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  • 學位論文

台灣股票指數在不同結算制度中的到期日效應

Maturity-Day Effect of Taiwan Stock Index in Different Settlement Systems

指導教授 : 邱建良
共同指導教授 : 黃健銘(Chien-Ming Huang)

摘要


本研究主要的目的在探討台灣指數期貨到期效應的變化,文中我們進一步考慮了台灣過去主管機關為求降低期貨市場市場到期前的異常現象,因此2008年11月21日進行了結算制度的改革,為了增加市場流動性現貨市場在2016年6月1日放寬了漲跌幅限制到10%,因此這兩個制度的改革是否會產生抵換作用是過去文獻中尚未探討的部分,為了要檢測這個問題,本論文採由的ARJI-TRAND模型進行檢測,可有效捕捉異常跳躍行為和波動性,樣本期間是2007年7月2日至2019年5月17日,收集相關市場成交量與收盤指數進行檢測,經過資料整理之後全樣本期間共有143個期貨契約。 實證結果顯示,在樣本期間內,且在到期日前五天,期貨市場具有顯著異常負報酬 制度改革之後 在到期前五天確實也產生顯著的負向影響,當股市放寬到10%時,也呈現相同的結果,此外,本研究進步觀察兩者的交互效果,當全樣本的估計,機構法人的成交量與期貨報酬呈現正相關,當市場經過制度改革與放寬漲跌幅限制之後,機構法人的成交量對於期貨市場的報酬影響是縮減的,影響係數確實有明顯縮減,代表在放寬漲跌幅限制之後,機構法人的成交狀態確實對於期貨市場的影響有明顯的縮減。此外在期貨市場的成交量再到期前五天,具有顯著負向的影響,但是卻在之後轉為正向影響,我們可以得知政府放寬漲跌幅限制之後,對於機構法人與期貨市場的異常交易量,具有顯著性的減緩,有助於資訊投資人減緩對於市場異常現象的干擾,本研究也建議對於未來的市場機制,我們應該隨著市場變化而進行調整,以活絡市場以健全市場的發展。

並列摘要


The objective of this paper is to study the changes in the expiration-day effect of Taiwan index futures. In order to alleviate the anomalies before the maturity of the futures market and increase the liquidity of the spot market, the Taiwan Stock Exchange set its daily price fluctuation limits release to 10% on November 21, 2008 and June 1, 2016. In the past literatures, they have not been discussed whether the reform of these two policies have a trade-off on the expiration-day effect. Therefore, this paper uses the ARJI-TRAND model and collects relevant market volume and closing index for testing. The sample period is from July 2, 2007 to May 17, 2019. After the data is sorted, there are 143 futures contracts in the whole sample period. The results of this paper show that the futures market has significant abnormal negative returns during the sample period and five days before the expiration date, and the policy reform has a significant negative impact five days before the expiration. There have the same result when the stock market is release to 10%. In addition, this paper further observes the interaction. The institutional legal person transaction volume and the futures remuneration are positively correlated. When the market undergoes institutional reform and relaxation of the price limit, the impact of the institutional legal person's transaction volume on the futures market remuneration is reduced. After the relaxation of the price limit, the institutional legal person's transaction status has indeed reduced significantly the impact on the futures market. In addition, the trading volume of the futures market turned negatively from the negative impact to the positive impact five days before the expiration. Therefore, after the government releases the price limit, the impact of the institutional legal person on the maturity effect of the futures market was significantly slowed down. It helps information investors to slow down the interference of market anomalies. This paper also suggests that the future market mechanism should be adjusted as the market changes to activate the market to improve the market.

參考文獻


Alkeback, P. and Hagelin N., (2004), “Expiration Day Effects of Index Futures and Options: Evidence from A Market with A Long Settlement Period”, Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 14, pp. 385-396.
Chiou, S. H., (2009), “Maturity Effects on Index’s Future Exchange–Evidences from Eastern Asian Markets”, Vol. 48, pp. 609-620.
Chow, et al.,(2013), “Expiration Day Effects and Market Manipulation: Evidence from Taiwan”, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Vol. 41, pp. 441–462.
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