A Punctuated Evolution Model of Investigation and Model Construction Processes

In this chapter, I attempt to develop a higher level model of investigation processes which can account for the different stages of investigation shown in Table 14.1 and other major features observed in the solution in Chapter 14. It will describe three major subprocesses: one for generating initial descriptions at an observational level, one for constructing qualitative explanatory models at a more theoretical level, and one for mathematical modeling. As a first approximation, these are roughly matched to the early, middle, and late stages in the protocol. Direct simulations of the target and expedient analogies will be used primarily within the first description subprocess. In the second subprocess, explanatory model construction, mechanistic plausibility will become an important criterion for evaluating models. In the third, geometric and quantitative schemas will be applied as a way to add quantitative precision onto the qualitative model. However, I first need to discuss a core concept to be used in describing the middle process of explanatory model construction: duction. This concept is used so broadly in our field that it needs to be split into at least two concepts with different labels to be useful.