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The Origins and Consequences of democratic citizens' Policy Agendas: A Study of Popular Concern about Global Warming

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Abstract

This article proposes and tests a model of the causes and consequences of Americans’ judgments of the national seriousness of global warming. The model proposes that seriousness judgments about global warming are a function of beliefs about the existence of global warming, attitudes toward it, the certainty with which these beliefs and attitudes are held, and beliefs about human responsibility for causing global warming and people’s ability to remedy it. The model also proposes that beliefs about whether global warming is a problem are a function of relevant personal experiences (with the weather) and messages from informants (in this case, scientists), that attitudes toward global warming are a function of particular perceived consequences of global warming, and that certainty about these attitudes and beliefs is a function of knowledge and prior thought. Data from two representative sample surveys offer support for all of these propositions, document effects of national seriousness judgments on support for ameliorative efforts generally and specific ameliorative policies, and thereby point to psychological mechanisms that may be responsible for institutional and elite impact on the public’s assessments of national problem importance and on public policy preferences.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departments of Communication, Political Science, and Psychology, Stanford University, 432 McClatchy Hall, 450 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA

    Jon A. Krosnick

  2. Departments of Public Administration and Psychology, Survey Research Laboratory, MC336, University of Illinois at Chicago, 412 S Peoria St., Sixth Floor, Chicago, IL, 60607, USA

    Allyson L. Holbrook

  3. NFO Ad: Impact, 44 Montgomery St., Suite 2090, San Francisco, CA, 94104, USA

    Laura Lowe

  4. Department of Psychology, University of Chicago, 5848 S. University Avenue, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA

    Penny S. Visser

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  1. Jon A. Krosnick
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Correspondence to Jon A. Krosnick.

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Krosnick, J.A., Holbrook, A.L., Lowe, L. et al. The Origins and Consequences of democratic citizens' Policy Agendas: A Study of Popular Concern about Global Warming. Climatic Change 77, 7–43 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9068-8

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