From a Fault Line to a Catalyst: An Emerging Korean Confederation and the Contour of a Northeast Asian Security Community?

Abstract

We have much ado about various scenarios of forming a regional community in East Asia. So far, many ideas and initiatives were centered on establishing a regional community bringing together the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its three Northeast Asian partners – China, Japan, and South Korea. The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) has also been in operation as a regional security dialogue with the participation of 27 countries interested in the promotion of security in East Asia. Does the ARF have any potential of evolving into a regional security alliance, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? Why does the idea of forming a security community appear controversial in East Asia, especially in Northeast Asia? Clearly, one of the stumbling blocks is the presence of the lingering Cold War-like security landscape in Northeast Asia, represented by the two divided states of China and Korea. In particular, the Korean divide, described as a major fault line partitioning Northeast Asia into two blocs, has been the locus of attention at the turn of the twenty-first century because of North Korea’s development of nuclear and missile programs and the protracted issue of regime survival. Though rare in Northeast Asia’s security landscape, two ad hoc multinational talks – four-party talks (1997–1998) and six-party talks (2003–?) – have been convened to address a multitude of problems emanating from the Korean divide, highlighting a linkage between the Korean issues and regional security.