Mitigation Measures and Preparedness Plans for Volcanic Emergencies

Abstract

It is vital for volcanologists to be concerned about the caliber of public preparedness for volcanic emergencies in regions of volcanic hazards for, of all people, they possess the knowledge, training, and experience by which they can recognize the existence and character of the hazards. Unless nearby volcanoes are frequently active within the span of human lifetimes, most inhabitants are likely to be unaware of the hazards, which can lead to excessive casualties and property losses if the volcano erupts and adequate preparations have not been made. Thus volcanologists need to promote awareness of the volcano and its potential hazard through education, most of which will likely be informal through meetings with officials, discussions with members of the news media, exhibits at museums, as well as talks and lectures to schools and service and social groups. People must learn essential facts about the types of eruptions that are possible and their consequences, the potential variations in the sizes and frequency of eruptions, and the differences in behavior among volcanoes. They must also understand that forecasting volcanic activity is inexact. Certain kinds of volcanic unrest often portend eruptions, but eruptions do not always follow, and prediction of the timing and size of eruptions is rarely achieved. Well-informed public officials and scientists should work together to develop appropriate preparedness plans. Volcanologists can utilize their volcanic-hazards assessments as a basis to help the officials develop plans to respond to the particular array of hazards offered by the subject volcano. Based on the results of monitoring, scientists can identify successive levels of unrest and determine at which level advisory statements should be increased to warnings. The response plans for warnings are generally developed by public officials, but in consultation with scientists to assure that measures will be compatible with expectable types of volcanic activity. The emergency management plans need to cover procedures for declaring an emergency, the logistics of evacuation, and arrangements for the care and welfare of the evacuees. In most countries the decision to evacuate is made by the public officials because the economic and social consequences are outside the expertise of volcanologists.