Abstract
Global climatic changes caused by growing concentrations of atmospheric trace gases have the potential to alter international relationships, economics, behavior, and security. While there is debate about the extent to which environmental problems alone can lead to conflict, it is widely acknowledged that resource constraints can act as roots leading to economic pressures and tensions, or as triggers to conflict when other pressures and tensions exist between states. Recent widespread attention to the issue of global environmental problems, particularly climatic change, is leading to a re-examination and expansion of the traditional narrow definition of “international security”. This paper discusses likely paths to international frictions and tensions and the responses that might be most appropriate to minimize the adverse consequences of climatic change for international security.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Antonov, V. S.: 1978, ‘The Possible Impact on the Arctic Ocean from the Proposed Transfer of Water from the Northern Rivers of the U.S.S.R. to the South’, Polar Geology 2, 223–231.
Bergesen, H. O., Moe, A., and Ostreng, W.: 1987, Soviet Oil and Security Interests in the Barents Sea, Frances Pinter, Publishers, London, England, 144 pp.
Bilder, R. B.: 1980, ‘International Law and Natural Resource Policies’, in Dorner, P. and M. A. El-Shafie (eds.), Resources and Development, The University of Wisconsin Press, Croom Helm, London, pp. 385–421.
British Petroleum (BP): 1987, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, British Petroleum Company, Britannic House, Moor Lane, London, 36 pp.
Budyko, M. I.: 1977, Climatic Changes, American Geophysical Union Translation, Waverly Press, Inc., Baltimore, Maryland, 261 pp.
Falkenmark, M.: 1986, ‘Fresh Waters as a Factor in Strategic Policy and Action’, in A. H. Westing (ed.), Global Resources and International Conflict: Environmental Factors in Strategic Policy and Action, Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 85–113.
Flaschka, I., Stockton, C. W., and Boggess, W. R.: 1987, ‘Climatic Variation and Surface Water Resources in the Great Basin’, Water Resources Bulletin 23. No. 1. pp. 47–57.
Garrett, J. N.: 1984, ‘Conventional Hydrocarbons in the United States Arctic: An Industry Appraisal’, in Westernmeyer, W. E. and K. M. Shusterich (eds.), United States Arctic Interests: The 1980s and 1990s, Springer-Verlag, Inc. New York, pp. 39–58.
Gleick, P. H.: 1988, ‘The Effects of Future Climatic Changes on International Water Resources: The Colorado River, The United States, and Mexico’, Policy Sciences 21, 23–39.
Gleick, P. H.: 1989, ‘Vulnerability of Water-Supply Systems’, in P. Waggoner and R. R. Revelle (eds.), Climate and Water: Climate Variability, Climate Change, and the Planning and Management of U.S. Water Resources, American Association for the Advancement of Sciences, John Wiley & Sons. New York (in press.)
Gustafson, T.: 1981, Reform in Soviet Politics: Lessons of Recent Policies on Land and Water, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 218 pp.
Mintzer, I. M.: 1987, A Matter of Degrees: The Potential for Controlling the Greenhouse Effect, World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C., 60 pp.
Mote, V. L.: 1983, ‘Environmental Constraints to the Economic Development of Siberia’, in Jensen, R. G., Shabad, T. and A. W. Wright (eds.), Soviet Natural Resources in the World Economy, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 15–71.
Naff, T. and Matson, R. C. (eds.): 1984, Water in the Middle East: Conflict or Cooperation, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 236 pp.
Pitovranov, S., Iakimets, V., Kiselev, V., and Sirotenko, O.: 1987, ‘The Effects of Climatic Variations on Agriculture in the SubArctic Zone of the USSR, in M.L. Parry, T. R. Carter, and N. T. Konijn (eds.), The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Volume 1. Assessments in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions, Kluwer Acad. Publ., Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 617–722.
Revelle, R. R. and Waggoner, P. E.: 1983, ‘Effects of a Carbon Dioxide-Induced Climatic Change on Water Supplies in the Western United States’, in Changing Climate, National Academy of Sciences National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 419–432.
Roberts, W. O. and Lansford, H.: 1979, The Climate Mandate, W. H. Freeman and Company, San Francisco, California, 197 pp.
Rotty, R. M: 1987a, ‘Estimates of Seasonal Variation in Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions’, Tellus 39B, 184–202.
Rotty, R. M.: 1987b, ‘A Look at 1983 CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (with Preliminary Data for 1984)’, Tellus 39B, 203–208.
Schneider, S. H.: 1983, ‘Food and Climate: Basic Issues and Some Policy Implications’, in V. P. Nanda (ed.), World Climate Change: The Role of International Law and Institutions, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, pp. 46–63.
Tickell, C.: 1986, Climatic Change and World Affairs, Revised edition. Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, University Press of America, Lanham, Maryland, 76 pp.
Ullman, R. H.: 1983, ‘Redefining Security’, International Security 8, 129–153.
United Nations: 1978, Register of International Rivers, Pergamon Press, Oxford, England, 58 pp.
Wallensteen, P.: 1986, ‘Food Crops as a Factor in Strategic Policy and Action’, in A. H. Westing (ed.), Global Resources and International Conflict: Environmental Factors in Strategic Policy and Action, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, United Nations Environment Programme, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 143–158.
Wilson, T. W. Jr.: 1983, ‘Global Climate, World Politics and National Security’, in Nanda, V. P. (ed.), World Climate Change: The Role of International Law and Institutions, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, pp. 71–78.
World Resources Institute: 1987, World Resources 1986, Basic Books, Inc., New York, 353 pp.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
This work was supported by a fellowship in International Peace and Security Studies from the Social Science Research Council/MacArthur Foundation Fellows Program. The author is presently the director of the Environment Program at the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security in Berkeley, California.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Gleick, P.H. The implications of global climatic changes for international security. Climatic Change 15, 309–325 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138857
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138857