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Effects of Resolution, Cumulus Parameterization Scheme, and Probability Forecasting on Precipitation Forecasts in a High-Resolution Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System

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Abstract

This study investigates the effects of horizontal resolution, cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS), and probability forecasting on precipitation forecasts over the Korean Peninsula from 00 UTC 15 August to 12 UTC 14 September 2013, using the limited-area ensemble prediction system (LEPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. To investigate the effect of resolution, the control members of the LEPS with 1.5- and 3-km resolution were compared. Two 3-km experiments with and without the CPS were conducted for the control member, because a 3-km resolution lies within the gray zone. For probability forecasting, 12 ensemble members with 3-km resolution were run using the LEPS. The forecast performance was evaluated for both the whole study period and precipitation cases categorized by synoptic forcing. The performance of precipitation forecasts using the 1.5-km resolution was better than that using the 3-km resolution for both the total period and individual cases. The result of the 3-km resolution experiment with the CPS did not differ significantly from that without it. The 3-km ensemble mean and probability matching (PM) performed better than the 3-km control member, regardless of the use of the CPS. The PM complemented the defect of the ensemble mean, which better predicts precipitation regions but underestimates precipitation amount by averaging ensembles, compared to the control member. Further, both the 3-km ensemble mean and PM outperformed the 1.5-km control member, which implies that the lower performance of the 3-km control member compared to the 1.5-km control member was complemented by probability forecasting.

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Acknowledgments

The authors appreciate two reviewers for their valuable comments. This study was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (Ministry of Science and ICT) (No. 2017R1E1A1A03070968) and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA 2015-5200. The authors appreciate the Numerical Modeling Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration for providing computer facility support and resources for this study.

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  1. Nuri On

    Present address: Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Predictability and Data Assimilation Laboratory, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, 03722, Republic of Korea

    Nuri On, Hyun Mee Kim & SeHyun Kim

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  1. Nuri On
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  2. Hyun Mee Kim
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Correspondence to Hyun Mee Kim.

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Responsible Editor: Kyong-Hwan Seo.

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On, N., Kim, H.M. & Kim, S. Effects of Resolution, Cumulus Parameterization Scheme, and Probability Forecasting on Precipitation Forecasts in a High-Resolution Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 54, 623–637 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-018-0081-4

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