Recent Progress in Numerical Atmospheric Modeling in China

Abstract

This review summarizes the scientific and technical progress in atmospheric modeling in China since 2011, including the dynamical core, model physics, data assimilation, ensemble forecasting, and model evaluation strategies. In terms of the dynamical core, important efforts have been made in the improvement of the existing model formulations and in exploring new modeling approaches that can better adapt to massively parallel computers and global multiscale modeling. With regard to model physics, various achievements in physical representations have been made, especially a trend toward scale-aware parameterization for accommodating the increase of model resolution. In the field of data assimilation, a 4D-Var system has been developed and is operationally used by the National Meteorological Center of China, and its performance is promising. Furthermore, ensemble forecasting has played a more important role in operational forecast systems and progressed in many fundamental techniques. Model evaluation strategies, including key performance metrics and standardized experimental protocols, have been proposed and widely applied to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the systems, offering key routes for model improvement. The paper concludes with a concise summary of the status quo and a brief outlook in terms of future development.

摘要

本综述回顾了自2011年以来中国科学家在大气数值模拟领域的科学和技术进展, 包括动力框架, 模式物理, 资料同化, 集合预报和模式评估等. 动力框架方面, 重要工作包括对现有模型架构的改进, 以及对适用于大规模并行计算和全球多尺度模拟的新技术探索. 模式物理方面, 在不同过程的参数化上取得了一系列成果, 特别是为适应模式分辨率的增加而兴起的尺度自适应型参数化方案的研究. 数据同化方面, 我国的四维资料变分系统已经建成并已在国家气象中心业务运行, 显示出进步效果. 同时, 集合预报在业务预报系统中的作用愈发凸显, 与其相关基础技术也得到了发展. 此外, 涵盖关键性能指标和标准化测试协议在内的模式评估策略已经得到了广泛应用. 它们为评估模式优缺点和改进模式性能提供了重要的指示意义. 文章最后简要总结了当前数值模式发展现状, 并展望了未来的发展.