影響中國鋼鐵產量因素之研究:以2000-2007年之Panel Data 實證分析

從1996年中國鋼鐵產量突破1億噸起，中國鋼鐵產量已連續10多年居世界第一位。2007年中國粗鋼產量達4.89億噸，不僅是全球第一，且產量超過第二到第八的總和，佔全球總產量的近37%。這樣大的產量因而引發許多學者的研究與討論，其最主要之目的多為預測中國鋼材之需求。而研究也多傾向對中國總體鋼材需求之探討，較缺少影響鋼材需求因素與各地區鋼材產量間關係之研究，故本研究利用Panel Data 模型，希望得出影響鋼材消費之因素對鋼材產量之影響。本研究之另一主題為中國鋼材價格與全球鋼材價格之互動關係，依據Dou Bin(2007)的研究認為，中國對全球鋼鐵市場價格具有長期或均衡的關係，而反過來全球鋼鐵價格指數對中國卻沒有這樣的關係。亦即中國的鋼鐵價格指數對全球鋼鐵價格指數具有單向的影響作用，中國前期的鋼鐵價格指數對當期全球的鋼鐵價格指數具有影響，然隨著時間的改變中國鋼鐵價格指數與全球鋼鐵價格指數，是否仍為單向關係。另外，利用向量自迴規模型與自迴規模型來探討全球鋼鐵當期價格指數對中國鋼材價格指數之影響。實證研究發現，各地區的經濟發展、固定資產投資及工業總產值對鋼材產量之提升均有很顯著之差異，然上述三個變量對鋼材產量的提升效果並非是最明顯的，影響地區鋼材產量最明顯的變數為第二產業所佔比重，對於鋼材產量的提升影響較大，因而可看出影響鋼材產量的主要因素為第二產業所佔比重的變化。另外，隨著時間的變遷中國與世界鋼鐵價格指數間具雙向互動關係，且影響中國鋼鐵價格指數之因素亦會影響全球鋼鐵價格指數，故從本研究得知，影響全球及中國鋼價格指數之因素為國際原物料之上漲；其次，對中國鋼鐵價格指數及全球鋼鐵價格指數影響較大的，均為其自身前一期的價格指數。

關鍵字

中國鋼材產量；鋼材價格指數；追蹤資料；固定效果

並列摘要

Since 1996, China 's steel production exceeded 100 million tons. China 's steel output has been for 10 consecutive years ranking the first in the world. In 2007 China 's crude steel output reached 489 million tons, nearly to 37% of global production. The amount is not only is the first, but also more than sum of the second to the eighth. The large number of research and discussion attempted to predict demand for steel in China . There is lack of demand factors influencing production of steel and few relations of various regions. So the study uses the Panel Data Models to explore the factors influencing steel consumption on the impact of steel production. This study attempted to clarify the relation of China and global steel price index. Dou Bin (2007) found that China’s and global steel prices have a long-term equilibrium. China's steel price index influence global steel price index, but there is not significantly influence with global steel price index toward China's. We re-examined the relation of China and global steel prices index, and focused that previous steel price index has an impact on current global steel price index. Through useing of vector auto-regression model and Linear Regression models, this study explored the impact of the previous and current global steel price index and China's previous steel index on the current China's steel price index. Empirical study found that the regional economic development, fixed asset investment and industrial output value have are very significant differences on increase of steel production. However, there is not significant. The most significant influencing factor is the proportion of secondary industry that greater positive impacts on steel production. Finally, China and the world steel price index in a two-way interaction between, and the impact of China 's steel price index factors would affect the global steel price index. This study suggested that the influencing factors of global and Chinese steel price index are the rise of international raw materials; Secondly, the influencing factors of China and the global steel price index factors are their own price index for the previous period.

並列關鍵字

China steel production ； steel price index ； panel data ； fix effect

參考文獻

2、李柏融，「中國電力消費之實證分析」，(碩士論文，淡江大學，2009)

1、Dou Bin(2007)，“The Empirical Study on Dynamic Relationship between Domestic and Global Steel Price”.The National Social Science Fund of China sponsor.no20

2、Shao Qiujun & Zhang Qun.(2008) ,“Evaluation on sustainable development of China’s iron and steel industry”. International Symposiums on Information Processing,no.94

一、中文部分