Abstract
THE global warming potential (GWP) index1–3 is a measure of the relative contribution of the emissions of different greenhouse gases to the radiative forcing of the atmosphere—and thus to climate change—over a given time period. But this index does not represent the effects of climate change, and therefore does not provide an adequate basis for policy decisions about emissions reductions. This inadequacy has led to the proposal of an alternative, the economic-damage index (EDI)4–7. This index compares the effect of different greenhouse-gas emissions on global economic welfare. Here we use a simple climate model to calculate the EDIs for a range of climate-change/greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, and compare the values to the corresponding GWPs. Although the values of these indices are, at this stage, broadly similar in both magnitude and uncertainty, the prospects of reducing these uncertainties by future research are better for the EDI.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Shine, K. P., Derwent, R. G., Wuebbles, D. J. & Morcrette, J.-J. in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephraums, J. J.) 41–68 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).
Isaksen, I. S. A., Ramaswamy, V., Rodhe, H. & Wigley, T. M. L. in Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A. & Vamey, S. K.) 47–67 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992).
Albritton, D. L., Derwent, R. G., Isaksen, I. S. A., Lal, M. & Wuebbles, D. J. in Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) 205–231 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1995).
Eckaus, R. S. Energy J. 13, 25–35 (1992).
Reilly, J. M. & Richards, K. R. Envir. Resourc. Econ. 3, 41–61 (1993).
Schmalensee, R. Energy J. 14, 245–255 (1993).
Kandlikar, M. Energy Policy 23, 879–883 (1995).
Cropper, M. L. & Oates, W. E. J. econ. Literat. 30, 675–740 (1992).
Victor, D. G. Policy Sci. 24, 199–222 (1991).
Lashof, D. A. & Ahuja, D. R. Nature 344, 529–531 (1990).
Hammitt, J. K., Lempert, R. J. & Schlesinger, M. E. Nature 357, 315–318 (1992).
Wuebbles, D. J., Jain, A. K., Patten, K. O. & Grant, K. E. Clim. Change 29, 265–297 (1995).
Nordhaus, W. D. Science 258, 1315–1319 (1992).
Peck, S. C. & Teisberg, T. J. Energy J. 13, 55–77 (1992).
Manne, A., Mendelsohn, R. & Richels, R. Energy Policy 23, 17–34 (1995).
Leggett, J., Pepper, W. & Swart, R. in Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A. & Vamey, S. K.) 69–95 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992).
Mitchell, J. F. B., Manabe, S., Meleshko, V. & Tokioka, T. in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephaums, J. J.) 131–172 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).
Gates, W. L., Mitchell, J. F. B., Boer, G. J., Cubash, U. & Meleshko, V. P. in Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A. & Vamey, S. K.) 97–134 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992).
Jain, A. K., Kheshgi, H. S. & Wuebbles, D. J. Integrated Science Model for Assessment of Climate Change (UCRL-JC 116526; Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore, CA, 1994).
Jain, A. K., Kheshgi, H. S., Hoffert, M. I. & Wuebbles, D. J. Global biogeochem. Cycles 9, 153–166 (1995).
Schimel, D. S. et al. in Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) 35–71 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1995).
Enting, I. G., Wigley, T. M. L. & Heimann, M. Future Emissions and Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide: Key Ocean/Atmosphere/Land Analyses (Division of Atmospheric Res., CSIRO, Australia, 1995).
Bacastow, R. & Keeling, C. D. in Carbon in the Biosphere (eds Woodwell, G. M. & Pecan, E. V.) 86–135 (NTIS, Springfield, Virginia, 1973).
Bretherton, F. P., Bryan, K. & Woods, J. D. in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephaums, J. J.) 173–193 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).
Schlesinger, M. E. & Jiang, X. Nature 350, 219–221 (1991).
Peck, S. C. & Teisberg, T. J. Clim. Change 28, 289–315 (1994).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hammitt, J., Jain, A., Adams, J. et al. A welfare-based index for assessing environmental effects of greenhouse-gas emissions. Nature 381, 301–303 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1038/381301a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/381301a0
This article is cited by
-
The social cost of methane
Climatic Change (2023)
-
Consequences of equivalency metric design for energy transitions and climate change
Climatic Change (2022)
-
Atmospheric oxidation of HFE-7300 [n-C2F5CF(OCH3)CF(CF3)2] initiated by •OH/Cl oxidants and subsequent degradation of its product radical: a DFT approach
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2020)
-
A theoretical basis for the equivalence between physical and economic climate metrics and implications for the choice of Global Warming Potential time horizon
Climatic Change (2020)
-
Cumulative environmental and employment impacts of the shale gas boom
Nature Sustainability (2019)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.
