Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Small-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study from the town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

An empirical-based natural disaster risk assessment was carried out in a sub-national region of China, using the town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, as the small-scale study area. Risk factors identified associated with the Typhoon Morakot rainstorm–flood event included hazard, vulnerability, and disaster loss, with the corresponding indicators being submergence depth (m), loss rate (%), and flood loss values (Yuan). As a frequent rainstorm–flood area, the maximum flood depth in Shuitou is 3.57 m, and the average loss rates for housing property and business assets reach 20 and 30 %, respectively. The average maximum loss ranges around 40,000–100,000 Yuan. The comprehensive disaster risk level depends on the respective strengths of the principal component factors. Extremely high-submersion-risk and very high-submersion-risk areas in Shuitou are found in the northwest, specifically along the GongYuan and Yuanlin roads, covering an area of 0.33 km2, about 17.65 % of study areas. This small-scale natural disaster risk assessment encapsulates the principle of “regional characteristics, case accumulation, long-term record.” The evaluation results can be used as reference for regional temporary migration program design and implementation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The results of the Typhoon Morakot rainstorm-flood loss survey questionnaire “The flood loss table of housing property and business assets” can be found in Appendix 1.

  2. Statistical data and basic information regarding the 47 survey points in Shuitou can be found in Appendix 2.

References

  • Alexander LV, Power S (2009) Severe storms inferred from 150 years of subdaily pressure observations along Victoria’s “Shipwreck Coast”. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 58(2):129–133

    Google Scholar 

  • Allan JC, Komar PD (2006) Climate controls on US West Coast erosion processes. J Coastal Res 22(3):511–529

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benestad RE, Haugen JE (2007) On complex extremes: flood hazards and combined high spring-time precipitation and temperature in Norway. Clim Change 85(3–4):381–406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boo KO, Kwon WT, Baek HJ (2006) Change of extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Korea using regional projection of future climate change. Geophys Res Lett 33:L01701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caesar J, Alexander L, Vose R (2006) Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures: creation and analysis of a new gridded data set. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D05101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camarasa-Belmonte AM, Soriano-García J (2012) Flood risk assessment and mapping in peri-urban Mediterranean environments using hydrogeomorphology. Application to ephemeral streams in the Valencia region (eastern Spain). Landsc Urban Plann 104:189–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen JH, Christensen OB (2003) Climate modeling: severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature 421:805–806

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Church JA, White NJ (2011) Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surv Geophys 32:585–602

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diermanse FLM, Geerse CPM (2012) Correlation models in flood risk analysis. Reliab Eng Syst Saf. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.004

    Google Scholar 

  • Donat MG et al (2013) Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: the HadEX2 dataset. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50150

  • Frame DJ, Stone DA (2013) Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change. Nat Clim Chang 3:357–359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fujibe F, Yamazaki N, Kobayashi K (2006) Long-term changes of heavy precipitation and dry weather in Japan (1901-2004). J Meteorol Soc Jpn 84(6):1033–1046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grabemann I, Weisse R (2008) Climate change impact on extreme wave conditions in the North Sea: an ensemble study. Ocean Dyn 58(3–4):199–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu BB, Zhou J, Xu SY et al (2013) Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis. Nat Hazards 66(2):873

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ibarra EM (2012) A geographical approach to post-flood analysis: the extreme flood event of 12 October 2007 in Calpe (Spain). Appl Geogr 32:490–500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (1990) Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 212

  • IPCC (1996) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  • IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 996

  • IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, p 582

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Working group I contribution to the IPCC 5th assessment report—changes to the underlying scientific/technical assessment (IPCC-XXVI/Doc.4). http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.Up2zQLKBS4R

  • Jenks GF (1967) The data model concept in statistical mapping. Int Yearb Cartogr 7:186–190

    Google Scholar 

  • Jevrejeva S, Moore JC, Grinsted A et al (2008) Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago? Geophys Res Lett 35:L08715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ji ZH, Li N, Xie W et al (2013) Comprehensive assessment of flood risk using the classification and regression tree method. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 27(8):1815–1828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang T, Kundzewicz ZW, Su B (2008) Changes in monthly precipitation and flood hazard in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Int J Climatol 28(11):1471–1481

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kenyon W (2007) Evaluating flood risk management options in Scotland: a participant-led multi-criteria approach. Ecol Econ 64:70–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kenyon J, Hegerl GC (2010) Influence of modes of climate variability on global precipitation extremes. J Clim 23:6248–6262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy CKB, Lall U, Kwon HH (2009) Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J Clim 22(18):4737–4746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lanza SG (2003) Flood hazard threat on cultural heritage in the town of Genoa (Italy). J Cult Herit 4:159–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Likert R (1932) A technique for the measurement of attitudes. Arch Psychol 140:1–55

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu YL, Chen ZL, Wang J et al (2011a) Fifty-year rainfall change and its effect on droughts and floods in Wenzhou China. Nat Hazards 56(1):131–143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu YL, Chen ZL, Wang J et al (2011b) Study on property (capital) vulnerability of houses in regular rainstorm water-logging areas-taking Wenzhou city as example. J Catastroghol 26(2):66–71 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu YL, Chen ZL, Wang J et al (2012) Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China. Nat Hazards 60(3):1287–1298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ Urban 19(1):17–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD et al (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignorand M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 747–845

  • Miceli R, Sotgiu I, Settanni M (2008) Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: a study in an alpine valley in Italy. J Environ Psychol 28:164–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min SK, Zhang X, Zwiers FW et al (2011) Human contribution to more intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470(7334):378–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Orlowsky B, Seneviratne SI (2011) Global changes in extremes events: regional and seasonal dimension. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0122-9

    Google Scholar 

  • Parker DJ, Tunstall SM, McCarthy S (2007) New insights into the benefits of flood warnings: results from a household survey in England and Wales. Environ Hazards 7:193–210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paul BK (1997) Flood research in Bangladesh in retrospect and prospect: a review. Geoforum l(2):121–131

  • Plate EJ (2002) Flood risk and flood management. J Hydrol 267:2–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI, Nicholls N, Easterling D et al (2012) Chapter 3: changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Field CB et al (eds) SREX: special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 109–230

  • Shidawara M (1999) Flood hazard map distribution. Urban Water 1:125–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Su XH, Zhang XD, Yang SQ et al (2012) County-level flood risk level assessment in China using geographic information system. Sensor Lett 10(1–2):379–386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Gao W, Xu SY et al (2012) Evaluation of the combined risk of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges on the coastal areas of Shanghai, China. Clim Change 115(3/4):537–558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Chen ZL, Xu SY et al (2013a) Medium-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China. Nat Hazards 66:1205–1220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Ye MW, Li X et al (2013b) Study on the methods of risk assessment and emergency rhespouse of urban natural hazards. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

  • Warrick R, Oerlemans J (1990) Sea level rise. Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Willis J, Chambers D, Kuo C et al (2010) Global sea level rise recent progress and challenges for the decade to come. Oceanography 23:26–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xia JQ, Falconer RA, Lin B et al (2011) Numerical assessment of flood hazard risk to people and vehicles in flash floods. Environ Model Softw 26:987–998

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin J, Ying ZE, Hu XM et al (2011) Multiple scenario analyses forecasting the confounding impacts of sea level rise and tides from storm induced coastal flooding in the city of Shanghai, China. Environ Earth Sci 63(2):407–414

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin J, Ying ZE, Xu SY et al (2013) Composite risk assessment of typhoon-induced disaster for China’s coastal area. Nat Hazards 69(3):1423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ying ZE, Yin J, Xu SY et al (2011) Community-based scenarios modeling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm water-logging. J Geog Sci 21(2):274–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai PM, Zhang X, Wan H et al (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18(7):1096–1108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC et al (2007) Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 448:U461–U464

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zou X, Alexander LV, Parker D et al (2006) Variations in severe storms over China. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17701

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (No. 51174142, No. 51422404, and No. 41101507), National Science Support Panning of China (No. 2009BAB48B02), Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University of Chinese Ministry of Education (No. NCET-11-1036), the Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation (No. 132023), Program for the Top Young Academic Leaders of Higher Learning Institutions of Shanxi (TYAL), Program for the Philosophy and Social Sciences Research of Higher Learning Institutions of Shanxi (PSSR) (No. 2014314), Shanxi Meteorological Bureau Fund Project (No. SXKYBFW20147822), Shanxi Soft Science Fund Project (No. 2013041041-05), the Qualified Personnel Foundation of TaiYuan University of Technology (No. TYUT-RC201110A), Youth Foundation of Taiyuan University of Technology (No. 2013w023 and 2013w024). We gratefully acknowledge the thoughtful comments of the editor and reviewers.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guorui Feng.

Appendices

Appendix 1

See Table 7.

Table 7 Typhoon Morakot rainstorm–flood loss questionnaire for the town of Shuitou

Appendix 2

See Table 8.

Table 8 Basic information for the 47 survey points in Shuitou

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Liu, Y., Feng, G., Xue, Y. et al. Small-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study from the town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China. Nat Hazards 75, 2167–2183 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1420-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1420-0

Keywords

Navigation