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Reduced tuberculosis case notification associated with scaling up antiretroviral treatment in rural Malawi

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OBJECTIVE: To report on the trends in new and recurrent tuberculosis (TB) case notifications in a rural district of Malawi that has embarked on large-scale roll-out of antiretroviral treatment (ART).

METHODS: Descriptive study analysing TB case notification and ART enrolment data between 2002 and 2009.

RESULTS: There were a total of 10 070 new and 755 recurrent TB cases. ART scale-up started in 2003, and by 2007 an estimated 80% ART coverage had been achieved and was sustained thereafter. For new TB cases, an initial increase in case notifications in the first years after starting ART (2002–2005) was followed by a highly significant and sustained decline from 259 to 173 TB cases per 100 000 population (χ2 for trend 261, P < 0.001, cumulative reduction for 2005–2009 = 33%, 95%CI 27–39). For recurrent TB, the initial increase was followed by a significant drop, from 20 to 15 cases/100 000 (χ2 for linear trend = 8.3, P = 0.004, constituting a 25% (95%CI 9–49) cumulative reduction between 2006 and 2009. From 2005 to 2009, ART averted an estimated 1164 (95%CI 847–1480) new TB cases and 78 (95%CI 23–151) recurrent TB cases.

CONCLUSIONS: High ART implementation coverage is associated with a very significant declining trend in new and recurrent TB case notifications at population level.

Keywords: ART; Malawi; TB; case notification; scale-up

Document Type: Regular Paper

Affiliations: 1: Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), Medical Department (Operational Research), MSF-Luxembourg, Brussels Operational Centre, Luxembourg 2: Médecins Sans Frontières, Thyolo District, Thyolo, Malawi 3: National TB Control Programme, District Health Services, Ministry of Health and Population, Thyolo District, Malawi 4: Analysis and Advocacy Unit, Médecins Sans Frontières, Brussels Operational Centre, Brussels, Belgium 5: Regional TB Office and Central Monitoring and Evaluation Unit, Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi 6: National TB Control Programme, Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi 7: International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Paris, France; and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK

Publication date: 01 July 2011

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