Abstract
In this chapter we summarise the contents of Chapters 1 to 11 and draw conclusions regarding the methods to be used in modelling and forecasting mortality in developed countries in the future. Integrating the experience of statistics, demography and epidemiology will contribute to the success of this undertaking. How these disciplines can be integrated is discussed following a sequence of activities inherent in any forecasting process: the modelling phase, the formulation of assumptions and forecasting, and data needs in the future. Following an introduction (Section 12.1), Section 12.2 reviews the models of mortality presented in this book. In Section 12.3, the formulation of assumptions in demography, statistical practice and epidemiology is discussed. The data needs are summarised in Section 12.4. Section 12.5 closes this book by giving some suggestions for future directions in modelling mortality.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Ahlburg, D. and J. Vaupel (1990), Alternative projections of the US population. Demography 27(4), pp. 639–652.
Alho, J.M. (1991), Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend in mortality. Mathematical Population Studies 3(1), pp. 53–67.
Barendregt, J.J.M. and L.G.A. Bonneux (1998), Degenerative disease in an ageing population. Models and conjectures. Thesis. iMGZ, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
Bell, W. and B. Monsel (1991), Using principal components in time series modeling and forecasting of age-specific mortality rates. American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section.
Bonneux, L., J.J. Barendregt, K. Meeter, G.J. Bonsel and P.J. van der Maas (1994), Estimating clinical morbidity due to ischemic heart disease and congestive heart failure: The future rise of heart failure. American Journal of Public Health 84(1), pp. 20–28.
Caselli, G., J. Vallin, J. Vaupel and A. Yashin (1987), Age-specific mortality trends in France and Italy since 1900: period and cohort effects, European Journal of Population 3(1), pp. 33–60.
Coale, A.J. and E.E. Kisker (1990), Defects in data on old-age mortality in the United States: New procedures for calculating schedules and life tables at the highest ages, Asian and Pacific Population Forum 4(1), pp. 1–31.
Cruijsen, H. and H. Eding (1996), An evaluation of recent population scenarios for the EEA and Switzerland. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking (CBS), 96/7.
Gunning-Schepers, L.J. (1988), The health benefits of prevention, a simulation approach. Thesis. Rotterdam: Erasmus University.
Guralnik, J.M., M. Yanagishita and E.L. Schneider (1988), Projecting the older population of the United States: Lessons from the past and prospects for the future. The Milbank Quarterly 66, pp. 283–308.
Heligman, L. and J.H. Pollard (1980), The age pattern of mortality. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 107, pp. 49–80.
Himes, C.L., S.H. Preston and G. Condran (1994), A relational model of mortality at older ages in low mortality countries, Population Studies 48, pp. 269–291.
Knudsen, C., R. McNown and A. Rogers (1993), Forecasting fertility: An application of time series methods to parameterized model schedules. Social Science Research 22, pp. 1–23.
Lee, R. and L. Carter (1992), Modelling and forecasting US mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), Applications and Case Studies, pp. 659–674.
Manton, K. and E. Stallard (1984), Recent trends in mortality analysis. Orlando, San Diego, New York, London: Academic Press Inc.
Manton, K. and E. Stallard (1992), Projecting the future size and health status of the US elderly population. International Journal of Forecasting 8, pp. 433–458.
Manton, K.G., B.H. Singer and R.M. Suzman (1993), The scientific and policy needs for improved health forecasting models for elderly populations. In: K.G. Manton, B.H. Singer and R.M. Suzman (eds.): Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations. New York: Springer-Verlag.
Manton, K., E. Stallard and H.D. Tolley (1991), Limits to human life expectancy: Evidence, prospects, and implications. Population and Development Review 17(4), pp. 603–637.
Manton, K., E. Stallard and J. Vaupel (1981), Methods for comparing the mortality experience of heterogeneous populations. Demography 18, pp. 389–410.
McNown, R. and A. Rogers (1992), Forecasting cause-specific mortality using time series methods. International Journal of Forecasting 8, pp. 413–431.
Mesle, F. (1994), The registration of causes of death: problems of comparability. Presented at the EAPS workshop: “Life tables in Europe: Data, methods, and models”. Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, 21–23 April, 1994.
Mesle, F. and J. Vallin (1989), Reconstitution of annual life tables for nineteenth-century France, Population 44(6), pp. 33–62.
Rogers, A. (1995), Population forecasting: Do simple models outperform complex models? Mathematical Population Studies 5(3): 187–202.
Rosenberg, H.M. (1993), Cause of death as a contemporary problem. Presented at the conference on “The history of registration of causes of death”. Bloomington, Indiana: Indiana University, November 11–14, 1993.
Ruwaard, D. and P.G.N. Kramers (eds.) (1997), Volksgezondheid Toekomst Verkenning 1997, (Public Health Status and Forecasts 1997, Overview). Utrecht: Elsevier/De Tijdstroom.
Ruwaard, D. and P.G.N. Kramers (eds.) (1998), Public Health Status and Forecasts 1997. Health, prevention and health care in the Netherlands until 2015. Maarssen: Elsevier/De Tijdstroom.
Shepard, D.S. and R.J. Zeckhauser (1975), The assessment of programs to prolong life, recognizing their interaction with risk factors. Discussion Paper 32-D, Cambridge, Mass: Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Tabeau, E. (1997), Theorieën over de menselijke levensduur: een literatuurverkenning. (Theoretical concepts on longevity issues: A review). Chapter in: A. van den Berg Jeths (ed.): Volksgezondheid Toekomst Verkenning 1997. Deel VII: Gezondheid en zorg in de toekomst. RIVM. Elsevier/De Tijdstroom.
Tabeau, E. and A. Tabeau (1995), The Heligman-Pollard model in the dynamic parameterisation and target projections of Dutch mortality. Presented at the European Population Conference 1995. Italy: Milan.
Thompson, P., W. Bell, J.F. Long, and R.B. Miller (1989), Multivariate time series projections of parameterized age-specific fertility rates. Journal of the American Statistical Association 84(407), pp. 689–699.
Vallin, J. and F. Mesle (1990), The causes of death in France, 1925–1978: Reclassification according to the Eighth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases. Chapter in: J. Vallin, D. Souza (eds.): Measurement and analysis of mortality: new approaches. International Studies in Demography, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Van den Bosch, J., F. van Poppel and J. Mackenbach (1994), Reclassifying causes of death to study the epidemiological transition in the Netherlands, 1875–1992. Presented at the 1994 Conference of the Social Science History Association. October 13–16, Atlanta.
Vaupel, J.W. and A. Yashin (1985), Heterogeneity’s ruses: Some surprising effects of selection on population dynamics. American Statistician 39, pp. 176–185.
Vaupel, J.W., K. Manton, and E. Stallard (1979), The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality. Demography 16, pp. 439–454.
Wilmoth, J., J. Vallin and G. Caselli (1989), When does a cohort’s mortality differ from what we expect? Population 44(2), pp. 335–376.
Yashin, A.I. and K.G. Manton (1997), Effects of unobserved and partially observed covariate processes on system failure: A review of models and estimation strategies. Statistical Science 12(1), pp. 20–34.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Tabeau, E., Van Den Berg Jeths, A., Heathcote, C. (2001). Towards an Integration of the Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspectives in Forecasting Mortality. In: Tabeau, E., van den Berg Jeths, A., Heathcote, C. (eds) Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. European Studies of Population, vol 9. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_12
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-0-7923-6833-5
Online ISBN: 978-0-306-47562-7
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive