Abstract
In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme events. The mechanism responsible for the rare, largest events makes them distinct, and their distribution deviates from a power law. On the basis of this mechanism identification, we show that it is possible to forecast in real time an impending extreme event. Once forecasted, we also show that extreme events can be suppressed by applying tiny perturbations to the system.
- Received 31 December 2012
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.198701
© 2013 American Physical Society
Viewpoint
How to Control Your Dragons
Published 4 November 2013
A class of coupled oscillators for which extreme events, called dragon kings, can be both predicted and mitigated provides insights into the control of complex systems.
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