Abstract
Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
DIN 4149: 1981, Buildings in German earthquake areas, design loads, analysis and structural design; usual buildings. Normenausschuß im Bauwesen (NABau) im DIN Deutsches Institut für Normung e.V., April 1981, Berlin.
DIN 4149: 2005, Buildings in German earthquake areas – Design loads, analysis and structural design of buildings. Normenausschuß im Bauwesen (NABau) im DIN Deutsches Institut für Normung e.V., April 2005, Berlin.
D. Fäh E. Rüttener T. Noack P. Kruspan (1997) ArticleTitleMicrozonation of the city of Basel J. Seismol. 1 87–102 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1009774423900
D. Fäh F. Kind K. Lang D. Giardini (2001) ArticleTitleEarthquake Scenarios for the city of Basel Soil Dynam. Earthq. Eng. 21 405–413
Grünthal, G. (ed.), Musson, R., Schwarz, J., and Stucchi, M.: 1998a, European Macroseismic Scale 1998, Cahiers du Centre Européen de Geodynamique et de Seismologie, Vol. 15, Luxembourg
Grünthal, G., Mayer-Rosa, D., and Lenhardt, W.: 1998b, Abschätzung der Erdbeben-gefährdung für die D-A-CH-Staaten – Deutschland, Österreich, Schweiz, Bautechnik 75(10), 753–767
Grünthal, G., and Schwarz, J.: 2000, Hazard-consistent description of seismic action for a new generation of seismic codes, a case study considering low seismicity regions of Central Europe, Proc. 12th World Conference Earthquake Engineering, Auckland, New Zealand, Paper No 443, 8 p.
G. Grünthal R. Wahlström (2006) ArticleTitleNew Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data Nat. Hazards 38 159–176
S. A. King A. S. Kiremidjian N. Basöz (1997) ArticleTitleMethodologies for evaluating the socio-economic consequences of large earthquakes Earthq. Spectra 13 IssueID4 565–584
King, S.A., and Rojahn, C.: 1998, Performance of buildings near strong-motion recording sites in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, Proc. 11th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Paris, Bisch, Ph., Labbe, P., Pecker, A. (eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Brookfield, Paper No 66, 12 p.
Lang, D.H., and Schwarz, J.: 2000, A comparison of site response estimation techniques: Case studies in earthquake-affected areas, Proc. 6th International Conference on Seismic Zonation, Palm Springs, USA, 6 p.
Raschke, M.: 2003, Die Korrelation zwischen Erdbebenstärke und Bauwerksschaden und deren Anwendung in der Risikoanalyse, PhD Thesis, Bauhaus-Universität Weimar.
Sabetta, F., Goretta, A., and Lucantoni, A.: 1998, Empirical fragility curves from damage surveys and estimated strong ground motion. Proc. 11th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Paris, Bisch, Ph., Labbe, P., Pecker, A. (eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Brookfield, Paper No 499, 11 p.
Schwarz, J., and Grünthal, G.: 1994, The European Macroseismic Intensity Scale EMS-92 and its engineering aspects. Proc. 10th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 1, pp. 29–35.
Schwarz, J., Lang, D. H., Raschke, M. et al.: 2000, Lessons from recent earthquakes – field missions of German Task Force, Proc. 12th World Conference Earthquake Engineering, Auckland, New Zealand, 2000, Paper No 1349, 8 p.
Schwarz, J., Raschke, M., and Maiwald, H.: 2001a, Methodische Grundlagen der seismischen Risikokartierung am Beispiel der Stadt Schmölln/ Ostthüringen (1): Erfassung und Bewertung des Bauwerksbestandes, Thesis – Wiss. Zeitschrift der Bauhaus-Universität Weimar 47 (1/2). Ingenieurseismologie und Erdbebeningenieurwesen, pp. 180–199.
Schwarz, J., Raschke, M., and Maiwald, H.: 2001b, Methodische Grundlagen der seismischen Risikokartierung am Beispiel der Stadt Schmölln/ Ostthüringen (2): Modellereignisse, lokale Verstärkungseffekte und Schadensszenarien, Thesis – Wiss. Zeitschrift der Bauhaus-Universität Weimar 47 (1/2). Ingenieurseismologie und Erdbebeningenieurwesen, pp. 200–219.
Schwarz, J., Raschke, M., and Maiwald, H.: 2002, Seismic Risk Studies for Central Germany on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98, Proc. 12th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Elsevier Science Ltd., Paper Reference 295, 10 p.
Schwarz, J., Raschke, M., and Gerstberger, A.: 2003, Seismische Schadenspotentiale in deutschen Großstadträumen – Fallstudie Köln, In: Meskouris, K., Hinzen, K.-G. (eds.) DGEB-Publikation Nr. 11, Schutz von Bauten gegen natürliche und technische Erschütterungen, pp. 69–83.
Schwarz, J., Langhammer, T., Maiwald, H., and Smolka, A.: 2004, Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions - Damage and Loss Assessment for the City of Cologne. Proc. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Canadian Association for Earthquake Engineering, Paper No. 238, 15 p.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Schwarz, J., Raschke, M. & Maiwald, H. Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98. Nat Hazards 38, 259–282 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8638-9
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8638-9