, loss of asset value, and future generations while risking humanity’s existence; (2) exponentially growing technologies that are massively deflationary while creating abundance; and (3) the global grand challenges with massive existential threats. Therefore, I invite you to look at the hidden evolutionary forces operating under the cover in terms of past and future progress and how disruptive technologies, the compounded ingenuity of humanity’s collective evolution, are currently contributing positively to our planet’s health and humanity’s well-being. Whether the context is health, mobility, transportation, the connected world, the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, artificial intelligence, augmented intelligence, virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), brain-computer interfaces, or the convergence of them all, I suspect you will consider the result of the analysis to be rather promising. Evolutionary forces have endowed humanity with the necessary resources, technological know-how, innovation, creativity, and massive amounts of capital to create mindboggling technology and evolving mindsets that can conspire to address existential threats.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    An earlier version of this section was published on medium.com, see Bozesan (31 March 2020).

  2. 2.

    https://tinyurl.com/t8lcmc6

  3. 3.

    https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation

  4. 4.

    https://tinyurl.com/u2uupjm and https://tinyurl.com/uy48874

  5. 5.

    https://tinyurl.com/urzk5dd min. 20:51

  6. 6.

    https://tinyurl.com/j8b5tt8 and https://tinyurl.com/uc5mtn5

  7. 7.

    https://tinyurl.com/rgxhpx9

  8. 8.

    https://tinyurl.com/thf7flm

  9. 9.

    https://tinyurl.com/vkgmnb3

  10. 10.

    https://tinyurl.com/w4pzpbb

  11. 11.

    See, for example, free Ivy League courses at https://tinyurl.com/yx4quugj

  12. 12.

    https://tinyurl.com/wxoltz2

  13. 13.

    https://tinyurl.com/vpmr6uh

  14. 14.

    Scudelari (19 March 2020).

  15. 15.

    https://tinyurl.com/s82h9ff

  16. 16.

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  17. 17.

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  18. 18.

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  19. 19.

    Yanis Varoufakis, minute 0:47–1:16. Viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm97g0RqYGM

  20. 20.

    https://tinyurl.com/yd62jjjf

  21. 21.

    Diamandis and Kottler (2012), Pinker (2011 & 2018).

  22. 22.

    See, for example, Stiglitz (2010) & Stiglitz (May 2011); Vollmann (2018a) & (2018b), von Weizsäcker and Wijkman (2018).

  23. 23.

    World Economic Forum (2020).

  24. 24.

    Global Sustainable Investment Alliance (December 2019).

  25. 25.

    See, for example, https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/facts/ and https://news.yale.edu/2018/10/08/cheers-and-roses-undergrads-yales-latest-nobel-laureate

  26. 26.

    Galaz et al. (2018).

  27. 27.

    See, for example, the Edelman Trust Barometer (2019) at https://tinyurl.com/t9kutqv

  28. 28.

    Pinker (2018, p. 39).

  29. 29.

    World Economic Forum (2020, Figure IV, p. 8).

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  31. 31.

    https://tinyurl.com/rl2ty86

  32. 32.

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  33. 33.

    Meadows et al. (1972).

  34. 34.

    See, for example, Beckerman (1972); Nordhaus (1973); Nordhaus et al. (1973).

  35. 35.

    Beckerman (1992, p. 482).

  36. 36.

    https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/limits-to-growth-and-related-stuff/

  37. 37.

    Nordhaus (1992, p. 45).

  38. 38.

    Gore (1992).

  39. 39.

    Viewed July 5, 2019 at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol

  40. 40.

    https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-breaking-temperatures-june

  41. 41.

    See, for example, IPCC (2020).

  42. 42.

    International Energy Agency (2018).

  43. 43.

    https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/what-is-the-paris-agreement

  44. 44.

    https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld

  45. 45.

    See, for example, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF10668.pdf

  46. 46.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/265895292191248385?lang=en

  47. 47.

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  48. 48.

    World Commission on Environment and Development (2009, p. 43).

  49. 49.

    https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/

  50. 50.

    https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/11803Official-List-of-Proposed-SDG-Indicators.pdf

  51. 51.

    https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html

  52. 52.

    Randers et al. (2018); Rockström et al. (2009).

  53. 53.

    Von Weizsäcker and Wijkman (2018).

  54. 54.

    Pinker (2011); Stiglitz et al. (2018).

  55. 55.

    Vollmann (2018a) & (2018b).

  56. 56.

    Martin (2015).

  57. 57.

    Dorling (2014); Stiglitz (2011).

  58. 58.

    Stiglitz et al. (2018).

  59. 59.

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/180308-action-plan-sustainable-growth_en

  60. 60.

    See, for example, https://tinyurl.com/y2qq6syw, https://tinyurl.com/rkz92zx, and https://tinyurl.com/tfkv6cd

  61. 61.

    Randers et al. (2018); Randers (2012).

  62. 62.

    See, for example, Gore (2006, 2011); Krugman (2012); Randers et al. (2018); Randers (2012); Sachs (2008).

  63. 63.

    Rosling et al. (2018, pp. 27–39).

  64. 64.

    Roser (2018), & (2018e).

  65. 65.

    Roser and Ortiz-Ospina (2017a/2013) & 2017b/2013).

  66. 66.

    Roser (2018a) & (2018c).

  67. 67.

    Roser (2018b); Roser and Ortiz-Ospina (2018)

  68. 68.

    Ritchie and Roser (2018).

  69. 69.

    http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool

  70. 70.

    Roser and Ortiz-Ospina (2017a/2013a).

  71. 71.

    Roser (2018b). Viewed 5 July 2019 at https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth

  72. 72.

    Roser (2018a), https://tinyurl.com/y7lq78m2

  73. 73.

    Roser and Ortiz-Ospina (2018).

  74. 74.

    Roser (2018d); https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/14/more-than-half-of-countries-are-democratic/

  75. 75.

    Roser and Ritchie (2018a, b).

  76. 76.

    Hasell and Roser (2018).

  77. 77.

    Roser and Ritchie (2018a, b).

  78. 78.

    Rosling et al. (2018, pp. 27–39).

  79. 79.

    Brynjolfsson and McAfee (2014)

  80. 80.

    Rifkin (2011).

  81. 81.

    Schwab (2016).

  82. 82.

    Kurzweil (2005, p. 67).

  83. 83.

    Kurzweil (2005, p. 11).

  84. 84.

    Deikman (1998).

  85. 85.

    Oxtoby et al. (May 1958).

  86. 86.

    Kurzweil (2005, p. 11).

  87. 87.

    Kurzweil asks on p. 46 of The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999), “Can an intelligence create an intelligence more intelligent than itself?”

  88. 88.

    Kurzweil (2005, p. 14).

  89. 89.

    Kurzweil (2005, p. 21).

  90. 90.

    Tegmark (2017, p. 48).

  91. 91.

    Tegmark (2017, p. 22).

  92. 92.

    Tegmark (2017, pp. 22–48).

  93. 93.

    Kurzweil (2005, p. 15).

  94. 94.

    Tegmark (2017, p. 26).

  95. 95.

    Kurzweil (2005, p. 15).

  96. 96.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_personal_computers

  97. 97.

    https://webfoundation.org/about/vision/history-of-the-web/

  98. 98.

    Kurzweil (2005, p. 17)

  99. 99.

    Brynjolfsson and McAfee (2014); Kelly (2016).

  100. 100.

    Kurzweil (2005, p. 21).

  101. 101.

    Bostrom (2014).

  102. 102.

    Tegmark (2017, p. 135).

  103. 103.

    https://futureoflife.org/ai-principles/

  104. 104.

    https://futureoflife.org/augmented-intelligence-summit-2019-2/

  105. 105.

    Moore (1965).

  106. 106.

    Kurzweil (7 March 2001) & (2005, p. 35).

  107. 107.

    https://tinyurl.com/rnbcc27

  108. 108.

    Diamandis and Kotler (2015).

  109. 109.

    https://hbr.org/2016/04/a-chart-that-shows-which-industries-are-the-most-digital-and-why

  110. 110.

    https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ken_Olsen

  111. 111.

    https://tinyurl.com/ybtk4nxx

  112. 112.

    https://tinyurl.com/y9q8yg5q

  113. 113.

    Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, IEA and UNEP (2019, p. 3).

  114. 114.

    https://www.ta.hu-berlin.de/res/co.php?id=14935

  115. 115.

    https://www.ft.com/content/fcb1f970-031c-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3

  116. 116.

    Schwab (2016).

  117. 117.

    https://tinyurl.com/y36zkoku

  118. 118.

    Robinson and Dunning Hotopp (1 October 2016).

  119. 119.

    https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project

  120. 120.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/10/171025140532.htm

  121. 121.

    https://www.cell.com/nucleus-CRISPR

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    https://tinyurl.com/rhfqvuc viewed 3 April 2020.

  123. 123.

    Poinar et al. (2019).

  124. 124.

    Rooney et al. (2018).

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    Regalado (24 August 2018).

  126. 126.

    Li et al. (2019), https://tinyurl.com/ycctkyg3

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    Li et al. (2019), https://tinyurl.com/ycctkyg3

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    Cyranoski and Ledford (26 November 2018) and YouTube video https://tinyurl.com/qrkpf2b

  129. 129.

    Xue et al. (2018).

  130. 130.

    Lander et al. (2019).

  131. 131.

    https://www.humanlongevity.com/; https://benevolent.ai/; https://www.futuragenetics.com/en/; https://www.stealthbt.com/

  132. 132.

    Yamaguchi et al. (9 February 2017).

  133. 133.

    Oberbauer et al. (2015).

  134. 134.

    https://mashable.com/article/tim-cook-apple-health/?europe=true#2_RYZocC7kqU

  135. 135.

    https://www.fredsense.com/

  136. 136.

    https://cambrianinnovation.com/

  137. 137.

    https://labiotech.eu/industrial/imperial-turku-escherichia-coli-propane-biofuels/

  138. 138.

    http://www.modernmeadow.com/

  139. 139.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/lab-grown-meat/

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    https://www.biotopia.net/en/ and https://www.biotopia.net/de/events/biotopiafestival

  141. 141.

    https://www.memphismeats.com/

  142. 142.

    https://organovo.com/

  143. 143.

    https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/15/tel-aviv-university-3d-printed-heart/

  144. 144.

    See https://transcend.me/pages/three-bridges-to-immortality

  145. 145.

    Kurzweil and Grossman (2004).

  146. 146.

    Kurzweil and Grossman (2004).

  147. 147.

    Kurzweil and Grossman (2009).

  148. 148.

    See Kurzweil quote from video at minute 17:30. Viewed 5 August 2018 at https://tinyurl.com/ued3sfn

  149. 149.

    Perera et al. (2016).

  150. 150.

    https://www.livescience.com/59675-body-parts-grown-in-lab.html

  151. 151.

    http://news.mit.edu/2015/laurie-boyer-mending-broken-heart-0803

  152. 152.

    Durairaj et al. (2012).

  153. 153.

    Cavalcanti et al. (2008).

  154. 154.

    Kurzweil and Grossman (2009, pp. 403–406).

  155. 155.

    De Grey and Rae (2007).

  156. 156.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ryxuehnp8k&feature=youtu.be

  157. 157.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ryxuehnp8k&feature=youtu.be

  158. 158.

    http://www.solarpowereurope.org/looking-back-on-a-record-breaking-solar-summer/

  159. 159.

    Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment-Final Report. Viewed 6 July 2019 at https://tinyurl.com/y49xcs8s

  160. 160.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benban_Solar_Park

  161. 161.

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90203041/this-island-nation-is-making-the-fastest-ever-shift-to-renewables

  162. 162.

    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/11/23/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-a-90-efficient-solar-panel/

  163. 163.

    https://tinyurl.com/uo5q2cr

  164. 164.

    https://www.store-dot.com/

  165. 165.

    http://witricity.com/

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  167. 167.

    Korthauer (2018).

  168. 168.

    Tesla SEC filing. Viewed 12 March 2019 at http://ir.tesla.com/node/18941/html

  169. 169.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_1

  170. 170.

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  171. 171.

    From the Abundance 360 conference 2019 introduction https://tinyurl.com/y2trxgxf

  172. 172.

    Willett (19 January 2019). See https://tinyurl.com/sublssc and https://tinyurl.com/t3huy2c

  173. 173.

    Roser and Ortiz-Ospina (2017a/2013).

  174. 174.

    https://aerofarms.com/

  175. 175.

    https://benefitcorp.net/what-is-a-benefit-corporation

  176. 176.

    http://ironox.com/

  177. 177.

    http://spread.co.jp/en/

  178. 178.

    http://www.skysource.org/

  179. 179.

    https://carbon.xprize.org/prizes/carbon/teams

  180. 180.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleph_Farms

  181. 181.

    https://tinyurl.com/y3el5vhm

  182. 182.

    https://www.gfi.org/gfi-research-grant-winners-2019

  183. 183.

    Lynch and Pierrehumbert (2019).

  184. 184.

    Moore and Phillips (2012).

  185. 185.

    https://www.theoceancleanup.com/

  186. 186.

    Austin et al. (2018).

  187. 187.

    Hundertmark et al. (2018).

  188. 188.

    De Pee et al. (June 2018, p. 7).

  189. 189.

    De Pee et al. (June 2018, p. 7).

  190. 190.

    https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/electric-car-supply-chain

  191. 191.

    https://electrek.co/2018/12/27/great-wall-motor-ora-r1-all-electric-urban-car

  192. 192.

    https://tinyurl.com/y29tgcdw

  193. 193.

    See https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-manufacturers/automated-driving-systems

  194. 194.

    Berret (1 October 2018).

  195. 195.

    https://tinyurl.com/yxaqwdrd

  196. 196.

    Heineke et al. (January 2019).

  197. 197.

    https://techcrunch.com/2018/12/03/will-uber-gobble-up-lime-or-fly-off-with-bird/

  198. 198.

    https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/lidar.html

  199. 199.

    Lee T. (2018b).

  200. 200.

    Arbib and Seba (2017).

  201. 201.

    https://www.who.int/gho/road_safety/mortality/traffic_deaths_number/en/

  202. 202.

    https://futurism.com/waymo-approval-open-driverless-car-factory-michigan

  203. 203.

    https://futurism.com/report-waymo-unveil-first-driverless-rideshare

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    Pizzuto L et al. (2019).

  205. 205.

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  207. 207.

    Carsten Breitfeld. Viewed 17 March 2019 at https://tinyurl.com/y2xgblcj

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  209. 209.

    Adamchuck (2013).

  210. 210.

    Sylvester (2018).

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  216. 216.

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  217. 217.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6t8BiLK0mbE

  218. 218.

    Arbib and Seba (2017).

  219. 219.

    https://tinyurl.com/zz3t9y9

  220. 220.

    https://www.smarter-together.eu/cities/munich-/

  221. 221.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/209096/share-of-internet-users-in-the-total-world-population-since-2006/

  222. 222.

    https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020.htm#internet-2020

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    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44886803

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  225. 225.

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  226. 226.

    https://tinyurl.com/yydk29qq

  227. 227.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/218984/number-of-global-mobile-users-since-2010/

  228. 228.

    http://www.automotivesensors2017.com/

  229. 229.

    https://atap.google.com/jacquard/

  230. 230.

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  231. 231.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/04/160413140118.htm

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    https://tinyurl.com/y6p9md33

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  236. 236.

    Gerardo et al. (2018).

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    https://tinyurl.com/y4tec3or

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    https://tinyurl.com/y2uyj3py

  239. 239.

    https://tinyurl.com/yyfhvj5p

  240. 240.

    https://openbionics.com/hero-arm/

  241. 241.

    https://www.darpa.mil/program/darpa-robotics-challenge

  242. 242.

    https://www.bostondynamics.com/atlas

  243. 243.

    https://kodlab.seas.upenn.edu/

  244. 244.

    https://www.ri.cmu.edu/

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    https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2016/08/first-autonomous-entirely-soft-robot

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    http://www.ros.org/

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    https://tinyurl.com/y86gro75

  248. 248.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36376966

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    https://tinyurl.com/hwvoxrk

  250. 250.

    https://www.dailydot.com/debug/uniqlo-replaced-tokyo-warehouse-staff-robots/

  251. 251.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMQyZAyP228

  252. 252.

    https://misorobotics.com/

  253. 253.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFCPKmLAZb4

  254. 254.

    https://www.smartechanalysis.com/reports/3d-printing-dentistry-2016/

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    https://authentise.com/news

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    https://tinyurl.com/y4wlcap9

  257. 257.

    http://www.lowesinnovationlabs.com/bespoke-designs

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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCzS2FZoB-I&t=4s

  259. 259.

    https://www.fbr.com.au/view/hadrian-x

  260. 260.

    https://www.fieldready.org/

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    https://www.stratasys.com/resources/search/white-papers/design-for-ddm

  262. 262.

    Kelly et al. (2019, January).

  263. 263.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190131143330.htm

  264. 264.

    See, for example, https://hbr.org/2018/03/how-augmented-reality-will-make-surgery-safer

  265. 265.

    Orcutt (2018, p. 18).

  266. 266.

    Proust (2009).

  267. 267.

    Naudé (January 2009).

  268. 268.

    Casey and Vigna (2018, pp. 10–16).

  269. 269.

    Krugman (2009) & (2012); Stiglitz (2010).

  270. 270.

    Allen (2013).

  271. 271.

    https://tinyurl.com/yd8lxdzk

  272. 272.

    Casey and Vigna (2018, pp. 10–16).

  273. 273.

    https://moni.com/

  274. 274.

    https://tinyurl.com/yxnxtfhh

  275. 275.

    https://id2020.org/

  276. 276.

    Casey and Vigna (2018, p. 14).

  277. 277.

    Ibid.

  278. 278.

    Ibid.

  279. 279.

    Brunnhuber (2019, pp. 10–11).

  280. 280.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3080098

  281. 281.

    Surowiecki (May/June 2018, p. 28).

  282. 282.

    Surowiecki (May/June 2018, p. 30).

  283. 283.

    https://www.loc.gov/law/help/cryptocurrency/china.php

  284. 284.

    https://support.google.com/adspolicy/answer/2464998

  285. 285.

    https://tinyurl.com/ybt6wfck

  286. 286.

    https://libra.org/en-US/white-paper/

  287. 287.

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Bozesan, M. (2020). The Context of Investing. In: Integral Investing. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54016-6_1

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