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Predictability and Suppression of Extreme Events in a Chaotic System

Hugo L. D. de S. Cavalcante, Marcos Oriá, Didier Sornette, Edward Ott, and Daniel J. Gauthier
Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 198701 – Published 4 November 2013
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Abstract

In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme events. The mechanism responsible for the rare, largest events makes them distinct, and their distribution deviates from a power law. On the basis of this mechanism identification, we show that it is possible to forecast in real time an impending extreme event. Once forecasted, we also show that extreme events can be suppressed by applying tiny perturbations to the system.

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  • Received 31 December 2012

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.198701

© 2013 American Physical Society

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How to Control Your Dragons

Published 4 November 2013

A class of coupled oscillators for which extreme events, called dragon kings, can be both predicted and mitigated provides insights into the control of complex systems.

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Authors & Affiliations

Hugo L. D. de S. Cavalcante* and Marcos Oriá

  • Grupo de Física Atômica e Lasers-DF, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, Caixa Postal 5086, 58051-900 João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil

Didier Sornette

  • ETH Zurich, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Scheuchzerstrasse 7, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

Edward Ott

  • Institute for Research in Electronics and Applied Physics, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA

Daniel J. Gauthier

  • Department of Physics, Duke University, Box 90305, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA

  • *To whom correspondence should be addressed. hugo.cavalcante@pq.cnpq.br Present address: Departamento de Informática, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, CEP 58051-900, João Pessoa, PB, Brazil.

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Issue

Vol. 111, Iss. 19 — 8 November 2013

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