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Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias

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An Erratum to this article was published on 08 January 2015

Abstract

We have evaluated the simulation of Indian summer monsoon and its intraseasonal oscillations in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2). The dry bias over the Indian landmass in the mean monsoon rainfall is one of the major concerns. In spite of this dry bias, CFSv2 shows a reasonable northward propagation of convection at intraseasonal (30–60 day) time scale. In order to document and understand this dry bias over the Indian landmass in CFSv2 simulations, a two pronged investigation is carried out on the two major facets of Indian summer monsoon: one, the air–sea interactions and two, the large scale vertical heating structure in the model. Our analysis shows a possible bias in the co-evolution of convection and sea surface temperature in CFSv2 over the equatorial Indian Ocean. It is also found that the simulated large scale vertical heat source (Q1) and moisture sink (Q2) over the Indian region are biased relative to observational estimates. Finally, this study provides a possible explanation for the dry precipitation bias over the Indian landmass in the simulated mean monsoon on the basis of the biases associated with the simulated ocean–atmospheric processes and the vertical heating structure. This study also throws some light on the puzzle of CFSv2 exhibiting a reasonable northward propagation at the intraseasonal time scale (30–60 day) despite a drier monsoon over the Indian land mass.

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Acknowledgments

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Pune, India) is fully funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, New Delhi. RM gratefully acknowledges partial support from NASA PO and JPL Grants on Bio-Physical Feedbacks, the ONR DYNAMO grant, and the MoES NMM grants.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 4111008, India

    Bidyut B. Goswami, Medha Deshpande, P. Mukhopadhyay, Subodh K. Saha, Suryachandra A. Rao & B. N. Goswami

  2. University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20740, USA

    Raghu Murthugudde

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  1. Bidyut B. Goswami
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  2. Medha Deshpande
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  6. Raghu Murthugudde
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Correspondence to P. Mukhopadhyay.

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Goswami, B.B., Deshpande, M., Mukhopadhyay, P. et al. Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias. Clim Dyn 43, 2725–2745 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2089-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2089-5

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