Abstract
A brief introduction to the status of the international climate negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its latest scientific publications is given, together with the status of global greenhouse gas emissions. An overview of the historical energy-related CO2 emissions since 1750 and how they relate to economic development, measured in gross domestic product (GDP), is provided, together with the cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions by region. The future energy demand is projected should historical trends in energy efficiency and carbon intensity continue until 2050. The One Earth Climate Model (OECM), its methodology, model architecture, and scientific background are described. An overview of the aligned decarbonization pathways for the industry, service, building, and transport sectors required to achieve the 1.5 °C target is provided. The assumptions made about future market developments that are used for the scenario calculations are documented, and the assumed development of the energy intensities for product manufacture is presented. An overview of the calculated energy consumption and the resulting CO2 intensities is given, with the assumed generation mix. The role of power and gas utilities under the OECM 1.5 °C scenario is discussed, together with the projected trajectories for renewable power- and heat-generating plants and those for hydrogen and synthetic fuel. Future structures of the global primary and secondary energy industries are suggested.
The article closes with an overview of a possible allocation of the remaining carbon budget for G20 member countries, as a science-based suggestion for the UNFCCC Global Stocktake process.
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Data Availability
Availability of data material statement reading: The data described in this data note can be freely and openly accessed on “datadryad.org” under doi: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cz8w9gj82.
The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Notes
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G20 member countries—Canada, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom, Turkey, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Indonesia, India, China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia
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Acknowledgments
The OECM 1.5 °C pathways have been developed in collaborative research by the following institutions and researchers:
The research team of the University of Technology Sydney–Institute for Sustainable Futures (UTS–ISF) under the scientific leadership of Associate Professor Dr. Sven Teske (sven.teske@uts.edu.au) consists of the following members: agriculture and forestry, biofuels: Saori Miyake (saori.miyake@uts.edu.au) and Kriti Nagrath (kriti.nagrath@uts.edu.au); steel, aluminum, and cement industries: Sarah Niklas (sarah.niklas@uts.edu.au); chemical industry: Maartje Feenstra (maartje.feenstra@uts.edu.au and Simran Talwar (simran.talwar@uts.edu.au); OECM programming and modeling: Jonathan Rispler (jonathan.rispler@uts.edu.au), Jaysson Guerrero Orbe (jaysson.guerreroorbe@uts.edu.au), Maartje Feenstra (maartje.feenstra@uts.edu.au),
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute for Engineering Thermodynamics (TT), Department of Energy Systems Analysis. Scenario development: Dr. Thomas Pregger (thomas.pregger@dlr.de) and Dr. Sonja Simon (sonja.simon@dlr.de).
Central European University, Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy; Decarbonization pathways for buildings: Prof Dr. Diana Uerge-Vorsaty (Vorsatzd@ceu.edu), Dr. Souran Chatterjee (ChatterjeeS@ceu.edu), and Benedek Kiss (KissB@ceu.edu).
University of Melbourne, Australian–German Climate and Energy College. Nonenergy GHG emission pathways: Dr. Kate Dooley (kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au), A/Prof. Dr. Malte Meinshausen (malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au), and Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-resource.com).
Competing Interests
The author has no competing interests to declare.
Ethics Approval
This research involved no human participant or animal.
Declarations
The UN-convened Net Zero Asset Owner Alliance (“the Alliance”) is a Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI)- and UN Environment Programme–Finance initiative (UNEP–FI)-supported initiative, which commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) to utilize their 1.5 °C One Earth Climate Model (OECM) to derive decarbonization pathways.
Funding
This research was funded by the European Climate Foundation, 23 Rue de la Science, 1040 Brussels, Belgium (grant number 2101–61369).
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Teske, S. (2024). Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement: Setting Meaningful Goals for the Finance Industry. In: Lackner, M., Sajjadi, B., Chen, WY. (eds) Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-6431-0_185-1
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