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The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines

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Abstract

An observational study covering the period 1950–2002 examines a seasonal reversal in the ENSO rainfall signal in the north-central Philippines. In boreal Summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, above (below) average rainfall typically occurs in this area. Rainfall anomalies of opposite sign develop across the country in the subsequent fall. This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) during both El Niño and La Niña and places these features in the context of the large-scale evolution of ENSO events, including an analysis of changes in tropical cyclone activity affecting the Philippines. The results show that during boreal summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, a relatively narrow, zonally elongated band of enhanced (reduced) low-level westerlies develops across the WNP which serves to increase (decrease) the summer monsoon flow and moisture flux over the north-central Philippines and is associated with an increase (decrease) in the strength of the WNP monsoon trough via the anomalous relative vorticity. Tropical cyclone activity is shown to be enhanced (reduced) in the study region during boreal summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, which is related to the increase (decrease) of mid-level atmospheric moisture, as diagnosed using a genesis potential index. The subsequent evolution shows development of an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the WNP in El Niño (La Niña) and the well-known tendency for below (above) average rainfall in the fall. Prolonged ENSO events also exhibit seasonal rainfall sign reversals in the Philippines with a similar evolution in atmospheric circulation.

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Notes

  1. The WNPMI is defined as the difference in the averages of the 850 hPa zonal wind, (5°N–15°N, 90°E–130°E) minus (25°N–30°N, 110°E–140°E).

  2. The onset date of an ENSO event is defined as the first 3 month season when the Niño3.4 SST index first exceeds the threshold of ±0.5°C.

  3. Probabilities are based on a Fisher Exact Test as described in Lyon et al. (2006).

  4. Owing to the small sample of cases, the weak La Niña of 1995–1996, not identified as an event by the general methodology of the study, was included in the CMAP composite shown in Fig. 13b.

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Acknowledgments

This study is an outgrowth of a collaborative research effort between the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The authors wish to thank Dr. Flaviana Hilario, head of the Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch, Edna L. Juanillo, head of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Center (CLIMPC), and Anthony Lucero of PAGASA for their assistance during the course of this work. This work is funded in part by a grant from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NA050AR4311004, and by the US Agency for International Development’s Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, DFD-A-00-03-00005-00. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of NOAA or any of its sub-agencies.

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Author notes

  1. Suzana J. Camargo

    Present address: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA

    Bradfield Lyon & Suzana J. Camargo

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Correspondence to Bradfield Lyon.

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Lyon, B., Camargo, S.J. The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Clim Dyn 32, 125–141 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0380-z

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