Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Iranian rainfall series analysis by means of nonparametric tests

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The study of the trends and fluctuations in rainfall has received a great deal of attention, since changes in rainfall patterns may lead to floods or droughts. The objective of this study was to analyze the annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall time series at seven rain gauge stations in the west of Iran for a 40-year period (from October 1969 to September 2009). The homogeneity of the rainfall data sets at the rain gauge stations was checked by using the cumulative deviations test. Three nonparametric tests, namely Kendall, Spearman, and Mann–Kendall, at the 95 % confidence level were used for the trend analysis and the Theil–Sen estimator was applied for determining the magnitudes of the trends. According to the homogeneity analysis, all of the rainfall series except the September series at Vasaj station were found to be homogeneous. The obtained results showed an insignificant trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall series at the majority of the considered stations. Moreover, only three significant trends were observed at the February rainfall of Aghajanbolaghi station, the November series of Vasaj station, and the March rainfall series of Khomigan station. The findings of this study on the temporal trends of rainfall can be implemented to improve the water resources strategies in the study region.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Buffoni L, Maugeri M, Nanni T (1999) Precipitation in Italy from 1833 to 1996. Theor Appl Climatol 63:33–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buishand TA (1982) Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. J Hydrol 58:11–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheung WH, Senay GB, Singh A (2008) Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 28(13):1723–1734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cox DR, Stuart A (1955) Some quick tests for trend in location and dispersion. Biometrika 42:80–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croitoru AE, Holobâcă IH, Lazăr C, Moldovan F, Imbroane A (2012) Air temperature trend and the impact on winter wheat phenology in Romania. Clim Chang 111:393–410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croitoru AE, Piticar A, Imbroane AM, Burada DC (2013) Spatiotemporal distribution of aridity indices based on temperature and precipitation in the extra-Carpathian regions of Romania. Theor Appl Climatol 112(3–4):597–607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de la Casa A, Nasello O (2010) Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina. Atmos Res 95:419–427

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delju AH, Ceylan A, Piguet E, Rebetez M (2013) Observed climate variability and change in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 111(1–2):285–296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Luis M, Brunetti M, Gonzalez-Hidalgo JC, Longares LA, Martin-Vide M (2010) Changes in seasonal precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula during 1946–2005. Glob Planet Chang 74(1):27–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Domonkos P, Tar K (2003) Long-term changes in observed temperature and precipitation series 1901–1998 from Hungary and their relations to larger scale changes. Theor Appl Climatol 75:131–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dufek AS, Ambrizzi T (2008) Precipitation variability in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Theor Appl Climatol 93:167–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gocic M, Trajkovic S (2013) Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Glob Planet Chang 100:172–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA (1982) Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour Res 18(1):107–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hosseinzadeh Talaee P, Tabari H, Marofi S (2010) Comparison of parametric and non-parametric tests in considering monthly, seasonal and annual trends of river discharge and rainfall in Gamasiyab basin. 8th International River Engineering Conference, Shahid Chamran University, January 26–28, Ahwaz, Iran

  • Huang M, Zhang L (2004) Hydrological responses to conservation practices in a catchment of the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrol Process 18:1885–1898

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Houghton J.T., Ding Y., Griggs D.J., Noguer M., van der Linden P.J., Dai X., Maskell K., Johnson C.A. (Eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 881

  • Kahya E, Kalayci S (2004) Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. J Hydrol 289:128–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation measures. Charles Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG, Stuart A (1973) The advanced theory by statistics. Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kottegoda NT (1980) Stochastic water resources technology. Macmillan, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Lehmann EL (1975) Nonparametrics: statistical methods based on ranks, 1st edn. Holden-Day, San Francisco

    Google Scholar 

  • Lins HF (2005) Observed trends in hydrologic cycle components. In: Anderson MG (ed) Encyclopedia of hydrological sciences. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo Y, Liu S, Fu S, Liu J, Wang G, Zhou G (2008) Trends of precipitation in Beijiang River Basin, Guangdong Province, China. Hydrol Process 22:2377–2386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma Z, Kang S, Zhang L, Tong L, Su X (2008) Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. J Hydrol 352:239–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinez CJ, Maleski JJ, Miller MF (2012) Trends in precipitation and temperature in Florida, USA. J Hydrol 452–453:259–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahimzadeh F, Asgari A, Fattahi E (2009) Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. Int J Climatol 29:329–343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rai RK, Upadhyay A, Shekhar C, Ojha P, Singh VP (2012) The Yamuna River basin: water resources and environment. Springer, Heidelberg. doi:10.1007/978-94-007-2001-5_4, Water Science and Technology Library 66

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Raziei T, Mofidi А, Santos ЈА, Bordi I (2012) Spatial patterns and regimes of daily precipitation in Iran in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation. Int J Climatol 32(8):1226–1237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shifteh Some'e B, Ezani A, Tabari H (2012) Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran. Atmos Res 113:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shifteh Some'e B, Ezani A, Tabari H (2013) Spatiotemporal trends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 110:385–393

    Google Scholar 

  • Sneyers R (1990) On the statistical analysis of series of observations. Technical note no. 143, WMO no. 415. World Meteorological Organization

  • Soltani S, Saboohi R, Yaghmaei L (2011) Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran. Clim Chang 110:187–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Aghajanloo MB (2013) Temporal pattern of monthly aridity index in Iran with considering precipitation and evapotranspiration trends. Int J Climatol 33:396–409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P (2011) Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966–2005. J Hydrol 396:313–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P, Ezani A, Shifteh Some'e B (2012) Shift changes and monotonic trends in autocorrelated temperature series over Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 109:95–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theil H (1950) A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, part 3. Proc K Ned Akad Weinenschatpen A 53:1397–1412

    Google Scholar 

  • Tomozeiu R, Busuioc A, Marletto V, Zinoni F, Cacciamani C (2000) Detection of changes in the summer precipitation time series of the region Emilia-Romagna, Italy. Theor Appl Climatol 67:193–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yavuz H, Erdoğan S (2012) Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey. Water Resour Manag 26(3):609–621

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Singh VP, Peng J, Chen YD, Li J (2012) Spatial–temporal changes of precipitation structure across the Pearl River basin, China. J Hydrol 440–441:113–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions which improved the content of the paper. The author would like also to acknowledge the Hamedan Regional Water Co. for providing the data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Young Researchers and Elites Club, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran

    P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee

Authors
  1. P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Talaee, P.H. Iranian rainfall series analysis by means of nonparametric tests. Theor Appl Climatol 116, 597–607 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0981-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0981-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation