我國外幣保單影響解約率因素之分析:以S公司美元計價保單為例

近幾年來，我國保險商品越來越多元，從單一台幣計價保險商品拓展至開放外幣保險商品，其中又以美元、澳幣、人民幣等計價保險商品讓消費者接受度較高。過去有關保單解約率的文獻，多以台幣幣別計價的保險商品作為分析對象，較少討論外幣保單解約率的相關影響因素。本論文研究目的是使用國內某間壽險公司2009 年至2011 年所發行的美元計價保單為樣本，探討美元計價保單解約率影響因素。本研究設立三個模型，模型一選定保單預定利率為3.75%、躉繳保單、保單有效期間未滿10 年的樣本進行羅吉斯廻歸分析，模型二選定保單預定利率為4%、六年繳費保單、保單有效期間為20 年的樣本進行羅吉斯廻歸分析，模型三則為全部樣本進行羅吉斯廻歸分析；所得到的實證結果如下： (1) 模型一實證結果顯示銀行通路、被保險人為女性、保險期間較長、保險金額較低，則外幣保單的解約率較低。 (2) 模型二實證結果顯示傳統業務員通路、被保險人為女性、保險金額較高，則外幣保單的解約率較低。 (3) 模型三實證結果顯示銀行通路、被保險人為女性、保險金額較高、保險期間較長，則外幣保單的解約率較低，而且2010 年與2011 年保單較2009 年解約率較高。 (4) 不同類型與條件之外幣保單，影響解約率的因素可能有所差異。

關鍵字

解約率；外幣保單；行銷通路

並列摘要

In recent years, as insurance products have become more diversified, more foreign currency insurance products issued in life insurance market. There are several types of foreign currency insurance policies including measured by US dollars, Australian dollars, and Renminbi (China currency). The previous studies often invetiagted the cancellation rate of Taiwanese currency-denominated insurance policies, and rarely discussed the relevant factors affecting the cancellation rate of foreign currency insurance policies. The purpose of this paper is to use the foreign currency insurance policies issued by a domestic life insurance company from 2009 to 2011, as a sample to explore the factors affecting the cancellation rate of foreign currency insurance policy. In this study, three models were established. Model 1 selected a sample with a predetermined interest rate of 3.75%, a policy for once payment, and a policy period of less than 10 years for the analysis of logistic regression. The model 2 selected a sample with a predetermined interest rate of 4% and six years of payment for the analysis of logistic regression. The model 3 utilized all sample to conduct the logistic regression model. The empirical results are shown as follows: 1. The empirical results based on model 1 show that the bank channel, the insured is female, the insurance period is longer, and the insurance amount is lower, the foreign currency insurance policy has a lower cancellation rate. 2. The empirical results of Model 2 show that the traditional salesperson channel, the insured is female, and the insurance amount is higher, the foreign currency insurance policy has a lower cancellation rate. 3. The empirical results of Model 3 show that the bank channel, the insured is female, the insurance amount is higher, and the insurance period is longer, the cancellation of foreign currency insurance policy is lower. Furthermore, the foreign currency insurance policies issued in 2010 and 2011 have higher cancellation rate than in 2009. 4. Different types and conditions of foreign currency insurance policies may have differnet imapact on the cancellation rate.