Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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A Comparison of Drought Prospection by Future Climate Models

미래기후예측모형에 따른 가뭄전망 결과 비교

  • Kim, Jungho (College of Engineering, Colorado State University) ;
  • Kim, Sangdan (Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Park, Moojong (Department of Civil Engineering, Hanseo University) ;
  • Joo, Jingul (Department of Civil Engineering, Dongshin University)
  • 김정호 (콜로라도주립대학교 공과대학) ;
  • 김상단 (부경대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 박무종 (한서대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 주진걸 (동신대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2016.03.16
  • Accepted : 2016.03.21
  • Published : 2016.04.30
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Abstract

This study compared the characteristics of drought occurrence projections of five regional climate models. For this purpose, RCP 8.5 scenario daily precipitation data from Climate Change Information Center are used. Standard precipitation index calculable only with daily precipitation was used to project the drought occurrence characteristics. As a result, we found that the similarity of RegCM4 and SNURCM was the most similar case, however, the case of WRF had drought occurrence characteristics different from the other four models. On the other hand, spatial distribution results showed that regional climate models have large difference in extremely drought events, each other.

수자원 활용 계획을 위하여 기후변화에 따른 가뭄의 예측은 매우 중요한 문제이다. 현재까지 RCP 기반의 5개의 지역기후모형(HadGEM3-RA, RegCMv4, SNUMM5v3, GRIMs, WRFv34)이 제시되어 있으며, 각 모형들은 한반도에서의 미래 기후를 다르게 예측하고 있는 것으로 알려지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 5개 지역기후모형을 사용하여 한반도에서의 미래 가뭄을 표준가뭄지수(SPI)를 사용하여 예측하고, 각 모형의 결과를 상호 비교하였다. 가뭄 발생시점, 발생횟수, 가뭄 등급을 비교한 결과 5개 모형 중 WRF 모형에 의한 가뭄 예측이 가장 상이한 결과를 주는 것으로 나타났다. 가뭄의 공간분포는 5개 모형 모두 비슷하게 예측하였으나, SPI -2 이하의 극한가뭄 예측은 모형별로 50%이상 차이가 발생하였다. 본 연구 결과는 미래 가뭄 예측을 통한 정책수립 등에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Grant : 기후변화 적응을 위한 연안도시지역별 복합원인의 홍수 취약성평가기술 개발 및 대응 방안 연구

Supported by : 국민안전처

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