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Regional frequency analysis of observed sub-daily rainfall maxima over eastern China

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Abstract

Based on hourly rainfall observational data from 442 stations during 1960–2014, a regional frequency analysis of the annual maxima (AM) sub-daily rainfall series (1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, using a moving window approach) for eastern China was conducted. Eastern China was divided into 13 homogeneous regions: Northeast (NE1, NE2), Central (C), Central North (CN1, CN2), Central East (CE1, CE2, CE3), Southeast (SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4), and Southwest (SW). The generalized extreme value performed best for the AM series in regions NE, C, CN2, CE1, CE2, SE2, and SW, and the generalized logistic distribution was appropriate in the other regions. Maximum return levels were in the SE4 region, with value ranges of 80–270 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) and 108–390 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) for 20- and 100 yr, respectively. Minimum return levels were in the CN1 and NE1 regions, with values of 37–104 mm and 53–140 mm for 20 and 100 yr, respectively. Comparing return levels using the optimal and commonly used Pearson-III distribution, the mean return-level differences in eastern China for 1–24-h rainfall varied from −3–4 mm to −23–11 mm (−10%–10%) for 20-yr events, reaching −6–26 mm (−10%–30%) and −10–133 mm (−10%–90%) for 100-yr events. In view of the large differences in estimated return levels, more attention should be given to frequency analysis of sub-daily rainfall over China, for improved water management and disaster reduction.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Basic Research (973) Program of China (Grant Nos. 2013CB430205 and 2012CB955903), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41171406, 41375099, 41561124014 and 91337108). We thank the National Meteorological Information Center for providing the hourly rainfall data. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for providing useful suggestions to improve this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Hemin Sun, Guojie Wang, Xiucang Li, Jing Chen, Buda Su & Tong Jiang

  2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ürümqi, 830011, China

    Buda Su

  3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Hemin Sun, Xiucang Li, Jing Chen, Buda Su & Tong Jiang

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  1. Hemin Sun
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  2. Guojie Wang
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Correspondence to Tong Jiang.

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Sun, H., Wang, G., Li, X. et al. Regional frequency analysis of observed sub-daily rainfall maxima over eastern China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34, 209–225 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6086-y

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