Abstract
The technique of criminal profiling has proliferated over recent decades, despite a remarkable lack of empirically rigorous evidence concerning its accuracy. Notwithstanding the absence of evidence, the very circumstance of the continued use of profiles by police investigators is often regarded as proof of their accuracy. This phenomenon is essentially informed by an “operational utilitarian argument.” Namely, anecdotal evaluations of criminal profiles sponsor their continued use. This chapter is concerned with a series of empirical studies that systematically test the reliability of such anecdotal evaluations concerning the perceived accuracy of criminal profiles. The results of these studies demonstrate the unreliability of anecdotal evaluations and highlight the weakness of such an argument.
The following three chapters of this book will discuss a number of studies evaluating various aspects of criminal profiles and the practice of constructing a criminal profile. Incumbent to these studies are the use of statistical techniques to test and identify patterns and differences in the data. Any reader unfamiliar with such techniques may refer to Appendix A of this book, in which the elementary principles underpinning such methods are explained to assist in better understanding the subsequent chapters.
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© 2006 Humana Press Inc., Totowa, NJ
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(2006). Smoke and Mirrors. In: Criminal Profiling. Humana Press. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-59745-109-3_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-59745-109-3_2
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