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Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

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Abstract

Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R 2 = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Ms. Minako Edgar at the Institute for Fisheries Research for her assistance in preparing GIS layers, Dr. Sasha Kravchenko and Juan David Munoz at Michigan States Department of Crop and Soil Science for their assistance with statistical analysis. Support was provided by The Nature Conservancy’s Great Lakes Fund for Partnership in Conservation Science and Economics. Funding for this project was provided by a Grant from the US Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service agreement number 68-3A75-8-86.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Plant, Soil, and Microbial Sciences, Michigan State University, 1066 Bogue Street, Room A286, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    Matthew D. Einheuser & A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi

  2. Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, 524 S. Shaw Lane, Room 225, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi & Sean A. Woznicki

  3. Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Institute for Fisheries Research, University of Michigan, University, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA

    Lizhu Wang

  4. The Nature Conservancy, Michigan Field Office, 101 E, Grand River Ave., Lansing, MI, 48906, USA

    Scott P. Sowa

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  1. Matthew D. Einheuser
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Correspondence to A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi.

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Einheuser, M.D., Nejadhashemi, A.P., Wang, L. et al. Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health. Environmental Management 51, 1147–1163 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-013-0043-7

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