Abstract
Turning what we think we know about the future into public policy is not easy. This chapter delves, if shallowly, into this contentious topic. Specific focuses of the chapter are technology assessment (with autonomous vehicles as a running example), the roles and limitations of free markets, and sustainability. The chapter discusses the disruptive impacts of wild cards and black swans.
I think anyone that tries to predict more than five to ten years ahead is a bit of an idiot.
So many things can change unexpectedly.
—James Lovelock
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Notes
- 1.
By some accounts, that collision involved a human driver crashing into an AV. The manufacturer claimed this incident revealed nothing wrong with the AV system. I heard this kind of upside-down logic once before, when karate master Mas Oyama knocked out a bull by punching it in the head. Oyama’s detractors said, “Nah, the bull was drugged.” As if just anybody could punch out even a drugged bull.
- 2.
My lecture slides on other aspects of AV technology assessment are downloadable from Slideshare, http://www.slideshare.net/fredphillips/the-selfdriving-car?qid=0c2ac803-13a0-4ae1-9dcb-5cb56e6d9a0b&v=&b=&from_search=1
- 3.
Joe Rabinovitsj.
Reference
Bonnefon J-F, Shariff A, Rahwan I (2015) Autonomous vehicles need experimental ethics: are we ready for utilitarian cars? http://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.03346v1.pdf
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Phillips, F. (2019). Policy and the Future. In: What About the Future?. Science, Technology and Innovation Studies. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8_12
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8_12
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