Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Twin climate cities—an exploratory study of their potential use for awareness-raising and urban adaptation

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Twin climate cities are pairs of cities for which it is appropriate to assume that the future climate of a city “A” will be significantly similar to the current climate of another city “B”. In this paper, we explore the potential use of the climate twins approach for the development of adaptation strategies to climate change in urban areas. We propose an innovative and robust climate-matching method that is suitable to link cities’ current and future climates. Of the 100 cities investigated, 70 have at least one twin climate region, and 39 have a twin climate city. The case-study revealed a highly significant similarity for temperature variables and heat-related indices, but a less significant similarity for precipitation variables. The Climate Twins approach appears to be a potentially effective mechanism for raising awareness about the pace of climate change and for easily identifying (1) future impacts and vulnerabilities associated with climate change as well as (2) policies, infrastructure, and best practices that should be implemented in a city in order to cope efficiently with future extreme temperature events.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Akerlof K, DeBono R, Berry P, Leiserowitz A, Roser-Renouf C, Clarke KL, Rogaeva A, Nisbet MC, Weathers MR, Maibach EW (2010) Public perceptions of climate change as a human health risk: surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta. Int J Environ Res Public Health 7(6):2559–2606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aylett A (2015) Institutionalizing the urban governance of climate change adaptation: results of an international survey. Urban Clim 14:4–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M (2012) Changements climatiques et impacts: De l’échelle globale à l’échelle locale. 2° édition revue et mise à jour. Presses Polytechniques et Universitaires Romandes, Lausanne

    Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M (2014) European isotherms move northwards by up to 15 km year−1: using climate analogues for awareness-raising. Int J Climatol 34(6):1838–1844

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carter JG (2011) Climate change adaptation in European cities. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 3:193–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CGIAR – CCAFS (2014) Analogues: blogs and stories. In: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blogs/analogues. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Charron I (2014) A guidebook on climate scenarios: using climate information to guide adaptation research and decisions. Ouranos. http://www.ouranos.ca/media/publication/352_GuideCharron_ENG.pdf. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Christensen JH, Christensen OB, Lopez P, Van Meijgaard E and Botzet M (1996) The HIRHAM4 Regional Atmospheric Climate Model. Scientific Report n° 96–4, Danish Meteorological Institute. http://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/Rapporter/SR/sr96-4.pdf. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Climate Communication (2014) Climate communication: science and outreach. http://www.climatecommunication.org/. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • CSIRO (2015) Climate Analogues Explorer. In: Climate change in Australia. http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/climate-analogues/analogues-explorer/. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Dilling L, Berggren J (2015) What do stakeholders need to manage for climate change and variability? A document-based analysis from three mountain states in the Western USA. Reg Environ Chang 15(4):657–667

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • EEA (2012) Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012, an indicator-based report. In: European Environment Agency Publications. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Elliott S, Decker E, Smith FA, Blake DR, Simpson IJ, Rowland FS (2000) Cities in the earth system. Environ Sci Pol 3(4):157–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fünfgeld H (2015) Facilitating local climate change adaptation through transnational municipal networks. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 12:67–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grenier P, Parent AC, Huard D, Anctil F, Chaumont D (2013) An assessment of six dissimilarity metrics for climate analogs. J Clim Appl Meteorol 52:733–752

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte S, Hourcade JC, Ambrosi P (2007) Using climate analogues for assessing climate change economics impacts in urban areas. Climate Change 82:47–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harlan S, Ruddell D (2011) Climate change and health in cities: impacts of heat and air pollution and potential co benefits from mitigation and adaptation. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 3:126–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heidrich O, Reckien D, Olazabal M, Foley A, Salvia M, de Gregorio Hurtado S, Orru H, Flacke J, Geneletti D, Pietrapertosa F, Hamann JJP, Tiwary A, Feliu E, Dawson RJ (2016) National climate policies across Europe and their impacts on cities strategies. J Environ Manag 168:36–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holdridge LR (1947) Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data. Science 105:367–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoornweg D, Sugar L, Freire M, Anderson C, Bhada P, Trejos CL, Dave R, Lee M (2011) Cities and climate change: responding to an urgent agenda, v2. The World Bank Publisher, Washington

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Appendix I: glossary. In: Climate Change 2001: the physical science basis, contribution of working group I to the 3rd assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New-York

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, contribution of working group II to the 5th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New-York

    Google Scholar 

  • Ipsos (2014) Global trends 2014 on Environment. Ipsos MORI Surveys. http://www.ipsosglobaltrends.com/environment.html. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Ishizaki N, Shiogama H, Takahashi K, Emori S, Dairaku K, Kusaka H (2012) An attempt to estimate probabilistic regional climate analogue in a warmer Japan. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 90B:65–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jylhä K, Tuomenvirta H, Ruosteenoja K, Niemi-Hugaerts H, Keisu K, Karhu JA (2010) Observed and projected future shifts of climatic zones in Europe and their use to visualize climate change information. Weath Clim and Soc 2:148–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaufmann A, Peters-Anders J, Yurtsever S, Petronzio L (2013) Automated semantic validation of crowd sourced local information—the case of the web application ‘climate twins’. In: Hrebicek J, Schimak G, Kubasek M, Rizzolio AE (eds) Environmental software systems. Fostering information sharing – 10th IFIP WG 5.11 international symposium, Austria, October 2013, vol 413, IFIP advances in information and communication technology. Springer, Berlin, 23

    Google Scholar 

  • Kellett J, Ness D, Hamilton C, Pullen S and Leditschke A (2011) Learning from regional climate analogues. NCCARF National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. https://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/learning-regional-analogues-final-report. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Kellett J, Hamilton C, Ness D, Pullen S (2015) Testing the limits of regional climate analogue studies: an Australian example. Land Use Policy 44:54–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kern K, Bulkeley H (2009) Cities, Europeanization and multi-level governance: governing climate change through transnational municipal networks. J Common Mark Stud 47(2):309–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kopf S, Ha-Duong M, Hallegatte S (2008) Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 8(4):905–918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koven C and Godwin M (2013) Climate Analog Tracker: where will the world’s climates go with global warming? Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley University, California. http://esd.lbl.gov/about/staff/charleskoven/climate_vectors.html. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Landsberg HE (1981) The urban climate. Academic Press Inc, New-York

    Google Scholar 

  • Leibing C, Signer J, Van Zonneveld M, Jarvis A, Dvorak W (2013) Selection of provenances to adapt tropical pine forestry to climate change on the basis of climate analogs. Forests 4:155–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loibl W, Peters-Anders J, Ungar J and Züger J (2010) Climate Twins Viewer v3.0 beta. Austrian Institute of Technology. http://sf5.arcs.ac.at/jsp-examples/ct_3/flamingo-mc_3/index_new.html#. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Lu X (2008) Applying climate information for adaptation decision-making: a guidance and resource document. UNDP/UNEP/GEP National Communications Support Programme. https://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/sbsta_agenda_item_adaptation/application/pdf/ncsp_guidance_adaptationdecisionmaking.pdf. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Marshall NA, Park S, Howden SM, Dowd AB, Jakku ES (2013) Climate change awareness is associated with enhanced adaptive capacity. Agric Syst 117:30–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Neill S, Nicholson-Cole S (2009) Fear won’t do it: promoting positive engagement with climate change through visual and iconic representations. Sci Commun 30(3):355–379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peacock L, Worner S (2006) Using analogous climates and global insect distribution data to identify potential sources of new invasive insect pests in New Zealand. New Zeal J Zool 33(2):141–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson TC, Folland C, Gruza G, Hogg W, Mokssit A and Plummer N (2001) Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs 1998–2001, World Meteorological Organisation Rep. WCDMP-47, WMO-TD 1071

  • PRUDENCE (2004) predictions of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European climate change risks and effects. http://prudence.dmi.dk/. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Ramirez-Villegas J, Lau C, Köhler AK, Signer J, Jarvis A, Arnell N, Osborn T and Hooker J (2011) Climate analogues: finding tomorrow’s agriculture today. Working Paper n°12 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). https://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/assets/docs/ccafs-wp-12-climate-analogues-web.pdf. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Ramirez-Villegas J, Lau C, Köhler AK, Signer J, Jarvis A, Arnell N, Osborn T and Hooker J (2012) Analogues: a glimpse of tomorrow’s climate, today. In: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. http://code.google.com/p/ccafs-analogues/. Cited 11 Aug 2015

  • Reckien D, Flacke J, Dawson RJ, Heidrich O, Olazabal M, Foley A, Hamann JJP, Orru H, Salvia M, De Gregorio HS, Geneletti D, Pietrapertosa F (2014) Climate change response in Europe: what’s the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries. Climate Change 122(1–2):331–340. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0989-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reckien D, Flacke J, Olazabal M, Heidrich O (2015) The influence of drivers and barriers on urban adaptation and mitigation plans—an empirical analysis of European cities. PLoS ONE 10(8), e0135597. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0135597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Solecki W, Hammer SA, Mehrotra S (2010) Cities lead the way in climate-change action. Nature 467:909–911

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saxon E, Baker B, Hargrove W, Hoffman F, Zganjar C (2005) Mapping environments at risk under different global climate change scenarios. Ecol Lett 8:53–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semenza JC, Ploubidis GB, George LA (2011) Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation. Environ Heal 10(46):1–12. doi:10.1186/1476-069X-10-46

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheppard SRJ (2012) Visualizing climate change: a guide to visual communication of climate change and developing local solutions. Routledge, New-York

    Google Scholar 

  • UNEP (2006) Raising awareness of climate change: a handbook for government focal points. United Nations Environment Programme’s Division of Environmental Law and Conventions, Nairobi, Kenya

    Google Scholar 

  • Ungar J, Peters-Anders J and Loibl W (2011) Climate Twins—an attempt to quantify climatological similarities. In: Hrebicek J, Schimak G and Denzer R (eds) Environmental Software Systems, Frameworks of Environment, IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology vol 359, p428

  • United Nations-Habitat (2011) Global report on human settlements: cities and climate change. United Nations Human Settlements Program. Earthscan Publisher, London and New-York

    Google Scholar 

  • Van der Linden SL, Leiserowitz AA, Feinberg GD, Maibach EW (2014) How to communicate the scientific consensus on climate change: plain facts, pie charts or metaphors? Climate Change 126:255–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Veloz S, Williams JW, Lorenz D, Notaro M, Vavrus S, Vimont DJ (2012a) Identifying climatic analogs for Wisconsin under 21st century climate change scenarios. Climate Change 112:1037–1058

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Veloz S, Williams JW, Blois JL, He F, Otto-Bliesner B, Liu Z (2012b) No-analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late quaternary: implications for 21st-century predictions by species distribution models. Glob Chang Biol 18:1698–1713

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webb LB, Watterson I, Bhend J, Whetton PH, Barlow EW (2013) Global climate analogues for winegrowing regions in future periods: projections of temperature and precipitation. Aust J Grape Wine Res 19:331–341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams JW, Jackson ST (2007) Novel climates, no-analog communities and ecological surprises. Front Ecol Environ 5:475–482

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped improving the quality of this paper and Martin Lacayo for valuable language editing and proofreading.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

    Guillaume Rohat & Stéphane Goyette

  2. Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Johannes Flacke

Authors
  1. Guillaume Rohat
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Stéphane Goyette
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Johannes Flacke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guillaume Rohat.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1

(DOCX 11 kb)

Supplementary material 2

(DOCX 18 kb)

Supplementary material 3

(DOCX 10 kb)

Supplementary material 4

(DOCX 1682 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rohat, G., Goyette, S. & Flacke, J. Twin climate cities—an exploratory study of their potential use for awareness-raising and urban adaptation. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 22, 929–945 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9708-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9708-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation