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The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces

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Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century

Part of the book series: Societies and Political Orders in Transition ((SOCPOT))

Abstract

This chapter offers an analysis of conditions in the MENA countries on the eve of the Arab Spring wave of revolutions from the World System perspective, as well as the causes (internal and external, general and specific) and certain consequences of this revolutionary wave, both in the MENA region and in the World System. The authors will discuss the Arab revolutions in a wide historical and theoretical context. Grinin and Korotayev show that it is very useful to compare the causes of revolutions in modern and previous epochs, in Arab and other countries, to find similarities and specific patterns. For example, in the Arab revolutions, a very important role was played by new information technologies. The revolutionary sentiments were especially fueled by the diffusion of radical ideas and ideologies in society, as well as by rapid urbanization, a growing youth share in the population, and the combination of rapidly increasing education levels for part of population with very poor education for others. These rapid, unregulated changes, and increasing structural disproportions, may bring a society to a modernization trap that often causes revolutions and other political upheavals. All these phenomena were present in the Arab countries on the eve of the Arab Spring, especially in Egypt and Tunisia.

This chapter is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at HSE University in 2022 with support by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 18-18-00254).

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Notes

  1. 1.

    On the revolutionary events in the MENA region in the 1950s–1990s see Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022, in this volume).

  2. 2.

    For more detail see Chapters “The Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and the Birth of the Arab Spring Uprisings” (Kuznetsov, 2022), “Egypt’s 2011 Revolution. A Demographic Structural Analysis” (Korotayev & Zinkina, 2022), “The Syrian Revolution” (Akhmedov, 2022), “Revolution in Libya” (Barmin, 2022), and “The Arab Spring in Yemen” (Issaev et al., 2022) in this volume.

  3. 3.

    See, e.g., Goldstone (2011a, 2011b), Beck (2011), Grinin and Korotayev (2011, 2012a, 2012b), Brynen et al. (2012), Weyland (2012), Holmes (2012), Howard and Hussain (2013), Wilson (2013), Korotayev et al. (2013, 2014), Lang and Sterck (2014), Beissinger et al. (2015), Sumiala and Korpiola (2017) etc.; see also Chapter “Introduction. Changing yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events” (Goldstone et al., 2022b, in this volume).

  4. 4.

    Of course, this is an exaggeration, especially in relation to countries such as Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, etc. This shows the level of understanding of Islamic countries, as well as Islamist movements on the part of the media.

  5. 5.

    Some of the abovementioned works (see especially Lawson, 2015) regard the Arab Spring revolutions as a wave of revolutions. In this chapter we do not concentrate on this aspect, because we analyze character, causes and particularities of this revolutionary wave in Chapters “Introduction. Changing yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events” (Goldstone et al., 2022b), “On Revolutionary Waves Since the Sixteenth Century” (Grinin, 2022f), and “Revolutions of the 21st Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022e) in this volume.

  6. 6.

    See also Chapters “On Theories and Phenomenon of Revolution” (Goldstone et al., 2022c) and “On Revolutionary Situations, Stages of Revolution, and Some Other Aspects of the Theory of Revolution” (Grinin, 2022b) in this volume.

  7. 7.

    See in particular Chapters “Introduction. Changing yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events” (Goldstone et al., 2022b) and “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolution” (Goldstone et al., 2022c) in this book.

  8. 8.

    See Chapters “On Theories and Phenomenon of Revolution” (Goldstone et al., 2022c), “Conclusion. Why have so Many Revolutions Occurred in Recent Years, and are They Likely to Continue to Occur in the Future?” (Goldstone et al., 2022a), “On revolutionary situations, stages of revolution, and some other aspects of the theory of revolution” (Grinin, 2022b), “Revolutions of the 21st Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022e), and “The ‘Color’ Revolutions. Successes and limitations of Non-violent Protest” (Mitchell, 2022) in this volume.

  9. 9.

    See, e.g., Grinin and Korotayev (2012a). On the connection between modernization [even when it proceeds successfully) and revolution see Chapters “Revolutions and Historical Process” (Grinin, 2022), “Revolution and Modernization Traps” (Grinin, 2022d), and “The European Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves of the Nineteenth Century: Their Causes and Consequences” (Grinin, 2022g) in this volume; see also Grinin 2011, 2012b, 2013a, 2013b, 2014, 2017a, 2017b, 2018a, 2018b, 2018c, 2019b; Korotayev, 2014; Korotayev et al., 2011, 2014, 2020, 2021].

  10. 10.

    About the correlation between revolutions and democracy see Chapters “Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2022) and “Conclusion. Why have so Many Revolutions Occurred in Recent Years, and are They Likely to Continue to Occur in the Future?” (Goldstone et al., 2022a) in this book.

  11. 11.

    For example, Ali Abdullah Saleh was in power in Yemen for 34 years; Hosni Mubarak in Egypt was for 30 years, Muammar al-Qaddafi in Libya was for 42 years, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia was for 24 years.

  12. 12.

    Incidentally, in most modern revolutions (with the exception, perhaps, of some revolutions led by communist, ultra-right, or radical Islamist leaders), the demand for freedom and democracy occupies an important, if not the most important, place. And even during the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1978–1979 at least part of the revolutionary forces opposed the authoritarian monarchy and fought for freedom and democracy. For detail on the Iranian revolution see Chapters "Two instances of Islamic “revival”: The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the formation of the “Islamic State” in Syria and Iraq in the 2010s” (Filin et al., 2022a) and “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022) in this book.

  13. 13.

    This is just by definition, as otherwise such regimes would be classified as democratic.

  14. 14.

    We can see very obvious cases when impressions that elections were rigged triggered revolutions. See Chapters “The ‘Color’ Revolutions. Successes and Limitations of Non-violent Protest” (Mitchell, 2022), “The Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia” (Khodunov, 2022a), “The Rose Revolution in Georgia” (Khodunov, 2022), “The Orange Revolution in Ukraine” (Khodunov, 2022b), “Serbian ‘Otpor’ and the Color Revolutions’ Diffusion” (Filin et al., 2022b), and “Color Revolutions in Kyrgyzstan” (Ivanov, 2022) in this book.

  15. 15.

    See Chapters “Evolution and Typology of Revolutions” (Grinin, 2022a), “On Revolutionary Situations, Stages of Revolution, and Some Other Aspects of the Theory of Revolution” (Grinin, 2022b), “Revolutions and Historical Process” (Grinin, 2022c), “Revolutions of the 21st Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022e), and “The ‘Color’ Revolutions. Successes and Limitations of Non-violent Protest” (Mitchell, 2022) in this book; see also, e.g., Grinin et al. (2016).

  16. 16.

    However, even in Yemen one could not observe any substantial trend of declining living standards in the pre-Arab-Spring period; Hence, even with respect to Yemen‚ such an explanation does not look convincing at all.

  17. 17.

    To understand how false is the fashionable interpretation of the Arab Spring as “a revolution of the hungry”, it appears appropriate to mention that the percentage of obesity among the Egyptians by the start of the Arab Spring was one of the highest in the world (e.g., Korotayev & Zinkina, 2011a, 2011b; Martorell et al., 2000). According to Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey (conducted in 2008), 40% of Egyptian women and 18% of men were overweight because of overeating (Egypt Ministry of Health et al., 2009). According to a bit more recent data, these figures equal 22% for males and 48% for females just by the beginning of the protests under a hypocritical slogan “Bread, Freedom, Social Justice!” (Badran & Laher, 2011: 3). And in January 2011 it was difficult to find in the world a population better provided with the bread than the population of Egypt (Korotayev & Zinkina, 2011a, 2011b). If anything, the Egyptian 2011 revolution was “a revolution of the fat”. As we have shown earlier, by 2011 a substantial proportion of Egyptians continued getting food subsidies from the government while suffering serious obesity problems (Korotayev & Zinkina, 2011a, 2011b; see also Grinin, 2012a; Korotayev & Zinkina, 2015: 413).

  18. 18.

    See Chapters “The ‘Color’ Revolutions. Successes and Limitations of Non-violent Protest” (Mitchell, 2022), “The Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia” (Khodunov, 2022a), “The Rose Revolution in Georgia” (Khodunov, 2022c), “The Orange Revolution in Ukraine” (Khodunov, 2022b), and “Color Revolutions in Kyrgyzstan” (Ivanov, 2022) in this book.

  19. 19.

    See Chapter “Serbian ‘Otpor’ and the Color Revolutions’ Diffusion” (Filin et al., 2022b) in this book.

  20. 20.

    This point as well as the next one creates an affinity between the Arab revolutions, on the one hand, and Moldavian and Iranian events in 2009, on the other. See Chapters “‘Moldovan Spring’ 2009: The Atypical ‘Revolution’ of April 7 and the Days that Followed” (Tkachuk et al., 2022) and “The Green Movement in Iran: 2009–2010” (Filin, 2022) in this book.

  21. 21.

    On this factor in general and its manifestation during the Arab Spring see Grinin (2019a), Grinin and Korotayev (2019a, 2019b, 2019c, 2020b) and Grinin et al. (2019).

  22. 22.

    In complete accordance with the demographic transition theory the decline of the birth rates in the Arab world lagged significantly behind the decline of the death rates (see, e.g., Korotayev & Zinkina, 2011a, 2011b).

  23. 23.

    On the role of information technologies in revolutions see Chapters “On Revolutionary Situations, Stages of Revolution, and Some Other Aspects of the Theory of Revolution” (Grinin, 2022b) and Evolution and Typology of Revolutions” (Grinin, 2022a) in this book; see also Akaev et al. (2017).

  24. 24.

    See, e.g., Beck (2011), Eltantawy and Wiest (2011), Khondker (2011), Johnstone and Mazo (2011), Korotayev and Zinkina (2011a, 2011b, 2011c, 2011d), Tausch (2011), Vasiliev (2011), Grinin (2012a), Akaev et al. (2012, 2017), Khodunov and Korotayev (2012), Schroeder et al. (2012), Howard and Hussain (2013), Sultan (2013), Wolfsfeld et al. (2013); Ferragina and Canitano (2014), AlSayyad and Guvenc (2015), Demarest (2015), Grinin et al. (2016), Grinin and Korotayev (2012b, 2016a), Hänska Ahy (2016), Steinert-Threlkeld (2017), Cherribi (2017) and Ortmans et al. (2017).

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. HSE University, Moscow, Russia

    Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev

  2. Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev

  3. Faculty of Global Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

Authors
  1. Leonid Grinin
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  2. Andrey Korotayev
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Scholar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University, Arlington, VA, USA

    Jack A. Goldstone

  2. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

    Leonid Grinin

  3. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

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Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (2022). The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces. In: Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_23

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