中國對中美經貿對抗的立場

有別於多數研究「中美貿易戰」的文獻，本文透過python撰寫程式碼以電腦輔助人工進行內容分析的方式處理106萬字的人民日報文本資料，並以自行設計的量化系統分析「人民日報的報導趨勢，藉此了解中國對中美經貿對抗的立場。本研究發現，人民日報中「與貿易戰相關的文章內容」除了體現中國對貿易戰的立場，其文章發佈頻率也反映了貿易戰的情勢走向，當中美雙方緊張情勢升溫則文章發佈數量顯著提升。在面對中美經貿對抗的宏觀立場上，中國一貫維持「不願打，不怕打，必要時不得不打」的被動立場，並極欲想與美方談和。在回應中美經貿問題的立場上，中國對於無法達成雙方共識的經貿問題 (例如關稅問題) ，在人民日報上會主要以「負面情緒指責美國」做論述，且該議題無法達成雙方共識。中國若有意改善經貿問題 (例如知識產權保護、避免匯率操縱、外資開放等) ，在人民日報上會主要以「正面情緒論述中國過去做的努力」，且該議題最終能達成雙方共識。最後，本文也透過上述研究成果建立一套參考指標，以便能藉此指標掌握中國的立場及中美經貿關係的未來動向。

關鍵字

中美貿易戰；中國立場研究；文本情緒分析；文字探勘

並列摘要

The researches on the "China-US Trade War" are dominated by qualitative studies. In contrast, the thesis uses Python to code the contents of 1.06 million words of the People's Daily text data. It then analyzes the "contents" with quantitative system of my own design. “Reporting Trends” from this content analysis illustrate China’s nuanced position on Sino-American economic and trade rivalry. This thesis finds that People’s Daily’s publication frequency of relevant articles reflects the trend of the trade war. The number of articles published dovetails with the tensions between China and the United States. In general, the thesis shows that China has maintained a passive position of "unwilling to fight, not afraid of fighting, and willing to fight if necessary." This policy status is reflected in China’s positions on various trade issues --- sometimes soft, sometimes hardnosed. Finally, this thesis suggests that researches on US-China rivalry along the line of computer assisted quantitative methods be a worthwhile effort.