Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Bird Conservation Status and Meaningful Socioeconomic Correlates in Central America: Results from an Open Access Data-Mining Approach for Parrots Using Machine Learning Indicate Serious Economic Problems

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Central American Biodiversity

Abstract

It is well known and documented that human impacts of economic growth in combination with social factors are threatening many of the current critically threatened bird species, such as parrots. This chapter focuses on the contribution of global economic growth to Central American bird species extinction, using categories established by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 189.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • ANAM (Autoridad Nacional del Ambiente)RESOLUCIÓN No. AG—0051-2008 (2008) Por la cual se reglamenta lo relativo a las especies de fauna y flora amenazadas y en peligro de extinción, y sedictan otras disposiciones. http://www.anam.gob.pa/images/stories/documento_aprotegidas/especies_en_extincion.pdf

  • Arcand JL, Guillaumont P, Jeanneney SG (2008) Deforestation and the real exchange rate. J Dev Econ 86:242–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aryal DR, Geissen V, Ponce-Mendoza A, Ramos-Reyes RR, Becker M (2012) Water quality underintensive banana production and extensive pastureland in tropical Mexico. J Plant Nutr Soil Sci 175:553–559

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Balmford A, Long A (1994) Avian endemism and forest loss. Nature 372:623–624

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bhattarai M, Hammig M (2001) Institutions and the environmental kuznets curve for deforestation; a crosscountry analysis for latin America, Africa and Asia. World Dev 29:995–1010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BirdLife International (2008) Critically endangered birds: a global audit. Cambridge, UK: BirdLife International. 16p. http://www.birdlife.org/news/news/2008/09/Complete_Critical%20Birds_superlowres.pdf

  • BirdLife International (2012) Country profile: several countries. http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/country

  • Bocco G (2011) Human population, economic activities, and wild bird conservation in Mexico: factors influencing their relationships at two different geopolitical scales. Revista Mexicana de Biodivers 82:1267–1278

    Google Scholar 

  • Booth DE (2004) Hooked on growth: economic addictions and the environment. Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham

    Google Scholar 

  • Both C, Bouwhuis S, Lessells CM, Visser MW (2006) Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 441:81

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Bradshaw CJA, Sodhi NS, Brook BW (2009) Tropical turmoil: a biodiversity tragedy in progress. Front Ecol Env 7:79–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bradshaw CJA, Giam X, Sodhi NS (2010) Evaluating the relative environmental impact of countries. PLoS ONE 5(5):e10440

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brash AR (1987) The history of avian extinction and forest conversion on puerto rico. Biol Conserv 39:97–111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bravo V, Rodríguez T, Joode B, Canto N, Calderón GR, Turcios M, Menéndez LA, Mejía W, Tatis A, Abrego FZ, Cruz E, Wesseling C (2011) Monitoring pesticide use and associated health hazards in Central America. Intern J Occup Env Health:258–269

    Google Scholar 

  • Brockett CD (1998) Land, power and poverty: agrarian transformation and political conflict in Central America, Second Edition (Thematic Studies in Latin America). Westview, Boulder

    Google Scholar 

  • Brook B, Sodhi N, Bradshaw C (2008) Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends Ecol Evol 23:453–460

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Butler RA, Laurance WF (2008) New strategies for conserving tropical forests. Trends in Ecol Evol 23:469–472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cantú-Guzmán JC, Sánchez-Saldaña ME, Grosselet M, Silva-Gamez J (2008) The illegal parrot trade in Mexico: a comprehensive assessment. Bosques de las Lomas, Mexico: Defenders of Wildlife. http://www.defenders.org/sites/default/files/publications/the_illegal_parrot_trade_in_mexico.pdf

  • Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) (2013) The World Factbook. URL:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html

  • Clausen R, York R (2008) Economic growth and marine biodiversity: influence of human social structure on decline of marine trophic levels. Conserv Biol 22:458–466

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Cockburn A (2013) A colossal wreck: a road trip through political scandal, corruption, and american culture. Verso, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Conanp (2011) http://procer.conanp.gob.mx/

  • Craig E, Huettmann F (2008) Using “blackbox” algorithms such as TreeNet and random forests for data-mining and for finding meaningful patterns, relationships and outliers in complex ecological data: an overview, an example using golden eagle satellite data and an outlook for a promising future. In: Hsiao-fan Wang (ed) Intelligent data analysis: developing new methodologies through pattern discovery and recovery. IGI Global, Hershey

    Google Scholar 

  • Culas RJ (2007) Deforestation and the environmental kuznets curve: an institutional perspective. Ecol Econ 61:429–437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cushman S, Huettmann F (2010) Spatial complexity, informatics and wildlife conservation. Springer, Tokyo

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Czech B (2008). Prospects for reconciling the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation with technological progress. Conserv Biol 22:1389–1398

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Daly HE, Farley J (2010) Ecological economics, second edition: principles and applications. Island, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Dasgupta P (2001) Human well-being and the natural environment. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Dasgupta P (2007) Nature and the economy*. J App Ecol 44:475–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dauvergne P, Neville KJ (2010) Forests, food, and fuel in the tropics: the uneven social and ecologicalconsequences of the emerging political economy of biofuels. J Peasant Stud 37:631–660

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Dirzo R (2001) Central America, ecosystems of. In: S. Levin et al. (ed) Encyclopedia of biodiversity. Academic, San Diego, pp. 665–676

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Dirzo R, Raven PH (2003) Global state of biodiversity and loss. Annu Rev Env Resour 28: 137–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donald P (2004) Biodiversity impacts of some agricultural commodity production systems. Conserv Biol 18:17–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drew A, Wiersma Yo, Huettmann F (2012) Predictive species and habitat modeling in landscape ecology. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Echeverria-Saenz S, Mena F, Pinnock M, Ruepert C, Solano K, de la Cruz E, Campos B, Sánchez-Ávila J, Lacorte S, Bata C (2012) Environmental hazards of pesticides from pineapple crop production in the Rio Jimenez watershed (Caribbean Coast, Costa Rica). Sci Total Env 440:106–114

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fargione J E, Plevin RJ, Hill JD (2010) The ecological impact of biofuels. Ann Rev Ecol Evol System 41:351–377

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fawcett T (2006) An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognit Lett 27:861–874

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2010) Global forest resources assessment, 2010-Main report. FAO Forestry Paper 163. Rome, Italy. http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/fra2010/en/

  • Fuentes M (2011) Economic growth and biodiversity. Biodivers Conserv 20:3453–3458

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gibson L, Lee TM, Koh LP, Brook BW, Gardner TA, Barlow J, Peres CA, Bradshaw CJA, Laurance WF, Lovejoy T, Sodhi NS (2011) Primary forests are irreplaceable for sustaining tropical biodiversity. Nature 478:378–383

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Glenn F (2011) Neoliberalism, the production of vulnerability and the hobbled state: systemic barriers to climate adaptation. Climate Develop 3(2):159–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grossman G, Krueger A (1995) Economic growth and the environment. Q J Econ 110:353–377

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haggar J, Medina B, Aguilar RM, Munoz C (2013) Land use change on coffee farms in southern Guatemala and its environmental consequences. Env Manage 51:811–823

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han J, Kamber M, Pei J (2006) Data mining: concepts and techniques, second edition (the morgan kaufmann series in data management systems). Morgan Kaufmann, Burlington

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvey C, Alpizar F, Chacón M, Madrigal R (2005) Assessing linkages between agriculture and biodiversity in central america: historical overview and future perspectives. Mesoamerican & Caribbean Region, conservation science program. The Nature Conservancy (TNC), San José

    Google Scholar 

  • He F (2009) Price of prosperity: economic development and biological conservation in China. J App Ecol 46:511–515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henriques W R, Jeffers D, Lacher Jr. TE, Kendall RJ (1997) Agrochemical use on banana plantations in Latin America: perspectives on ecological risk. Env Toxicol Chem 16:91–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hindery D (2004) Social and environmental impacts of world bank/IMF-funded economic restructuringin Bolivia: an analysis of Enron and Shell’s hydrocarbons projects. Singapore J Trop Geography 25:281–303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartshorn GS (2001) Tropical forest ecosystems. In: Levin S (ed) Encyclopedia of biodiversity. Academic, New York, pp 701–710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hosonuma N, Herold M, De Sy V, De Fries RS, Brockhaus M, Verchot L, Angelsen A, Romijn E (2012) An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries. Env Res Lett 7:044009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huettmann F, Artukhin Y, Gilg O, Humphries G (2011) Predictions of 27 pelagic seabird distributions using public environmental variables, assessed with compiled colony data: a first digital IPY and GBIF open access synthesis platform. Mar Biodivers 41:141–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad (2013) Estado de conservación según MINAE. Costa Rica. http://darnis.inbio.ac.cr/ubis/FMPro?-db=ubipub.fp3&-format=lista.html&-lay=weball&-sortfield=nombre%20cientifico&-op=eq&indicadores=Peligro%20de%20extincion&publicable=si&-find

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report.contribution of working groups i, ii and iii to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri R.K, Reisinger A (eds)]. IPCC, Geneva, p. 104

    Google Scholar 

  • International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) (2007) The IUCN Red Lis of Threatened Species. http://www.iucnredlist.org/

  • Jochum K, Huettmann F (2010) Spatial information management in wildlife ecology: adding spatially explicit behavior data to the equation? Chapter 10. In: Cushman S, Huettmann F (eds) Spatial complexity, informatics and wildlife conservation. Springer, Tokyo, pp. 175–192

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Kononenko I, Kukar M (2007) Machine learning and data mining. Horwood, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kuznets S (1955) Economic growth and income inequality. Am Econ Rev 45:1–28

    Google Scholar 

  • La Sorte FA, Jetz W (2010) Avian distributions under climate change: towards improved projections. J Exp Biol 213:862–869

    Google Scholar 

  • Laurance WF (2010) Habitat destruction: death by a thousand cuts. In: N Sodhi, P Ehrlich (eds) Conservation biology for all. Chap. 4. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 73–87

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Lintott J (1998) Beyond the economics of more: the place of consumption in ecological economics. Ecol Econ 25:239–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu L (2012) Environmental poverty, a decomposed environmental Kuznets curve, and alternatives: sustainability lessons from China. Ecol Econ 73:86–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liverman DM, Vilas S (2006) Neoliberalism and the environment in Latin America. Ann Rev Env Resour 31:327–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lopez-Medellin X, Navarro-Sigueenza AG, Bocco G (2011) Human population, economic activities, and wild bird conservation in Mexico: factors influencing their relationships at two different geopolitical scales. Revista Mexicana de Biodivers 82:1267–1278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mace GM, Cramer W, Diaz S, Faith DP, Larigauderie A, Le Prestre P, Palmer M, Perrings C, Scholes RJ, Walpole M, Walther BA, Watson JA, Mooney HA (2010) Biodiversity targets after (2010) Environ Sustain. 2:1–6

    Google Scholar 

  • Maddison A (2001) Development centre studies the world economy: a millennial perspective.development centre of the organisation for economic co-operation and development centre

    Google Scholar 

  • Mankiw NG (2011) Principles of economics. Cengage learning

    Google Scholar 

  • Martinez J (2009) Socially sustainable economic de-growth. Dev Change 40:1099–1119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLaughlin DW (2011) Land, food, and biodiversity. Conserv Biol 25:1117–1120

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC, p. 137. [http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf]

    Google Scholar 

  • Mongillo JF, Zierdt-Warshaw L (2000) Encyclopedia of environmental science. Oryx Press, Phoenix

    Google Scholar 

  • Mumme SP (2007) Trade Integration, Neoliberal Reform, and Environmental Protection in Mexico. Lat Am Perspect 34(3):91–107

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, da Fonseca GAB, Kent J (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403:853–858

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Nájera A, Simonetti JA (2010) Enhancing Avifauna in commercial plantations. Conserv Biol 24:319–324

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Ocampo JA, Vallejo J (2012) Economic growth, equity and human development in Latin America. J Human Dev Capabilities:107–133

    Google Scholar 

  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2010) OECD Factbook 2010:Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics. OECD

    Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Perkins J (2004) Confessions of an economic hit man. Berrett-Koehler, California

    Google Scholar 

  • Plieninger T, Gaertner M (2011) Harnessing degraded lands for biodiversity conservation. J Nature Conserv 19:18–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pounds AJ, Fogden MPL, Campbell JH (1999) Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain. Nature 398:611

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rama M (2003) Globalization and workers in developing countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2958. Rapley J 2004. Globalization and Inequality: Neoliberalism’s Downward Spiral. Lynne Rienner

    Google Scholar 

  • Rapley J (2004). Globalization and inequality: Neoliberalism’s downward spiral. Lynne Rienner, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Resendiz-Infante CR (2012) Meta-analysis on the effects of global economic growth on birds in the nations of the three poles. Master thesis. Georg-August University, Germany

    Google Scholar 

  • Sanz JJ, Potti J, Moreno J, Merino S, Fria O (2003) Climate change and fitness components of amigratory bird breeding in the Mediterranean region. Global Change Biology. 9:461.SEMARNAT (Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales). 2010. Norma Oficial Mexicana

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmid MS (2012) Model-predicting the effect of freshwater inflow on saltwaterlayers, migration andlife history of zooplankton in the Arctic Ocean: towards scenarios and future trends. Master thesis. Georg-August University, Germany

    Google Scholar 

  • SEMARNAT (Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales) (2010) Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010 Protección Ambiental – Especies Nativas de México de Flora y Fauna Silvestres –Categorías de Riesgo y Especificaciones para su Inclusión, Exclusióno Cambio –Lista de Especies en Riesgo. D. O. F. 30–12–10

    Google Scholar 

  • SERNA (Secretaría de Recursos Naturales y Ambiente) (2008) Especies de preocupación especial en Honduras. http://www.undp.org/content/dam/honduras/docs/publicaciones/Especies_Preocupacion_Especial_Honduras.pdf

  • Sodhi NS, Ehrlich PR (2010) Conservation biology for all. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sodhi NS, Wilcove DS, Lee TM, Sekercioglu CH, Subaraj R, Bernard H, Yong DL, Lim SLH, Prawiradilaga PW, Brook BW (2010) Deforestation and Avian extinction on tropicallandbridge islands. Conserv Biol 24:1290–1298

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Spash CL (2009) Social ecological economics. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • Stattersfield AJ, Crosby MJ, Long AJ, Wege DC (1998) Endemic bird areas of the world: priorities for bird conservation. BirdLife International, Cambridge (BirdLife Conservation Series 07)

    Google Scholar 

  • Stiglitz JE (2005) The overselling of globalization. Globalization: What’s New.Michael M. Weinstein ed.) Columbia University Press, New York(

    Google Scholar 

  • Stiglitz JE (2006) Making globalization work. W.W. Norton & Company, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • The World Bank (2011) World Development Indicators. [http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-developmentindicators]

  • The World Bank (2012) Country and lending groups. URL:http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/country-and-lending-groups

  • Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, Siqueira FD, Grainger A, Hannah L (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–148

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Yitzack F (2008) Improving educational quality in honduras: building a demand-driven education market. Princeton University. http://www.princeton.edu/jpia/past-issues-1/2008/11.pdf

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Biology & Wildlife Department, EWHALE lab, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), 99775, Fairbanks, AK, USA

    Cynthia Resendiz-Infante

  2. Département de biologie & Centre d’études nordiques, Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada

    Cynthia Resendiz-Infante

  3. EWHALE lab—University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), 99775, Fairbanks, AK, USA

    Falk Huettmann

Authors
  1. Cynthia Resendiz-Infante
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Falk Huettmann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Cynthia Resendiz-Infante .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Dept. Biology & Wildlife, University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA

    Falk Huettmann

Appendix: Response and ROC Curves of Models

Appendix: Response and ROC Curves of Models

3.1.1 Critically Endangered Birds Model

The best model was found after 301 trees, and the smallest mean absolute error for the test was 0.547 (Figs. 3.5 and 3.6).

Fig. 3.5
figure 5

Response curve for the BCR model

Full size image
Fig. 3.6
figure 6

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for BCR model—testing set

Full size image

3.1.2 Extinct Birds Model

From 1500 trees in TreeNet, the best model was found after the tree #764 with an error of 0.33 (Fig. 3.7). The accuracy of the model was assessed by ROC analysis that showed an AUC for the test set of 0.92593 (Fig. 3.8).

Fig. 3.7
figure 7

Response curve for the BEX model

Full size image
Fig. 3.8
figure 8

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for BEX model—testing set

Full size image

3.1.3 Critically Endangered Parrots Model

For PCR, the best model was found after the tree #98 with an error of 0.650 (Fig. 3.9). The AUC was 0.87200 (Fig. 3.10).

Fig. 3.9
figure 9

Response curve for the PCR model

Full size image
Fig. 3.10
figure 10

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the PCR model—testing set

Full size image

3.1.4 Extinct Parrots Model

For PEX, the best model was found after the tree number #1999 and had an error of 0.517 (Fig. 3.11). The AUC for the best model was 0.91549 (Fig. 3.12).

Fig. 3.11
figure 11

Response curve for the PEX model

Full size image
Fig. 3.12
figure 12

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the PEX model—testing set

Full size image

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Resendiz-Infante, C., Huettmann, F. (2015). Bird Conservation Status and Meaningful Socioeconomic Correlates in Central America: Results from an Open Access Data-Mining Approach for Parrots Using Machine Learning Indicate Serious Economic Problems. In: Huettmann, F. (eds) Central American Biodiversity. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-2208-6_3

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation