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  • 學位論文

中國大陸股市波動分析

Analysis of the Fluctuation in China’s Stock Market

指導教授 : 李志強
共同指導教授 : 蔡青蓉(Cing-Rong Cai)

摘要


中國股市從1990年代開始逐步發展,其發展的歷程依據不同的發展特點可以分成六個階段,分別是第一萌芽與初步發展階段、第二快速發展與逐步成熟階段、第三轉型階段、第四股權分置改革階段、第五滬、深港通開放階段和第六金融安全與核心發展階段。另外,在這個發展的過程中,為了因應不同時期的金融環境,中國股市也不斷的改革與創新,例如發展QFII、QDII與RQFII制度以及滬、深港通的開放,都為中國股市帶來新的轉變。 綜觀中國股市將近30年的發展,觀察其股市發展的脈絡可以發現,股市的變化中有兩起異常波動是非常引人矚目的,分別就是2007年的股市波動,以及2015年的股市波動。因此本研究為了了解兩次股市波動的異同之處,分別從經濟、貨幣政策和股市制度三個面向來做比較與分析,最後分別對兩者的特點以及其彼此之間的異同作出結論。

並列摘要


The stock market in China has developed gradually since the 1990s; it is divided into six phases based on the characteristics of the development path. The first is the sprouting and initial phase and the second phase is about the rapid development and maturation. Further, the third phase is the transformation and the fourth phase is the split-share structure reform. Finally, the fifth phase is about the open stage of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect while the sixth phase is the developing stage of financial security and the core technology. Additionally, in response to the financial environment in each phase, the Chinese stock market has been reforming and innovating constantly. For example, to develop the systems of Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII), Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII), and RMB (Renminbi) Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII), as well as to open the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, all of these have brought new changes to the market. Take an overview of the Chinese stock market in recent three decades, through observing the context of the stock development, it has occurred abnormal volatility twice, which is the volatility in 2007 and 2015. The study aims to understand the similarities and differences of the aforementioned volatility and conducts a comparison and analysis from the perspectives of economy, monetary policy, and stock system; as a result, generates a conclusion regarding the similarities and differences of the volatility.

參考文獻


一、書籍
1.王玉民,《社會科學研究方法原理》,(台北市:紅葉文化,1994年)。
2.江濤,《看不懂的中國股市》,(台北市:高寶國際出版;希代多媒體發行,2009年)。
3.周密,《中國股市,魚來了》,(台北市:恆兆文化,2005年)。
4.計弘仁,《開啟中國證券市場大門》,(台北市:聯經,2006年)。

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