Abstract
Productivity improvements generally are driven by technology innovation and its spillovers. This study explores the role of R&D investment and intermediate input trade in productivity growth using country-industry-level data for 25 advanced and emerging economies. This paper confirms that R&D investment and intermediate input import/export (both intra- and inter-industry) with technologically advanced economies play important roles in productivity growth in non-frontier countries. We further find that the productivity gains of technology spillovers via input trade channels are likely larger for countries/industries where technology converges to the frontier. These findings imply that the recent slowdown in R&D investment and intermediate input trade in some advanced economies may contribute to declining productivity growth. The potential productivity improvements from R&D investment and free trade as well as the importance of domestic capacity in facilitating technology spillovers should be recognized.
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For instance, Korea and China face their own challenges with the rebalancing of the economy from manufacturing to services.
See, for example, Aghion and Jaravel (2015) for the literature review on the issues of recent research on the role of technology (knowledge) spillovers.
Bloom et al. (2013), using panel data on U.S. firms, find that the social returns from R&D are at least twice as high as the private returns by separately identifying two countervailing spillovers from R&D: positive effects from technology spillovers and negative business stealing effects from product market rivals.
In this regard, the recent slowdown in trade openness likely leads to the weakening of trade-related productivity growth (Constantinescu et al. 2016).
Including fixed effects for country, industry, and year, as in many studies, can partially (not fully) address bias from omitted variables by capturing the role of the other factor in productivity growth—which likely to be country, industry, and year-specific.
The earlier literature mostly analyzes R&D spillovers through import in intermediate inputs. There is an exception such as Poetzsch (2017) who considers R&D spillovers through both intermediate input usage and supply.
22 advanced and 3 emerging economies, based on the IMF country classification, are included in our sample countries. We also analyze broader set of industries including 4 non-manufacturing indusries [i.e., Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing (AtB); Mining and quarrying (C); Electricity, gas and water supply (E); and Construction (F)] in our econometric analysis for a robustness check. However, industries in the service sector are not included as these industries usually do not involve much R&D activities and intermediate input trade which are our main focus of this paper. Moreover, productivity in services is extremely difficult to compare across countries due to measurement issues and many other country-specific considerations.
PPP exchange rates for traded sectors from Inklaar and Diewert (2016) are used for the industries in Manufacturing; Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing (AtB); and Mining and quarrying (C) while those for non-traded sectors are used for the industries in Electricity, gas and water supply (E); and Construction (F) (see Table 7 for detailed industry classifications).
There is also substantial divergence in productivity levels across industries within manufacturing.
We chose the U.S. as the frontier country in the econometric analysis, although the U.S. may not be the technology frontier in all industries, as the country has been the most important player in the global trade (especially in intermediate input trade) which is the main focus of this paper.
Imported inputs are scaled by the total inputs used in that sector including both imported from foreign markets and supplied by domestic firms, while exported inputs are divided by the total inputs produced in that sector including both exported to foreign markets and provided to domestic firms.
Introducing different industry and year-specific fixed effects for each country is expected to capture other potentially important domestic factors to determine productivity growth (e.g., human capital, institutions).
By this normalization, within the variation encountered in the sample, the relationship between labor productivity growth and these variables is broadly proportional.
The terminology of ‘advantages of backwardness’ was first used in Gerschenkron (1962) and adopted in many growth literature afterwards to describe the convergence of economic growth.
As noted by Abramovitz (1986); Benhabib and Spiegel (1994), domestic factors including both technology gap (relative backwardness) and absorptive capacity (e.g., human capital, institutions) can be important factors for technology spillovers but proxies for human capital such as education and skill levels are not included in our specification because the reliable industry-level data are not available.
R&D decisions can be also endogenous as more R&D can be invested in more productive industries. However, we focus on the issue of endogeneity between input trade variables and productivity as it is not easy to address the endogeneity in R&D decisions econometrically at the industry level. Note that Bloom et al. (2013) address this issue using the firm-level data.
We use a bilateral trade with the U.S. instead of overall trade with all other countries to reduce causality concerns and to identify the potential technology spillover channels from the technology frontier to non-frontier countries.
This method is widely adopted in the recent literature to address the endogeneity issues between trade and economic growth.
Estimation results are not presented in the paper but they can be provided upon request.
However, it is notable that the measurement of intra- and inter-industry input trade openness can critically depend on industry classification.
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I am grateful to JaeBin Ahn, Thomas Helbling, Dirk Muir, Ryota Nakatani, and seminar participants at the International Monetary Fund, and Midwest Economics Association Annual Conference for their comments and suggestions. I am also particularly thankful to two anonymous referees for their thoughtful comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the International Monetary Fund or Bank of Korea.
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Lee, D. The role of R&D and input trade in productivity growth: innovation and technology spillovers. J Technol Transf 45, 908–928 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-019-09717-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-019-09717-0