航空產業屬於公共運輸事業,為國家整體運輸的一環,其投入營運成本及資金相當龐大,又因為具有國際運輸性質,在經營上深受外在環境因素影響。基於以上的產業特性,使得航空業有著比一般產業更複雜的財務管理及營運成本結構。故本研究擬針對幾個重要的總體經濟因素,來探討其對於航空公司營運績效的影響,讓公司能在財務調整中有更好的規劃,使航空公司能永續經營,以確保社會大眾的利益,並創造國家經濟來源。 本研究觀察期間為2003年至2017年共15年的季資料,以國內兩大航空公司:華航、長榮航為研究對象,探討布蘭特原油價格(OIL)、美元兌新台幣匯率(USD)、消費者物價指數(CPI)、景氣領先指標綜合指數(LEAD)及波羅的海指數(BDI)對於航空公司之資產報酬率(ROA)、股東權益報酬率(ROE)及股價報酬率(R)影響。 相關總體變數影響如下:(一)華航:消費者物價指數、波羅的海綜合指數及虛擬變數D對資產報酬率有顯著正相關,布蘭特原油價格及波羅的海綜合指數對股東權益報酬率有顯著正相關;長榮航:波羅的海綜合指數及虛擬變數D對資產報酬率有顯著正相關,波羅的海綜合指數及虛擬變數D對股東權益報酬率有顯著正相關。(二)華航:布蘭特原油價格及美元兌新台幣匯率對股價報酬有顯著負相關,景氣領先指標綜合指數及波羅的海綜合指數對股價報酬有顯著正相關;長榮航:布蘭特原油價格及美元兌新台幣匯率對股價報酬有顯著負相關,波羅的海綜合指數對股價報酬有顯著正相關。
With huge amount of investment and operation cost inputted, aviation industry, as a public transportation industry having the characteristics of cross-border transition, has always been significantly affected by external environmental factors. Basing on characteristics of above, aviation industry, comparing with general industry, has much more complicated financial and cost structure. This study aims to investigate the effect of several critical macroeconomic factors on airline companies’ operating performance. The result would improve companies’ plan in financial management which does great help to sustainable development and benefits mass society and increases sources of finance. The study observes quarterly financial reports of China Airlines and EVA Air from 2003 to 2017 and discuss Brent Crude oil prices(OIL), exchange rates for USD to NTD(USD), Consumer Price Index(CPI), the effects of Composite leading Index(LEAD) & Baltic Dry Index(BDI) & Dummy variables(D) on airline companies’ Return On Assets(ROA), Return On Equity(ROE) and Return on stock price(R). The study indicates that effects of Macroeconomic factors as follows: (1)China Airlines:CPI, BDI & D have strong positive correlation with ROA. OIL & BDI have strong positive correlation with ROE. EVA Air:BDI & D have strong positive correlation with ROA. BDI & D have strong positive correlation with ROE. (2)China Airlines:OIL & USD have strong negative correlation with R. The effects of LEAD & BDI have strong positive correlation with R. EVA Air:OIL & USD have strong negative correlation with R. BDI has strong positive correlation with R.