Abstract
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is poorly represented in global coupled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), with trademark biases such as the tendency to form a “double Intertropical convergence zone” and an equatorial cold tongue that extends too far westward. Such biases limit our confidence in projections of the future climate change for this region. In this study, we use a downscaling strategy based on a regional atmospheric general circulation model that accurately captures the SPCZ present-day climatology and interannual variability. More specifically, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected rainfall response to either just correcting present-day CMIP5 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) biases or correcting projected SST changes using an emergent constraint approach. While the equatorial western Pacific projected rainfall increase is robust in our experiments and CMIP5, correcting the projected CMIP5 SST changes yields a considerably larger reduction (~ 25%) than in CMIP5 simulations (~ + 3%) in the southwestern Pacific. Indeed, correcting the projected CMIP5 warming pattern yields stronger projected SST gradients, and more humidity convergence reduction under the SPCZ. Finally, our bias-corrected set of experiments yields an increase in equatorial rainfall and SPCZ variability in the future, but does not support the future increase in the frequency of zonal SPCZ events simulated by CMIP5 models. This study hence suggests that atmospheric downscaling studies should not only correct CMIP5 present-day SST biases but also projected SST changes to improve the reliability of their projections. Additional simulations with different physical parameterizations yield robust results.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290
Bellenger H, Guilyardi E, Leloup J, Lengaigne M, Vialard J (2014) ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim Dyn 42:1999–2018
Bracegirdle TJ, Stephenson DB (2013) On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of arctic warming. J Clim 26:669–678
Bretherton CS, Park S (2009) A new moist turbulence parameterization in the community atmosphere model. J Clim 22:3422–3448
Brown JR, Power SB, Delage FP, Colman RA, Moise AF, Murphy BF (2011) Evaluation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 climate model simulations of the twentieth century. J Clim 24:1565–1582
Brown JR, Moise AF, Delage FP (2012) Changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 future climate projections. Clim Dyn 39:1–19
Brown JR, Moise AF, Colman RA (2013) The South Pacific Convergence Zone in CMIP5 simulations of historical and future climate. Clim Dyn 41:2179–2197
Brown JN, Matear RJ, Brown JR, Katzfey J (2015) Precipitation projections in the tropical Pacific are sensitive to different types of SST bias adjustment: precipitation and SST bias adjustment. Geophys Res Lett 42:10,856–10,866
Cai W, Lengaigne M, Borlace S, Collins M, Cowan T, McPhaden MJ, Timmermann A, Power S, Brown J, Menkes C et al (2012) More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming. Nature 488:365–369
Cai W, Borlace S, Lengaigne M, van Rensch P, Collins M, Vecchi G, Timmermann A, Santoso A, McPhaden MJ, Wu L et al (2014) Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Change 4:111–116
Cai W, Santoso A, Wang G, Yeh S-W, An S-I, Cobb KM, Collins M, Guilyardi E, Jin F-F, Kug J-S et al (2015) ENSO and greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Change 5:849–859
Chen F, Dudhia J (2001) Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: model implementation and sensitivity. Mon Weather Rev 129:569–585
Chung CTY, Power SB (2016) Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific. Clim Dyn 47:1303–1323
Chung CTY, Power SB, Arblaster JM, Rashid HA, Roff GL (2014) Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific. Clim Dyn 42:1837–1856
Collins WD, Rasch PJ, Boville BA, Hack JJ, McCaa JR, Williamson DL, Kiehl JT, Briegleb B, Bitz C, Lin S-J et al (2004) Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0), p 226
Collins M, An S-I, Cai W, Ganachaud A, Guilyardi E, Jin F-F, Jochum M, Lengaigne M, Power S, Timmermann A et al (2010) The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nat Geosci 3:391–397
Deser C, Phillips AS, Alexander MA (2010) Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited: twentieth century tropical SST trends. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043321
Evans JP, Bormann K, Katzfey J, Dean S, Arritt R (2016) Regional climate model projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Clim Dyn 47:817–829
Folland CK (2002) Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Geophys Res Lett 29(13):211–214. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014201
Gouriou Y, Delcroix T (2002) Seasonal and ENSO variations of sea surface salinity and temperature in the South Pacific Convergence Zone during 1976–2000: sea surface salinity and temperature in the SPCZ. J Geophys Res Oceans 107:SRF 12-1-SRF 12-14
Grose MR, Brown JN, Narsey S, Brown JR, Murphy BF, Langlais C, Gupta AS, Moise AF, Irving DB (2014) Assessment of the CMIP5 global climate model simulations of the western tropical Pacific climate system and comparison to CMIP3: assesment of CMIP5 climate models for the western tropical pacific. Int J Climatol 34:3382–3399
Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686–5699
Herger N, Abramowitz G, Knutti R, Angélil O, Lehmann K, Sanderson BM (2018) Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties. Earth Syst Dyn 9(1):135–151. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018
Hong S-Y, Dudhia J, Chen S-H (2004) A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 132:103–120
Huang P, Ying J (2015) A multimodel ensemble pattern regression method to correct the tropical pacific sst change patterns under global warming. J Clim 28:4706–4723
Huang P, Xie S-P, Hu K, Huang G, Huang R (2013) Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming. Nat Geosci 6:357–361
Iacono MJ, Delamere JS, Mlawer EJ, Shephard MW, Clough SA, Collins WD (2008) Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: calculations with the AER radiative transfer models. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944
Irving D, Perkins S, Brown J, Sen Gupta A, Moise A, Murphy B, Muir L, Colman R, Power S, Delage F et al (2011) Evaluating global climate models for the Pacific island region. Clim Res 49:169–187
Janjić ZI (1994) The step-mountain eta coordinate model: further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. Mon Weather Rev 122:927–945
Jiménez PA, Dudhia J, González-Rouco JF, Navarro J, Montávez JP, García-Bustamante E (2012) A revised scheme for the WRF surface layer formulation. Mon Weather Rev 140(3):898–918. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1
Jourdain NC, Marchesiello P, Menkes CE, Lefèvre J, Vincent EM, Lengaigne M, Chauvin F (2011) Mesoscale simulation of tropical cyclones in the south Pacific: climatology and interannual variability. J Clim 24:3–25
Juillet-Leclerc A, Thiria S, Naveau P, Delcroix T, Le Bec N, Blamart D, Corrège T (2006) SPCZ migration and ENSO events during the 20th century as revealed by climate proxies from a Fiji coral. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025950
Jullien S, Marchesiello P, Menkes CE, Lefvre J, Jourdain NC, Samson G, Lengaigne M (2014) Ocean feedback to tropical cyclones: climatology and processes. Clim Dyn 43:2831–2854
Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643
Kidwell A, Lee T, Jo Y-H, Yan X-H (2016) Characterization of the variability of the south pacific convergence zone using satellite and reanalysis wind products. J Clim 29:1717–1732
Kiladis GN, von Storch H, Loon H (1989) Origin of the South Pacific convergence zone. J Clim 2:1185–1195
Kirono DGC, Kent DM, Hennessy KJ, Mpelasoka F (2011) Characteristics of Australian droughts under enhanced greenhouse conditions: results from 14 global climate models. J Arid Environ 75:566–575
Knutson TR, Sirutis JJ, Garner ST, Vecchi GA, Held IM (2008) Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nat Geosci 1:359–364
Knutti R, Furrer R, Tebaldi C, Cermak J, Meehl GA (2010) Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. J Clim 23(10):2739–2758. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1
Knutti R, Sedláček J, Sanderson BM, Lorenz R, Fischer EM, Eyring V (2017) A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence. Geophys Res Lett 44(4):1909–1918. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012
Lefèvre J, Menkes C, Bani P, Marchesiello P, Curci G, Grell GA, Frouin R (2016) Distribution of sulfur aerosol precursors in the SPCZ released by continuous volcanic degassing at Ambrym, Vanuatu. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 322:76–104
Li G, Xie S-P (2014) Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: the excessive equatorial pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems*. J Clim 27:1765–1780
Li G, Du Y, Xu H, Ren B (2015) An intermodel approach to identify the source of excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue in CMIP5 models and uncertainty in observational datasets. J Clim 28:7630–7640
Li G, Xie S-P, Du Y, Luo Y (2016) Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Clim Dyn 47:3817–3831
Lin Y-L, Farley RD, Orville HD (1983) Bulk Parameterization of the Snow Field in a Cloud Model. J Clim Appl Meteorol 22:1065–1092
Lintner BR, Langenbrunner B, Neelin JD, Anderson BT, Niznik MJ, Li G, Xie S-P (2016) Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones. J Geophys Res Atmos 121(19):11590–11607. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025284
Matsueda M, Palmer TN (2011) Accuracy of climate change predictions using high resolution simulations as surrogates of truth: accuracy of climate change predictions. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046618
Matthews AJ (2012) A multiscale framework for the origin and variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Q J R Meteorol Soc 138(666):1165–1178. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1870
McGree S, Whan K, Jones D, Alexander LV, Imielska A, Diamond H, Ene E, Finaulahi S, Inape K, Jacklick L et al (2014) An updated assessment of trends and variability in total and extreme rainfall in the western Pacific: trends and variability in extreme rainfall in the western pacific. Int J Climatol 34:2775–2791
Mechoso CR, Robertson AW, Barth N, Davey MK, Delecluse P, Gent PR, Ineson S, Kirtman B, Latif M, Treut HL et al (1995) The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Mon Weather Rev 123:2825–2838
Meehl GA, Covey C, Taylor KE, Delworth T, Stouffer RJ, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1383–1394
Meng Q, Latif M, Park W, Keenlyside NS, Semenov VA, Martin T (2012) Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments. Clim Dyn 38:1757–1773
Murphy BF, Ye H, Delage F (2015) Impacts of variations in the strength and structure of El Niño events on Pacific rainfall in CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 44:3171–3186
Nguyen KC, Katzfey JJ, McGregor JL (2012) Global 60 km simulations with CCAM: evaluation over the tropics. Clim Dyn 39:637–654
Niznik MJ, Lintner BR, Matthews AJ, Widlansky MJ (2015) The role of tropical–extratropical interaction and synoptic variability in maintaining the south pacific convergence zone in CMIP5 models. J Clim 28:3353–3374
Noh Y, Cheon WG, Hong SY, Raasch S (2003) Improvement of the K-profile model for the planetary boundary layer based on large eddy simulation data. Bound-Layer Meteorol 107:401–427
Park S, Bretherton CS (2009) The university of washington shallow convection and moist turbulence schemes and their impact on climate simulations with the community atmosphere model. J Clim 22(12):3449–3469. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2557.1
Parvathi V, Suresh I, Lengaigne M, Izumo T, Vialard J (2017) Robust projected weakening of winter monsoon winds over the arabian sea under climate change. Geophys Res Lett 44:9833–9843
Perkins SE (2011) Biases and model agreement in projections of climate extremes over the tropical Pacific. Earth Interact 15:1–36
Power S, Delage F, Chung C, Kociuba G, Keay K (2013) Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability. Nature 502:541–545
Santoso A, Mcphaden MJ, Cai W (2017) The defining characteristics of ENSO extremes and the strong 2015/2016 El Niño: ENSO extremes. Rev Geophys 55(4):1079–1129. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000560
Skamarock WC, Klemp JB (2008) A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications. J Comput Phys 227:3465–3485
Solomon A, Newman M (2012) Reconciling disparate twentieth-century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record. Nat Clim Change 2:691–699
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498
Timmermann A, An S-I, Kug J-S, Jin F-F, Cai W, Capotondi A, Cobb K, Lengaigne M, McPhaden MJ, Stuecker MF, Stein K, Wittenberg AT, Yun K-S, Bayr T, Chen H-C, Chikamoto Y, Dewitte B, Dommenget D, Grothe P, Guilyardi E, Ham Y-G, Hayashi M, Ineson S, Kang D, Kim S, Kim W, Lee J-Y, Li T, Luo J-J, McGregor S, Planton Y, Power S, Rashid H, Ren H-L, Santoso A, Takahashi K, Todd A, Wang G, Wang G, Xie R, Yang W-H, Yeh S-W, Yoon J, Zeller E, Zhang X (2018) El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity. Nature 559(7715):535–545. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6
Tokinaga H, Xie S-P, Deser C, Kosaka Y, Okumura YM (2012) Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming. Nature 491:439–443
Trenberth KE (1976) Spatial and temporal variations of the Southern Oscillation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 102:639–653
van Vuuren DP et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
van der Wiel K, Matthews AJ, Stevens DP, Joshi MM (2015) A dynamical framework for the origin of the diagonal South Pacific and South Atlantic Convergence Zones. Q J R Meteorol Soc 141(691):1997–2010. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2508
van der Wiel K, Matthews AJ, Joshi MM, Stevens DP (2016a) Why the South Pacific Convergence Zone is diagonal. Clim Dyn 46(5–6):1683–1698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2668-0
van der Wiel K, Matthews AJ, Joshi MM, Stevens DP (2016b) The influence of diabetic heating in the South Pacific Convergence Zone on Rossby wave propagation and the mean flow: the Influence of Diabetic Heating in the SPCZ on Rossby Wave Propagation and the Mean Flow. Q J R Meteorol Soc 142(695):901–910. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2692
Vecchi GA, Clement A, Soden BJ (2008) Examining the tropical Pacific’s response to global warming. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 89:81–83
Vincent DG (1994) The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ): a review. Mon Weather Rev 122:1949–1970
Vincent EM, Lengaigne M, Menkes CE, Jourdain NC, Marchesiello P, Madec G (2011) Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis. Clim Dyn 36:1881–1896
Walsh K (2015) Fine resolution simulations of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones in the South Pacific. Clim Dyn 45:2619–2631
Watanabe M, Kamae Y, Kimoto M (2014) Robust increase of the equatorial Pacific rainfall and its variability in a warmed climate: increasing pacific rainfall variability. Geophys Res Lett 41:3227–3232
Widlansky MJ, Webster PJ, Hoyos CD (2011) On the location and orientation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Clim Dyn 36(3–4):561–578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0871-6
Widlansky MJ, Timmermann A, Stein K, McGregor S, Schneider N, England MH, Lengaigne M, Cai W (2013) Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate. Nat Clim Change 3:417–423
Xie S-P, Deser C, Vecchi GA, Collins M, Delworth TL, Hall A, Hawkins E, Johnson NC, Cassou C, Giannini A et al (2015) Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nat Clim Change 5:921–930
Xu K-M, Randall DA (1996) A semiempirical cloudiness parameterization for use in climate models. J Atmos Sci 53(21):3084–3102. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<3084:ASCPFU>2.0.CO;2
Zhang GJ, McFarlane NA (1995) Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian climate centre general circulation model. Atmos Ocean 33:407–446
Zheng Y, Lin J-L, Shinoda T (2012) The equatorial Pacific cold tongue simulated by IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: upper ocean heat budget and feedback analysis: the pacific cold tongue bias analysis. J Geophys Res Oceans. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007746
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dutheil, C., Bador, M., Lengaigne, M. et al. Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Clim Dyn 53, 3197–3219 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04692-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04692-6