Abstract
It is widely believed that U.S. presidential elections represent a referendum on the policies and achievements of the incumbent party. Pioneering studies by Kramer (1971) and Fair (1978, Fair 1982, Fair 1988, Fair 1996) found empirical support for this proposition; specifically, both concluded that more rapid growth of real output produced gains for the party of the incumbent president. Following Kramer and Fair, others have investigated empirical links between election outcomes and economic performance using a variety of techniques, specifications, and data sets. These empirical relationships are often referred to as “vote functions.”
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Chappell, H. (2004). Forecasting Presidential Elections in the United States. In: Rowley, C.K., Schneider, F. (eds) The Encyclopedia of Public Choice. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47828-4_106
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