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Seismic hazard assessment of northern Pakistan

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Abstract

This article presents probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of northern Pakistan region carried out to produce macro-seismic hazard maps for the region that define new regional ground motion design parameters for 95-, 475-, 975- and 2475-year return period earthquakes as regional contour maps and horizontal uniform hazard at important cities. The Cornell–McGuire approach (Cornell in Bull Seismol Soc Am 58(05):1583–1606, 1968; McGuire in FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis. US Geological Survey, Open file Report, 76-6768, 1976) is used to carry out the analyses at 0.1° rectangular grid. The seismotectonic model of the region used in analysis consists of shallow and deep area zones differentiated based on the focal depths of the earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue compiled and used in the analysis is a composite catalogue composed of 19,373 events. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used are calibrated using goodness-of-fitness measures and visual inspection with local strong motion data. Epistemic uncertainty in the GMPEs is taken into account through the logic tree approach. Comparison of ground motions due to deep earthquakes is made for the first time for the region. The comparison between ground motion due to shallow and deep earthquakes indicates that the seismic hazard would be underestimated if the deep earthquakes are excluded. Ground motion values obtained in this study considering all the earthquakes suggest ground motions are dominant towards the north east of the region. The proposed study indicates that the ground motion hazard values suggested by the current Building Code of Pakistan underestimate the seismic hazard. Final results of this study are in close agreement with the recent studies on the region.

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Acknowledgements

This work has been carried out as a part Ph.D. dissertation at University of Chieti Pescara, Italy. The support of Eurasian Network of Universities for International cooperation for earthquakes (EU-NICE) for the work is greatly acknowledged. The first author is very thankful and grateful to Professor Muhammad Asif Khan, Ex-Director, National Centre of Excellence in Geology, University of Peshawar who has kindly provided his valuable time and recommendations to the first author in defining the seismotectonic model for the region.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Centre of Excellence Geology, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan

    Muhammad Waseem

  2. Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy

    Carlo Giovanni Lai

  3. Department of Engineering and Geology, University ‘G. D’Annunzio’ of Chieti-Pescara, Pescara, Italy

    Muhammad Waseem & Enrico Spacone

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  1. Muhammad Waseem
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Correspondence to Muhammad Waseem.

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Waseem, M., Lai, C.G. & Spacone, E. Seismic hazard assessment of northern Pakistan. Nat Hazards 90, 563–600 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3058-1

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