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  • 學位論文

探討台灣期權市場短時間內有相當漲跌時介入之投資策略

The investment strategy for investing futures and options instruments during the rising and falling prices in the very short run.

指導教授 : 倪衍森

摘要


由於近兩年金融海嘯肆虐使得全球投資人風聲鶴唳,風吹草動皆可能造成資本市場的巨幅震盪,使得許多投資人心驚膽顫。是以投資人提高趨避風險避險的意識,而且若是以投機介入衍生性金融商品市場也會更加地戒慎地來為之。此外若投資期權標的物,則由期權標的高槓桿特性,所以投資者以當日平倉來避免明日未知的風險居多。此外投機者介入期權商品也找出可以提高獲利的可能性,是以本研究乃是探討當期貨短時間有急漲急跌的情況發生下,考量各種介入、考量停利停損與否且在考量風險之當日平倉是否有利可圖為本研究探討的課題。結果顯示5分鐘下跌20點時,僅設停損點的策略有最佳的獲利,而選擇權則以5分鐘內漲10點時介入有最佳獲利。有此結果後我們可以將此模型做程式交易,實際運用於資本市場,由於此模型無須留倉、也不會有情緒干擾因素,故可以在減少投資人的壓力的同時達到獲利的目的。

關鍵字

期貨 選擇權 投資策略

並列摘要


Recently, finance tsunami spread across all over the world in these years, which causes huge volatilities happened in the worldwide capital markets. So, investors would pay more attention to investment risk then before. Thus, some investors would concern the hedge, and other investors might try to figure out how to make profit by employing derivative commodities with care. In addition, the derivatives are high financial leverage financial commodities, so market participant would employ day trade transaction, namely, offset open interests in a day, to prevent uncontrolled risk happened. In addition, speculators would figure out what strategies would lift up the possibility of making profit; therefore, this study investigates that investors adopt the daily trading approach by taking long /short strategies, stop loss or stop gain into account, while futures prices lift up or drop down sharply in the short time. The studied result shows that investor would make profit by taking a long position for index futures, when futures price decline 20 points in five minutes. Moreover, investor would make profit by taking a long position for index call option, when futures price raise 10 points in five minutes. Therefore, the results suggest investors might employ computer program trading in the real world, since the program trading would not only get rid of the emotion stirred by the volatilities of capital markets, but also reduce the pressure of market participants.

並列關鍵字

Futures Options Investing Strategies

參考文獻


王高文、毛維凌 (2004),「單一方程式共整合-GARCH模型:台灣股市之
王健聰、許溪南 (2002),「市場不完美度與股價指數期貨定價關係的一些理
王毓敏 (2004),「指數期貨交易與股票市場波動性-短期與長期分析」
吳明政、王南喻 (2006),「台灣認購權證評價模式之實證研究:運用跳躍-
呂桔誠、廖四郎、王昭文 (2003),「組合型選擇權之評價及其在投資組合避

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