Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Housing and children: simultaneous decisions?—a cohort study of young adults’ housing and family formation decision

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Journal of Population Economics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study contributes to earlier research on homeownership and childbearing by taking into account the potential simultaneity between these two life events. A dataset comprising three different Swedish birth cohorts suggests that these are events that are indeed simultaneous. Different tests indicate that taking this simultaneity into account gives an overall statistically significant improvement of the model fit. However, this result is most obvious for those young adults who faced increasing problems on the housing market. The childbearing decision of these cohorts also seems to be more sensitive to changes in the user cost.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. http://www.scb.se/Pages/TableAndChart____74164.aspx, accessed 2009–09–02.

  2. Homeownership is here synonymous with detached or terraced housing since owner occupation/homeownership was only possible in single-family as well as terraced houses in Sweden before 2009. Today, there is a small number of owner occupied flats in Sweden but they are not included in this study since the time period of this analysis embraces the year 2003 at most.

  3. The Million Program was a housing program that was implemented in Sweden in 1965 and its construction took place in 1965–1974. The aim of the program was to build a million dwellings in a 10-year period to ensure that all citizens could have a home at a reasonable price.

  4. Tenant-ownership requires a membership in a housing cooperative association which is obtained through a capital investment and maintained by monthly charges to cover the cost of the association’s loans as well as the operating costs. The members do not have full ownership rights and obligations but are allowed to sell their dwelling on the market.

  5. http://www.scb.se/Pages/TableAndChart____74164.aspx, accessed October 29, 2009.

  6. http://www.skl.se/artikel.asp?A = 11248&C = 445, accessed October 29, 2009.

  7. The Million Program was a housing program that was implemented in Sweden in 1965. The aim of the program was to build a million dwellings in a 10-year period to ensure that all citizens could have a home at a reasonable price.

  8. The models have also been estimated by including the user cost as a separate variable in the house choice model together with dummy variables for the municipalities but this did not alter the result.

  9. We have also included dummy variables for the municipalities. It was only the estimated coefficient for metropolitan municipalities that was significant. However, it became insignificant when including the unemployment rates in the model.

  10. All models have also been estimated by excluding the variable controlling for students as well as tenant-ownerships. This did not have any crucial effect on the estimated coefficients and, moreover, no effect on the cross-equation correlation coefficient ρ. We have also included variables controlling for educational level but none of these variables were significant. Furthermore, since they could also be argued to be correlated with household disposable income and the student variable, they were excluded from the model.

    Since being a tenant-owner to a certain degree implies an opportunity to have an influence on the housing situation, the analysis has been made (not presented here but the result can be received from the author upon request) by including tenant-owning in the category homeownership, i.e., the outcome variable “becoming a homeowner” includes tenant-ownership, detached single-family houses as well as terraced houses and multi-family houses then only refer to rental apartments. The result showed a significant (at the 5 percent level) cross-equation correlation coefficient ρ equal to 0.12 for cohort 74. However, ρ for cohorts 64 and 56 was close to zero and insignificant.

  11. I am grateful to an anonymous referee that pointed out this interpretation.

References

  • Agell J, Englund P, Södersten J (1995) Svensk skattepolitik i teori och praktik. 1991 års skattereform [Swedish tax policy in theory and in practice, the tax reform of 1991]. Bilaga 1 till SOU 1995:104. Nordstedts Tryckeri Ab, Stockholm

    Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson B (2006) Varför så olika? Om en nordisk gåta och hur den kan lösas [Why so different? A nordic mystery and how it can be solved]. In Bengtsson B (ed) Varför så olika? Nordisk Bostadspolitik i jämförande historiskt ljus. Égalité, Malmö

    Google Scholar 

  • Bergenstråhle S (2009) Unga vuxnas boende. Förändringar i riket 1997 till 2009. [The housing situation of young adults. Changes between 1997 and 2009]. Rapport 1:2009 I en skriftserie från Hyresgästföreningen

  • Castiglioni M, Dalla Zuanna G (1994) Innovation and tradition: reproductive and marital behaviour in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s. Eur J Popul 10(2):107–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark W, Onaka JL (1983) Life cycle and housing adjustment as explanations of residential mobility. Urban Studies 20(1):47–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark WAV, Dieleman FM (1996) Households and housing: choice and outcomes in the housing market. Rutgers University, Center for Urban Policy Research, New Jersey

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark WAV, Davies Whiters SD (1999) Changing jobs and changing houses: mobility outcomes of employment transitions. J Reg Sci 39(4):653–673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark WAV, Huang Y (2003) The life course and residential mobility in British Housing markets. Environ Plann A 35(2):323–339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark WAV, Davies Whiters SD (2007) Family migration and mobility sequences in the Unites States: spatial mobility in the context of the life course. Demographic Research 17(20):591–622

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark WAV, Deurloo MC, Dieleman FM (1994) Tenure changes in the context of micro level family and macro level economic shifts. Urban Studies 31(1):137–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Courgeau D (1985) Interaction between spatial mobility, family and career life-cycle: a French survey. Eur Sociol Rev 1(2):139–162

    Google Scholar 

  • Courgeau D, Lelièvre E (1992) Interrelations between first home-ownership, constitution of the family, and professional occupation in France. In: Trussell J, Hankinson R, Tilton J (eds) Demographic applications of event history analysis. Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp 120–140

    Google Scholar 

  • Deurloo MC, Clark WAV, Dieleman FM (1994) The move to housing ownership in temporal and regional contexts. Environ Plann A 26(11):1659–1670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dougherty A, Van Order R (1982) Inflation, housing costs, and the consumer price index. Am Econ Rev 72(1):154–163

    Google Scholar 

  • Edin PA, Fredriksson P (2000) Linda-Longitudinal Individual Data for Sweden. Working Paper 2000:25, Department of Economics, Uppsala University

  • Englund P, Hendershott PH, Turner B (1995) The tax reform and the housing market. Tax Reform Evaluation Report No 20. National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm

  • Feijten P, Mulder CH (2002) The timing of household events and housing events in the Netherlands: a longitudinal perspective. Hous Stud 17(2):773–792

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greene W (1996) Marginal Effects in the Bivariate Probit Model. Working Paper No. 96–11. Department of Economics. Stern School of Business, New York University.

  • Gustafsson B, Johansson M, Palmer E (2003) Barnens inkomststandard under 90-talets djupa recession och den följande återhämtningen [Child income in the deep recession of the 1990s and the subsequent recovery]. Soc Vetensk Tidskr 10(1):3–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Hakim C (2003) Models of the family in modern societies: ideals and realities. Ashgate, Aldershot

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansson I (1983) Skattereformen och de totala marginaleffekterna [Tax reform and the total marginal effects]. Ekonomisk Debatt, nr 1

  • Institute for Futures Studies. (2006). Sustainable policies in an ageing Europe. A Human Capital Response. Society and the Future Research Report Series, No. 3. Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm

    Google Scholar 

  • Johansson M (2002) Ålder, inkomst och jämlikhet [Age, income and equality] i Befolkning och välfärd. Institutet för framtidsstudier, Stockholm

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan V, Krotki KJ (1993) Life cycle effects on home-ownership in Canada. Hous Stud 8(2):120–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulu H (2008) Fertility and spatial mobility in the life course: evidence from Austria. Environ Plann A 40(1):632–652

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulu H, Vikat A (2007) Fertility differences by housing type: the effect of housing conditions or of selective moves? Demographic Research 17(26):775–802

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lesthaeghe R (ed) (2002) Meaning and Choice: Value Orientations and Life Course Decisions. NIDI, The Hague

    Google Scholar 

  • Lauster NT (2010) Housing and the proper performance of american motherhood, 1940–2005. Hous Stud 25(4):543–557

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malmberg B (2001) Bostad och Babyboom – Bostadskostnadernas effekter på barnafödandet i Sverige 1810–1996 [Housing and Baby Boom – The effect of housing costs on child-birth in Sweden 1810–1996]. i Rapport från forskarseminariet i Umeå januari 2001

  • Mulder CH (2006a) Home-ownership and family formation. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment 21(1):281–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulder CH (2006b) Population and housing: a two-sided relationship. Demographic Research 15(13):401–412

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulder CH, Billari FC (2010) Homeownership regimes and low fertility. Hous Stud 25(4):527–541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulder CH, Wagner M (1993) Migration and marriage in the life course: a method for studying synchronized events. Eur J Popul 9(1):55–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulder CH, Wagner M (1998) First-time home-ownership in the family life course: a West German-Dutch comparison. Urban Studies 35(4):687–713

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulder CH, Wagner M (2001) The connections between family formation and first-time home ownership in the context of West Germany and the Netherlands. Eur J Popul 17(2):137–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy MJ, Sullivan O (1985) Housing tenure and family formation in contemporary Britain. Eur Sociol Rev 1(1):230–243

    Google Scholar 

  • Pinnelli A (1995) Women’s condition, low fertility, and emerging union patterns in Europe. In: Mason KO, Jensen A-M (ed) Gender and family change in industrialized countries. Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp 82–101

    Google Scholar 

  • Poterba J (1992) Taxation and housing: old questions, new answers. Am Econ Rev 82(2):237–242

    Google Scholar 

  • Rossi PH (1955) Why families move: a study in the social psychology of urban residential mobility. Free Press, Glencoe

    Google Scholar 

  • SOU 2007:14. Renovering av bostadsmarknaden efterlyses! Om ungas möjlighet till en egen bostad. [A plea for renewal of the housing market! On young adult’s opportunity to a housing of their own]. Slutbetänkande av boutredningen. Fritzes, Stockholm

  • Statistics Sweden (2007). Folkmängd i hela riket, länen och kommunerna 31 december 2006. [Population in the whole country, counties and municipalities on 31 december 2006]. Statistiska meddelanden BE 12 SM 0701

  • Statistics Sweden (2008) Ungas flytt hemifrån. [Young peoples move from home]. Demogr Rapp 5

  • Ström S (2009) Housing and first births in Sweden, 1972–2005. Hous Stud 25(4):509–526

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thalberg S (2009) Childbearing of students. The case of Sweden. Working paper/Institute for Future Studies; 2009:6, Stockholm

  • Åsberg P (1999) Housing decisions of young swedish adults. J Hous Econ 8(2):116–143

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

I am grateful to Thomas Lindh, Henry Ohlsson, Olle Westerlund, Matz Dahlberg, Rune Wigren, Jim Kemeny, and two anonymous referees for valuable guidance. I would also like to thank Sara Ström who have initiated and designed the dataset HOLK. Financial support from the Swedish National Insurance Board is also acknowledged.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden

    Cecilia Enström Öst

  2. Institute for Housing and Urban Studies and Department of Economics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden

    Cecilia Enström Öst

  3. Swedish Social Insurance Inspectorate, P.O. Box 202, 101 24, Stockholm, Sweden

    Cecilia Enström Öst

Authors
  1. Cecilia Enström Öst
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Cecilia Enström Öst.

Additional information

Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

(PDF 339 KB)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Öst, C.E. Housing and children: simultaneous decisions?—a cohort study of young adults’ housing and family formation decision. J Popul Econ 25, 349–366 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-010-0345-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-010-0345-5

Keywords

JEL Classification

Search

Navigation