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Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere

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Abstract

Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and \(\Delta \hbox {UT1}\) for up to 90 days into the future. Based on hindcast experiments covering the years 2016 and 2017, a best performing parametrization was elaborated. At forecast horizons of 10 days, remaining prediction errors are 3.02 and 5.39 mas for PM and \(\Delta \hbox {UT1}\), respectively, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 44.7% when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. At forecast horizons of 60 days, prediction errors are 12.52 and 107.96 mas for PM and \(\Delta \hbox {UT1}\), corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 8.2% over Bulletin A. The 90-day-long EAM forecasts leading to those improved EOP predictions are routinely published on a daily basis at isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/esmdata/eam.

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  1. Section 1.3: Earth System Modelling, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany

    R. Dill, H. Dobslaw & M. Thomas

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  1. R. Dill
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  2. H. Dobslaw
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  3. M. Thomas
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Correspondence to R. Dill.

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Dill, R., Dobslaw, H. & Thomas, M. Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere. J Geod 93, 287–295 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-018-1158-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-018-1158-7

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