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Projected climate reshuffling based on multivariate climate-availability, climate-analog, and climate-velocity analyses: implications for community disaggregation

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Abstract

There is a need for biologically relevant metrics of climate risk for regional- to global-scale climate vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Here, we develop, combine, and compare univariate and multivariate forms of several metrics (climate-availability, climate-analog, and two forms of climate-velocity) used to assess the risks arising from future climate change, using downscaled climate projections for Wisconsin (USA) as a case study. Climate-availability and climate-analog analyses show little or no overlap between late-20th-century and projected late-21st-century climates for Wisconsin, and large differences among variables in the distance, bearing, and velocity of projected climate change. There is a strong negative correlation between geographic and climatic distances to closest analogs, creating a tradeoff when climate velocity is assessed using multivariate analog-based approaches: some locations have no good analogs anywhere in future climate space and so analog-based methods pick nearby locations, resulting in low velocity estimates. local velocities projected for Wisconsin are higher than global means. In this region, lake effects, not topographic heterogeneity, exert the strongest influences on regional patterns of climate-velocity and analogs. The multivariate analog-based velocities are correlated with univariate velocity measures that are scaled to local spatial heterogeneity, with the magnitude and correlation analog-based velocities estimates most similar to those of the intervariable mean of climate velocities. Because species are differentially sensitive to particular dimensions of climate change, and vary in their dispersal capacity, the strong differences among climate variables in the spatial direction, distance, and rate of projected climate change provide a powerful mechanism for community restructuring.

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Acknowledgments

Wisconsin Focus on Energy and its Environment and Economic Research Program and the Bryson Climate, People, and Environment Program at the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison supported this work. We thank Drs. M. Notaro, D. Lorenz, and D. Vimont for advice and access to the WICCI datasets, and three anonymous referees for their useful comments that helped improve this manuscript. This is CCR publication Number 1074.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, 53706, USA

    Alejandro Ordonez & John W. Williams

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  1. Alejandro Ordonez
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  2. John W. Williams
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Correspondence to Alejandro Ordonez.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

10584_2013_752_MOESM1_ESM.pdf

Appendix S1 Histogram of current and future (under the IPCC A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios) climatic availability for 19 bioclimatic variables. (PDF 32 kb)

10584_2013_752_MOESM2_ESM.pdf

Appendix S2 Histograms of the spatial distance and directional histograms (rose plots inserts) of the bearing between each Wisconsin grid cell and the North American grid-cell for 19 bioclimatic variables. (PDF 53 kb)

10584_2013_752_MOESM3_ESM.pdf

Appendix S3 Maps of spatial heterogeneity, temporal heterogeneity (under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios) and the resulting velocity of climate change (km*y−1) for 19 evaluated bio-climatic variables. (PDF 2574 kb)

10584_2013_752_MOESM4_ESM.pdf

Appendix S4 PERMANOVA and PERANOVA of differences in climatic local velocities (multiple and univariate) of areas with and without climatic analogs. (PDF 130 kb)

10584_2013_752_MOESM5_ESM.pdf

Appendix S5 Association between the multivariate analog-based velocities (calculated as the spatial displacement of climate analogs between time intervals divided by the time step) and the univariate local velocities (PDF 180 kb)

10584_2013_752_MOESM6_ESM.pdf

Appendix S6 Association between the spatio-temporal displacements predicted based on climate analog contrasts (analog-based velocity) and local velocity estimates. (PDF 63 kb)

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Ordonez, A., Williams, J.W. Projected climate reshuffling based on multivariate climate-availability, climate-analog, and climate-velocity analyses: implications for community disaggregation. Climatic Change 119, 659–675 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0752-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0752-1

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