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California’s 48th Congressional District: Sunset for Reagan Country

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Abstract

Long-time incumbent Dana Rohrabacher lost his bid for reelection in 2018 as Democrats successfully flipped seven seats in California, the epicenter of anti-Trump sentiment. The primary featured a serious Republican opponent and several Democratic candidates. Harley Rouda, a former Republican, was endorsed by national Democrats and narrowly advanced to the general election. Rohrabacher, a former Reagan speechwriter representing a region long known as Reagan Country, was relabeled as Putin’s Favorite Congressman and as being out of touch on immigration, healthcare, and climate change. Shifting demographics, high turnout, and high spending also contributed to a surprisingly comfortable win for Rouda.

Authors are listed alphabetically and contributed equally to this chapter.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    It is emblematic of the dismal prospects for Republicans in California that Poizner rebranded himself as a political independent in 2018, using his wealth and name recognition to attempt to return for a second and final term as Insurance Commissioner. He advanced to the general election under California’s top two primary system and received a number of newspaper endorsements, but lost to a Democrat in the general election.

  2. 2.

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  3. 3.

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  4. 4.

    Jeff Horseman, “Prop 6 in California Will Spark Turnout Battle That Could Set Fate of U.S. House,” Riverside Press-Enterprise, July 12, 2018, https://www.pe.com/2018/07/12/prop-6-in-ca-will-spark-turnout-battle-that-could-set-fate-of-u-s-house/

  5. 5.

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  6. 6.

    US Census Bureau, Congressional District 48, https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=06&cd=48. Tamara Keith, “Democrats Demolish the ‘Orange Curtain’ in Orange County,” NPR, November 20, 2018, https://www.npr.org/2018/11/20/669330214/democrats-demolish-the-orange-curtain-in-orange-county

  7. 7.

    Jonathan Lansner, “12 O.C. Cities Rank Among Nation’s 100 Priciest for Homes. Which Ones Made the List?” Orange County Register, September 16, 2016, https://www.ocregister.com/2016/09/16/12-oc-cities-rank-among-nations-100-priciest-for-homes-which-ones-made-the-list/. Marilyn Kahfus, “8 Orange County ZIPs in Top 100 Priciest for U.S. Home Sales,” Orange County Register, December 20, 2017, https://www.ocregister.com/2017/12/19/8-orange-county-zips-in-top-100-priciest-for-u-s-home-sales/

  8. 8.

    Saba Waheed, Hugo Romero, Carolina Sarmiento Orange County on the Cusp of Change (Los Angeles: UCI Community & Labor Project and the UCLA Labor Center, 2014), https://www.labor.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2014/07/FINAL-OC-report-for-Web.pdf

  9. 9.

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  10. 10.

    US Census Bureau. “Congressional District 48.” https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=06&cd=48. US Census Bureau, “2013–2017 ACS 5-Year Narrative Profile, Orange County, California,” https://www.census.gov/acs/www/data/data-tables-and-tools/narrative-profiles/2017/

  11. 11.

    Loan Kieu Le and Phi Hong Su, “Party Identification and the Immigrant Cohort Hypothesis: The Case of Vietnamese Americans,” Politics, Groups, and Identities 6, no. 4 (2018): 743–763.

  12. 12.

    David Greene, “Vietnamese Vote Is Key to California’s 48th Congressional District Race,” NPR, October 19, 2018. https://www.npr.org/2018/10/19/658721663/vietnamese-vote-is-key-to-californias-48th-congressional-district-race

  13. 13.

    Mark Baldassare, “Tectonic Shifts in Orange County,” Public Policy Institute of California, October 2018, https://www.ppic.org/blog/tectonic-shifts-in-orange-county/

  14. 14.

    “2018 House Ratings,” Cook Political Report, https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

  15. 15.

    For additional details on the 2016 contest between Darrell Issa and Doug Applegate, see Laura J. Brantley and Marcia L. Godwin, “California 49th Congressional District: A Near Upset in the Golden State,” in The Roads to Congress 2016: American Elections in a Divided Landscape, ed. Sean D. Foreman and Marcia L. Godwin (Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017): 77–91.

  16. 16.

    Robert W Stewart, “Rohrabacher’s ‘Wild’ ’60s Songs Surface: Counterculture: ‘That Was Then, This is Now,’ the Conservative Congressman Says of Anti-Establishment Lyrics Being Published by Spy Magazine,” Los Angeles Times, September 26, 1992, http://articles.latimes.com/1992-09-26/news/mn-903_1_spy-magazine. Gebe Martinez, “Rohrabacher Emerges as Influential Player: Congress: Once Dismissed as on the Right-wing Fringe, He Now is Seen as Having an Impact as Part of the House Majority. But He Still Clashes with GOP Colleagues,” Los Angeles Times, August 28, 1995, http://articles.latimes.com/1995-08-28/news/mn-39777_1_dana-rohrabacher/2

  17. 17.

    Patrick Gavin, “Washington Wall: Dana Rohrabacher.” Politico, June 21, 2011, https://www.politico.com/story/2011/06/washington-wall-dana-rohrabacher-057403

  18. 18.

    Stewart.

  19. 19.

    Tim Fernholz, “The Race to Check Donald Trump in America’s Conservative Utopia.” Quartz, October 30, 2018, https://qz.com/1434183/dana-rohrabacher-v-harley-rouda-donald-trump-and-the-2016-election/

  20. 20.

    “Rohrabacher Goes into Burma Illegally, Vows to Aid Students.” Los Angeles Times, November 16, 1988, http://articles.latimes.com/1988-11-16/news/mn-41_1_dana-rohrabacher

  21. 21.

    Davis Richardson, “Blackwater Founder Erik Prince to Host Fundraiser for Russia-Connected Congressman,” Observer, March 9, 2018. https://observer.com/2018/03/blackwater-founder-erik-prince-to-host-fundraiser-for-russia-connected-congressman/. Erick Erickson, “Fight Club,” Red State, March 6, 2013, https://www.redstate.com/erick/2013/03/06/fight-club/

  22. 22.

    Eric Garcia, “Rohrabacher Says It’s OK to Not Sell Homes to Gay People,” Roll Call, May 25, 2018, https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/rohrabacher-says-it-ok-not-to-sell-homes-to-gay-people

  23. 23.

    Garcia.

  24. 24.

    Jennifer Medina, “He’s a Former Republican Taking on Dana Rohrabacher. Can He Win?” New York Times, September 7, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/07/us/harley-rouda-congress-republican.html

  25. 25.

    Jim Weiker, “Former HER Executive Rouda Running for Congress in California,” The Columbus Dispatch, July 14, 2017, https://www.dispatch.com/entertainmentlife/20170714/former-her-executive-rouda-running-for-congress-in-california

  26. 26.

    US House of Representatives, U.S. Congressman Harley Rouda, n.d., http://rouda.house.gov/about

  27. 27.

    Spencer Custodio, “Rohrabacher Leads in the 48th CD, Just 73 Votes Separate Democrats Keirstead & Rouda,” Voice of OC, June 5, 2018, https://voiceofoc.org/2018/06/rohrabacher-leads-in-the-48th-congressional-district-followed-by-democrat-keirstead/

  28. 28.

    California Secretary of State, Statewide Direct Primary Election – Statement of the Vote, June 5, 2018, July 13, 2018, https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results/statewide-direct-primary-june-5-2018/statement-vote/

  29. 29.

    Bryan Schatz, “Ugly Feuds, “Drunken Stupidity,” Paul McCartney, and a Race That Could Flip Congress,” Mother Jones, May 22, 2018, https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/05/ugly-feuds-drunken-stupidity-paul-mccartney-and-a-race-that-could-flip-congress/

  30. 30.

    Andre Mouchard, “New California House Members Hill, Levin, Porter and Rouda Support Pelosi’s Speaker Bid, But Cisneros Wants Change,” Orange County Registrar, November 28, 2018, https://www.ocregister.com/2018/11/28/new-california-house-members-hill-levin-porter-and-rouda-support-pelosis-speaker-bid-but-cisneros-wants-change/

  31. 31.

    Isaac Arnsdorf and Benjamin Oreskes, “Putin’s Favorite Congressman,” Politico, November 23, 2016, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/putin-congress-rohrabacher-trump-231775

  32. 32.

    Arnsdorf and Oreskes.

  33. 33.

    Adam Entous, “House Majority Leader to Colleagues in 2016: ‘I Think Putin Pays’ Trump,” The Washington Post, May 17, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/house-majority-leader-to-colleagues-in-2016-i-think-putin-pays-trump/2017/05/17/515f6f8a-3aff-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.dee258feb8df

  34. 34.

    Editorial Board, “Re-elect Dana Rohrabacher to Represent the 48th District.” Orange County Register, October 28, 2018, https://www.ocregister.com/2018/10/28/re-elect-dana-rohrabacher-to-represent-the-48th-district/

  35. 35.

    “CD48 Remains Tight,” Monmouth University Polling Institute, https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ca_102318/

  36. 36.

    Monmouth University Polling Institute.

  37. 37.

    Adam Nagourney and Robert Gebeloff, “In Orange County, a Republican Fortress Turns Democratic,” New York Times, December 31, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/us/orange-county-republicans-democrats-demographics.html

  38. 38.

    Dana Rohrabacher, “Healthcare Is Personal for Me,” October 2, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x85Gf5kAXSQ. Nathaniel Weixel, “GOP lawmaker’s ad pledges support for pre-existing condition protections.” The Hill, October 3, 2018. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/409748-new-rohrabacher-ad-pledges-support-for-pre-existing-condition-protections

  39. 39.

    US House of Representatives. “H.Amdt.748 – 113th Congress (2013–2014).” https://www.congress.gov/amendment/113th-congress/house-amendment/748/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22rohrabacher%22%2C%22marijuana%22%2C%22marijuana%22%5D%7D

  40. 40.

    Peter Hecht, “Dana Rohrabacher’s Last Stand: California Conservative’s Fate Could Hinge on Cannabis Vote,” Leafly, March 16, 2018, https://www.leafly.com/news/politics/dana-rohrabachers-last-stand-california-conservatives-fate-could-hinge-on-cannabis-vote

  41. 41.

    Louis Jacobson, “In Year of Strikes, Education Plays a Big Role in Elections,” Governing, October 17, 2018, https://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-education-campaigns-state-2018-elections.html

  42. 42.

    “Audition,” House Majority PAC, n.d. (2018), www.thehousemajoritypac.com/our-work/california/young-kim-audition

  43. 43.

    “Luxury Space,” House Majority PAD, n.d. (2018), www.thehousemajoritypac.com/our-work/california/dana-rohrabacher-luxury-space

  44. 44.

    Elena Schneider, “Inside the GOP’s California Nightmare,” Politico, December 1, 2018, https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/01/california-2018-gop-what-happened-1036940

  45. 45.

    Harley for Congress, 2018, https://www.harleyforcongress.com/video/

  46. 46.

    Jeff Horseman, “Town Halls Helped Shape the Midterm. Will They in 2020?” Riverside Press-Enterprise, November 21, 2018, https://www.pe.com/2018/11/21/town-halls-helped-shape-the-midterm-will-they-in-2020/

  47. 47.

    Michael Finnegan and Christine Mai-Duc, “Obama Implores Californians to Rise Up Against ‘Anger and Division’ of Trump and GOP,” Los Angeles Times, September 8, 2018, https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-obama-california-house-20180908-story.html

  48. 48.

    Karl Evers-Hillstrom, “Each of the Five Most Expensive House Races Ever Took Place in 2018,” Center for Responsive Politics, December 10, 2018, https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/12/each-of-the-five-most-expensive-house-races-ever-took-place-in-2018/

  49. 49.

    Center for Responsive Politics, “California District 48 – Outside Spending,” March 26, 2019 data, https://www.opensecrets.org/races/outside-spending?cycle=2018&id=CA48&spec=N

  50. 50.

    Jeff Horseman, “How High Will Midterm Turnout Be?” Daily Democrat, November 4, 2018, https://www.dailydemocrat.com/2018/11/04/how-high-will-midterm-voter-turnout-be/

  51. 51.

    Dana Rohrabacher, “OC Rep Rohrabacher Addresses Supporters as He Faces Possibility of Losing Seat,” November 6, 2018, https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/video/3969572-oc-rep-rohrabacher-addresses-supporters-as-he-faces-possibility-of-losing-seat/

  52. 52.

    Paul Bond, “Outgoing GOP Congressman Wants to Be a Hollywood Screenwriter,” Hollywood Reporter, December 7, 2018, https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/dana-rohrabacher-wants-be-a-hollywood-screenwriter-1166293

  53. 53.

    Jordan Graham, “Defeated Rep. Dana Rohrabacher Moving to Maine After 30 Years Representing Coastal Orange County,” Orange County Registrar, December 13, 2018, https://www.ocregister.com/2018/12/13/defeated-rep-dana-rohrabacher-moving-to-maine-after-30-years-representing-coastal-orange-county/

  54. 54.

    Marilyn Kalfus, “Ex-Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s Costa Mesa Home on the Market for $1.69 Million,” Orange County Register, April 2, 2019, https://www.ocregister.com/2019/04/02/ex-rep-dana-rohrabachers-costa-mesa-home-on-market-at-1-69-million/

  55. 55.

    Keith.

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Brantley, L.J., Godwin, M.L. (2020). California’s 48th Congressional District: Sunset for Reagan Country. In: Foreman, S., Godwin, M., Wilson, W. (eds) The Roads to Congress 2018. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19819-0_6

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