Skip to main content
Log in

Estimation of individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for Japanese women

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Breast Cancer Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Background

Projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer is needed for counseling and chemoprevention for Japanese women, in whom breast cancer incidence has been rapidly increasing.

Methods

We calculated individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer within 10-20 years and until life expectancy for Japanese women by multiplying the relative risk for each risk factor combination by the cumulative risk for the reference group.

The risk factors used were age at menarche, age at first delivery, family history of breast cancer, and body mass index (BMI) (in post-menopausal women). The relative risk by menopausal status for each risk factor combination was estimated from a case control study conducted at Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases (OMCC), Japan. The cumulative risk of breast cancer for the reference group within 10-20 years and until life expectancy was estimated to divide the corresponding cumulative risk for Japanese women by the weighted average of the relative risk. The weight is an expected proportion of those who have each risk factor combination among the general population. The cumulative risk for Japanese women was estimated using a data file from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR).

Results

We obtained cumulative risks for any age women within a certain range according to various risk factor combinations by menopausal state. For example, the highest risk group had about a 5 times higher risk probability of developing breast cancer than the general population at initial age 40, within 10-20 years, and until life expectancy.

Conclusion

The cumulative risk of breast cancer varied according to individuals’ risk factors among Japanese women. The availability of concrete individualized risk estimation figures will be of use to health care providers in encouraging Japanese women to seek counseling and to adopt self-control of body weight as a primary preventive measure, as well as to have breast cancer screening.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Abbreviations

BMI:

Body Mass Index

OMCC:

Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases

OCR:

Osaka Cancer Registry

References

  1. The Research Group for Population-based Cancer Registration in Japan: Cancer incidence and incidence rates in Japan in 1996: estimates based on data from 10 population-based cancer registries.Jpn J Clin Oncol 31: 410–414, 2001.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Gail MH, Brinton LA, Byar DP,et al: Projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for white females who are being examined annually.J Natl Cancer Inst 81: 1879–1886, 1989.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Rockhill B, Spiegelman D, Byrne C,et al: Validation of the Gail et al. model of breast cancer risk prediction and implications for chemoprevention.J Natl Cancer Inst 93: 358–366, 2001.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Costantino JP, Gail MH, Pee D,et al: Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence.J Natl Cancer Inst 91: 1541–1548, 1999.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Bondy ML, Lustbader ED, Halabi S,et al: Validation of a breast cancer risk assessment model in women with a positive family history.J Natl Cancer Inst 86: 620–625, 1994.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Spiegelman D, Colditz GA, Hunter D,et al: Validation of the Gail et al. model for predicting individual breast cancer risk.J Natl Cancer Inst 86: 600–607, 1994.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Gail M, Rimer B: Risk-based recommendations for mammographic screening for women in their forties.J Clin Oncol 16: 3105–3114, 1998.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Benichou J, Gail MH, Mulvihill JJ: Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.J Clin Oncol 14: 103–110, 1996.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Tung HT, Tsukuma H, Tanaka H,et al: Risk factors for breast cancer in Japan, with special attention to anthropometric measurements and reproductive history.Jpn J Clin Oncol 29: 137–146, 1999.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Yuasa S, MacMahon B: Lactation and reproductive histories of breast cancer patients in Tokyo, Japan.Bull WHO 42: 195–201, 1970.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Hirohata T, Shigematsu T, Nomura AM,et al: Occurrence of breast cancer in relation to diet and reproductive history: a case-control study in Fukuoka, Japan.Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 69: 187–190, 1985.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Wakai K, Ohno Y, Watanabe S,et al: Risk factors for breast cancer among Japanese women in Tokyo: A case- control study.J Epidemiol 4: 65–71, 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Hirose K, Tajima K, Hamajima N,et al: A large-scale, hospital-based case-control study of risk factors of breast cancer according to menopausal status.Jpn J Cancer Res 86: 146–154, 1995.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Hamajima N, Hirose K, Inoue M,et al: Age specific risk factors of breast cancer estimated by a case-control study in Japan.J Epidemiol 5: 99–105, 1995.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Life expectancy. In Kokumineisei-no-doukou,Journal Health and Welfare Statistics 48 (suppl) p72, Health and Welfare Statistics Association, 2001.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Raymond L: Techniques of registration. Whelan SL, Young J: Classification and coding. Parkin DM, Shanmugaratnam K, Sobin L,et al: Histological groups. Parkin DM: Comparability and quality of data. Ferlay J: Processing of data. In: Parkin DM, Whelan SL, Ferlay J,et al. eds, Cancer incidence in five continents volume VH, IARC Sci Publ. No. 143, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, pp9–62, 1997.

  17. Day DE: Cumulative rate and cumulative risk. In: Waterhouse C, Muir C, Shanmugaratnam K,et al eds Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Volume IV, IARC Sci Publ No 42, pp443–445, 1982.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Nagata C, Kawakami N, Shimizu H: Trends in the incidence rate and risk factors for breast cancer in Japan.Breast Cancer Res Treat 44: 75–82, 1997.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Lerman C, Lustbader E, Rimer B,et al: Effects of individualized breast cancer risk counseling: a randomized trial.J Natl Cancer Inst 87: 286–292, 1995.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Black WC, Nease RF Jr, Tosteson AN: Perceptions of breast cancer risk and screening effectiveness in women younger than 50 years of age.J Natl Cancer Inst 87: 720–731, 1995.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Fisher B, Costantino JP, Wickerham DL,et al: Tamoxifen for prevention of breast cancer: report of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project P-1 Study.J Natl Cancer Inst 90: 1371–1388, 1998.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Fisher B, Costantino J, Redmond C,et al: A randomized clinical trial evaluating tamoxifen in the treatment of patients with node-negative breast cancer who have estrogen-receptor-positive tumors.N Engl J Med 320: 479–484, 1989.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Early Breast Cancer Trialists’ Collaborative Group. Tamoxifen for early breast cancer: an overview of the randomized trials.Lancet 351: 1451–1467, 1998.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Narod SA, Brunet JS, Ghadirian P,et al: Tamoxifen and risk of contralateral breast cancer in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers: a case-control study. Hereditary Breast Cancer Clinical Study Group.Lancet 356: 1876–1881, 2000.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. King MC, Wieand S, Hale K,et al: Tamoxifen and breast cancer incidence among women with inherited mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2: National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP-P1) Breast Cancer Prevention Trial.JAMA 286: 2251–2256, 2001.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Rutqvist LE, Cedermark B, Glas U,et al: Contralateral primary tumors in breast cancer patients in a randomized trial of adjuvant tamoxifen therapy.J Natl Cancer Inst 83: 1299–1306, 1991.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Fisher B, Redmond C: New perspective on cancer of the contralateral breast: a marker for assessing tamoxifen as a preventive agent.J Natl Cancer Inst 83: 1278–1280, 1991.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. Fisher B, Costantino JP, Redmond CK,et al: Endometrial cancer in tamoxifen-treated breast cancer patients: findings from the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) B-14.J Natl Cancer Inst 86: 527–537, 1994.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kimiko Ueda.

Additional information

Reprint requests to Kimiko Ueda, Department of Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases, 3-3 Nakamichi l-chome, Higashinari-ku, Osaka 537-8511, Japan.

About this article

Cite this article

Ueda, K., Tsukuma, H., Tanaka, H. et al. Estimation of individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for Japanese women. Breast Cancer 10, 54–62 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02967626

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02967626

Key words

Navigation