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  • 學位論文

中國大陸劃設東海防空識別區對東亞區域安全之影響

The Impact of Mainland China's East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone On the Security of East Asia

指導教授 : 黃介正

摘要


東亞地區自「八二三砲戰」後迄今,穩定發展了近40年,造就了高成長的經濟動能。中國大陸順勢掌握契機,綜合國力不斷提升,美國與中國大陸新型大國關係儼然成形,中國大陸在追求世界大國地位的同時,構建世界一流的軍事力量、經濟能力及維護領土之完整,更是重中之重。而自2012年日本將釣魚臺「國有化」後,中國大陸於2013年劃定東海防空識別區,此舉牽動著中國大陸、美、日、韓、臺等地區。由於中國大陸與日本擁有深遠的文化淵源及複雜的歷史傷痛;而中國大陸與美國間的權力轉移,使得東亞區域安全看似乎岌岌可危。 美國作為世界權力分配的主宰者,倘若能抑制潛在霸權的形成,或以國際規範來圭臬現狀,不僅是符合美國的國家利益,亦是維持坐穩世界強權的核心。若因東海防空識別區的劃設而與中國大陸大動干戈,並非符合美、中雙方利益;而中日發生衝突的機率遠比中美發生衝突的機率高。研究發現日本自從2012年釣魚臺宣布國有化後,中國大陸於2013年以無預警的劃設東海防空識別區,自此之後中國大陸常態派出航空器與船舶在其劃設之識別區內實施例行性的巡航,使日本承受了不小的壓力,中日的關係更是盪到谷底。日本也因應中國大陸領空(防空識別區)侵犯逐年調高防衛防預算來防範中國大陸帶來的威脅。 由於中國大陸近年致力於經濟發展,且與美國、日本存在著相互依存的經濟利益,故僅能藉由東海周邊海空域的博弈行為,驅使日本回到「擱置爭議、共同開發、利益互惠」的可能。2018年是中日和平友好條約締約四十周年紀念,中國大陸也在2017年調降了東海防空識別區巡弋頻次;中日本關係自2012年因釣魚臺「國有化」後探至冰點,於2017年雙方釋出善意,使得冷凍的關係逐漸升溫,在2018年終於盼到春天的氣息。故本研究針對東海防空識別區劃定所引發的區域緊張,並非造成東亞區域安全危機;而東海防空識別區之劃定也非引爆美、中、日三方的武裝衝突的導火線,因為三方損失的將是無法估計的龐大國家利益。

並列摘要


Since the " August 23rd Artillery Battle in 1958 " East Asia, it has developed steadily for nearly 40 years, creating a high-growth economic momentum. Mainland China has seized the opportunity and has sharpened the overall national strength.The relationship between the United States and China's new power has taken shape. China's pursuit of the status of a world power while building world-class military power, economic capabilities and maintaining the integrity of the territory is the prior concern for the country.Since the "nationalization" of Diaoyutai in Japan in 2012, the Mainland China has demarcated the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone in 2013, which has affected China, the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. East Asian regional security seem precarious, for one thing, Mainland China and Japan have far-reaching cultural origins and complex historical pains; for another, the transfer of power between China and the United States. As the master of the world's power center, the United States, if it can suppress the formation of potential hegemony, or use the international norms to understand the status quo, is not only in line with the national interests of the United States, but also the core of maintaining a stable world power. If the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone is designed to make a big move with the Mainland China, it is not in the interests of both the United States and China. The probability of conflict between China and Japan is far higher than the probability of conflict between China and the United States. The study found that since the Nationalization of Diaoyutai was announced in Japan in 2012, Mainland China has designated the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone in 2013 without prior warning. Since then, the Mainland China has routinely dispatched aircraft and ships to carry out routine activities in the identified areas of its design. The cruise has put Japan under a lot of pressure, and the relationship between China and Japan has swayed to the bottom. Japan has also taken precautions against the threat posed by mainland China in response to China’s airspace (air defense identification zone) infringing on the annual increase in defense and defense budget. Since Mainland China has been committed to economic development in recent years and has had interdependent economic interests with the United States and Japan, it can only drive Japan back to "shelving disputes, joint development, and mutual benefit" through the game behavior of the sea and air surrounding the East China Sea.2018 is the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese Treaty of Peace and Friendship. Mainland China also lowered the frequency of cruise in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone in 2017. The relationship between China and Japan has been to the freezing point in 2012 due to the "nationalization" of Diaoyutai. The two sides released goodwill, which gradually warmed up the relationship, and finally hoped for the spring in 2018. Therefore, the regional tension caused by the study of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone is not a security crisis in East Asia; and the demarcation of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone is not the trigger for the armed conflicts between the United States, China and Japan, because the loss of national interest for the three parties cannot be estimated.

參考文獻


一、中文部分
(一)專書
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