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Trend analysis for rainfall in Delhi and Mumbai, India

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Abstract

Urbanisation has burdened cities with many problems associated with growth and the physical environment. Some of the urban locations in India are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards related to precipitation and flooding. Thus it becomes increasingly important to study the characteristics of these events and their physical explanation. This work studies rainfall trends in Delhi and Mumbai, the two biggest Metropolitan cities of Republic of India, during the period from 1951 to 2004. Precipitation data was studied on basis of months, seasons and years, and the total period divided in the two different time periods of 1951–1980 and 1981–2004 for detailed analysis. Long-term trends in rainfall were determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and linear regression. Further this study seeks for an explanation for precipitation trends during monsoon period by different global climate phenomena. Principal component analysis and Singular value decomposition were used to find relation between southwest monsoon precipitation and global climatic phenomena using climatic indices. Most of the rainfall at both the stations was found out to be taking place in Southwest monsoon season. The analysis revealed great degree of variability in precipitation at both stations. There is insignificant decrease in long term southwest monsoon rainfall over Delhi and slight significant decreasing trends for long term southwest monsoon rainfall in Mumbai. Decrease in average maximum rainfall in a day was also indicated by statistical analysis for both stations. Southwest monsoon precipitation in Delhi was found directly related to Scandinavian Pattern and East Atlantic/West Russia and inversely related to Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas precipitation in Mumbai was found inversely related to Indian ocean dipole, El Niño- Southern Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources Engineering, LTH, Lund University, Box No. 118, 22100, Lund, Sweden

    Arun Rana, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo & Lars Bengtsson

  2. Center for Environmental Sciences, Central University of Bihar, Camp Office: BIT Campus-Patna, P.O-B.V. College, Patna, Bihar, 800014, India

    P. Parth Sarthi

Authors
  1. Arun Rana
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  2. Cintia Bertacchi Uvo
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  3. Lars Bengtsson
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  4. P. Parth Sarthi
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Correspondence to Arun Rana.

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Rana, A., Uvo, C.B., Bengtsson, L. et al. Trend analysis for rainfall in Delhi and Mumbai, India. Clim Dyn 38, 45–56 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1083-4

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