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Influence of ENSO and of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian summer monsoon variability

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Abstract

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability is forced from external factors (like the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) but it contains also an internal component that tends to reduce its potential for predictability. Large-scale and local monsoon indices based on precipitation and atmospheric circulation parameters are used as a measure of ISM variability. In a 9-members ensemble of AMIP-type experiments (with same boundary SST forcing and different initial conditions) their potential predictability is comparable using both local and large-scale monsoon indices. In the sample analyzed, about half of more predictable monsoon years coincide with El Niño and/or positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Summer monsoon characteristics during ENSO and IOD years are analyzed through composites computed over a three years period (i.e. one year before and one year after the event peak) to investigate the mutual relationship between the events lagged in time. The connection between ISM and IOD is mostly confined in the summer and autumn, while that with ENSO is stronger and extends more in time. In the coupled model results the IOD influence on the monsoon is large, even because in the model IOD events are intense and easily reproduced due to a strong air-sea feedback in the eastern side of the basin. Monsoon seasons preceding or following an El Niño or a La Niña event are not exactly symmetric, even in terms of their biennial character. In most of the cases, both in reanalysis and model, El Niño and positive IOD events tend to co-occur with larger anomalies either in the Indo-Pacific ocean sector or over India, while La Niña and negative IOD do not. From the observed record, the ENSO-IOD correlation is positive strong and significant since mid-60s and it may correspond with either strong or weak ENSO-monsoon relationship and with strong or weak IOD-monsoon relationship. A main difference between those periods is the relationship between Indian monsoon rainfall and SST in other ocean basins rather than the Indo-Pacific sector alone.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers whose comments help to improve the manuscript. We acknowledge the EU FP7-INCO INDO-MARECLIM project for financial support. The support of Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research, and Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA is gratefully acknowledged as well. AC thanks Dr. A Alessandri for helpful comments on predictability issues.

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  1. Centro Euromediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (CMCC/INGV), Viale Aldo Moro 44, 40127, Bologna, Italy

    Annalisa Cherchi & Antonio Navarra

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  1. Annalisa Cherchi
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Correspondence to Annalisa Cherchi.

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Cherchi, A., Navarra, A. Influence of ENSO and of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 41, 81–103 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1602-y

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